Prague Economic Papers 2010, 19(3):218-235 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.373

Turkey and the European Union: Possible Incidence of the EU Accession on Migration Flows

Ondøej Glazar1, Wadim Strielkowski2
1 Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University in Prague, Opletalova 26, CZ-11000 Praha 1, CR (ondra.glazar@seznam.cz).
2 Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University in Prague, Opletalova 26, CZ-11000 Praha 1, CR and University of Nottingham, University Park, NG72RD, Nottingham, UK (strielkowski@fsv.cuni.cz, wadim.strielkowski@nottingham.ac.uk).

This paper analyzes possible incidence of Turkish EU accession on the emigration from Turkey to the European Union. Panel data estimators are applied on the emigration data from EU-18 into Germany in order to construct possible future scenarios of Turkish migration to the EU. Eventual migration flows from Turkey into the EU are forecasted based on the estimated results. We find that seemingly unrelated regressor is the most efficient estimator that can be applied in Turkey-EU migration framework. Our results reveal that both the network effect and target country labour market conditions represent the strongest determinants for migration, whilst the effect of per capita income is actually relatively low. In particular, Turkish per capita income does not have nearly any effect on migration, because it enters the model in two variables that work against each other. Furthermore, a very low importance of opening the German labour market for Turkish migrants is found. Estimated coefficients are used to predict migrations to Germany, and through appropriate extrapolations to the whole European Union (EU). Three scenarios of migration are created and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from Turkey into the Germany during next 25 years is further discussed in detail.

Keywords: EU enlargement, panel data, economy of migration, Turkey, seemingly unrelated regression
JEL classification: C33, F15, F22, J11, J6

Published: January 1, 2010  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Glazar, O., & Strielkowski, W. (2010). Turkey and the European Union: Possible Incidence of the EU Accession on Migration Flows. Prague Economic Papers, 19(3), 218-235. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.373
Download citation
  • BibTeX (.bib)
  • Bookends (.ris)
  • EasyBib (.ris)
  • EndNote (.enw)
  • EndNote 8 (.xml)
  • ISI WoS (.isi)
  • Medlars (.medlars)
  • Mendeley (.ris)
  • MODS (.xml)
  • Papers (.ris)
  • RefWorks (.txt)
  • RefManager (.ris)
  • RIS (.ris)
  • MS Word (.xml)
  • Zotero (.ris)
    • Open full article

    References

    1. Alvarez-Plata, P., Brücker, H., Siliverstovs, B. (2003), "Potential Migration from Central and Eastern Europe into the EU-15 - an Update." DIW Berlin.
    2. AMECO (2008), AMECO database. http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/indicators/annual_macro_economic_database
    3. Baltagi, B. (2002), Econometrics. 3rd edition, Springer-Verlag. Go to original source...
    4. Baltagi, B. (2005), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. 3rd Edition. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
    5. Boeri, T., Brücker, H. (2000), "The Impact of Eastern Enlargement on Employment and Labour Markets in the EU Member States." European integrated consortium, Berlin and Milan.
    6. Boeri, T., Brücker, H. (2001), "Eastern Enlargement and EU-Labour Markets: Perceptions, Challenges and Opportunities." World Economics.
    7. Boeri, T., Brücker, H. (2005), "Migration, Co-ordination Failures and EU Enlargement." German Institute of Economic Research Paper No. 481. Berlin. Go to original source...
    8. Derviº, K., Gros, D., Öztrak, F., Iºik, Y. (2004), "Turkey and the European Budget - Prospects and Issues." EU-Turkey Working Paper No. 6.
    9. Dustmann, C., Casanova, M., Fertig, I., Preston, I., Schmidt, C. (2003), "The Impact of EU Enlargement on Migration Flows." Home Office Report 25/03.
    10. Erzan, K., Kuzubas, U., Yildiz, N. (2004), "Growth and Immigration Scenarios for Turkey and the EU". EU-Turkey Working Paper No. 13, December 2004.
    11. Eurostat (2004-2009), Eurostat Labour and Miigration Statistics. Available at: www.http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu.
    12. Faini, R., Venturini, A. (1995), "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe." CEPR Discussion Paper No. 964.
    13. Flam, H. (2004), "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession." CESifo Economic Studies, Vol. 50, 1/2004, 171-210. Go to original source...
    14. Güngör, N., D., Tansel, A. (2006), "Brain Drain from Turkey: An Investigation of Students' Return Intentions." IZA DP No. 2287.
    15. Harris, J., Todaro, M. (1970), "Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two-sector Analysis." The American Economic Review, Vol. 60, No. 1 (1970), 126-142.
    16. Içduygu, A. (2003), "Irregular Migration in Turkey."; IOM publication, Bilkent University Turkey. Go to original source...
    17. Im, K. S., Pesaran, M., Shin, Y. (2003), "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels." Journal of Econometrics, 53-74, 115. Go to original source...
    18. Kirisci, K. (2003), "Turkey: A Transformation form Emigration to Immigration." Centre for European Studies, Bogazici University.
    19. Lammers, K. (2006), "The EU and Turkey - Economic Effects of Turkey's Full Membership." Intereconomics.
    20. Lejour, A., de Mooij, M., Capel, C.H. (2004), "Assessing the Economic Implications of Turkish Accession to the EU." CPB.
    21. Marguiles, R. (1996), "Turkey and the European Union." Middle East Report, No. 199, Turkey: Insolvent Ideologies, Fractured State (Apr. - Jun., 1996). Go to original source...
    22. Martin, P., Midgley, E., Teitelbaum, M. (2001), "Migration and Development: Focus on Turkey." International Migration Review, Vol. 35, No. 2 (Summer, 2001), pp. 596-605. Go to original source...
    23. Meltem Miiftiiler-Bac (1997), Turkey's Relations with a Changing Europe. Manchester: Manchester University Press.
    24. OECD (2009), OECD database: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/
    25. Quaisser, W., Wood, S. (2004), "EU Member Turkey? Preconditions, Consequences and Integration Alternatives." Forost Arbeitspapier No.25, Munich.
    26. Sayari, S. (1986), "Migration Policies of Sending Countries: Perspectives on the Turkish Experience." Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences, Vol. 485. From "Foreign Workers to Settlers? Trans-national Migration and the Emergence of New Minorities" (May, 1986), pp. 87-97. Go to original source...
    27. Sayek, S., Selover, D. (2002), "International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission between Turkey and the European Union". Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 69, No. 2 (Oct., 2002). Go to original source...
    28. Sjaastad, L. (1962), "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration", Journal of Political Economy, 70, 80-93. Go to original source...
    29. SORT (2008), Statistical Office of the Republic of Turkey: www.turkstat.gov.tl
    30. Statistisches Bundesamt (2006), Structurdaten zur Migrantion in Deutschland. Wiesbaden.
    31. The Central Bank of Republic Turkey (2009), Statistics. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/eng/
    32. The World Bank (2009), Population projections. http://web.worldbank.org/
    33. Ulgen, S., Zahariadis, Y. (2004), "The Future of Turkey-EU Trade Relations: Deepening vs. Widening." EU-Turkey Working Paper No. 5, CEPS, Brussels.
    34. United Nations (2008), Population Projections http://esa.un.org/unpp.
    35. Völker, G. (1976), "Turkish Labour Migration to Germany: Impact on Both Economies." Middle Eastern Studies, Vol. 12, No. 1 (Jan., 1976), pp. 45-72. Go to original source...

    This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.


    Return to the content