E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and CreditReturn

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Conceptualization of Historical Time in Post Keynesian Economics

Zdeněk Chytil, Lukáš Máslo

Prague Economic Papers 2017, 26(4):397-421 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.619

The paper deals with a problem of conceptualization of historical time in Post Keynesian models. The authors introduce a new notion that they call hysteretic persistence, which they see as essential because such a phenomenon as path-dependence in the short-run equilibrium cannot be described by the existing of notions of hysteresis and persistence. In the field of system (ir)reversibility, drawing upon their previous research (Chytil, Máslo, 2014, 2015), the authors introduce a new notion of general reversibility, which they justify on the account that such phenomena as a shock - counter-shock sequence in both hysteretic-persistent and hysteretic systems cannot be described by either of Setterfield's (2008) notions of super-reversibility and irreversibility. Questioning Setterfield's (1998b, 1995) only too general dichotomy of lower/higher level of historical time, the authors rather suggest a characterization of historical time based on 6 attributes of "high-level" historical time based on the criteria of path-(in)dependence of equilibrium and (ir)reversibility. The suggested attributes underlie the authors' conceptualization scale which enables an assessment of a degree of "historicity" of any system. Finally, a practical application of the concept of hysteretic persistence is demonstrated on a case of Lavoie's PKA model (Lavoie, 2006) affected by a transitory demand shock. Setting the hysteretic persistence of Lavoie's PKA model into the conceptualization scale, the authors draw conclusions for a degree of "historicity" of this system.

Can the Taylor Rule be a Good Guidance for Policy? The Case of 2001-2008 Real Estate Bubble

Mateusz Machaj

Prague Economic Papers 2016, 25(4):381-395 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.573

John Taylor (2009) argues that if the Federal Reserve had followed his famous monetary-policy rule, the severe recession that resulted from the real estate bubble could have been avoided. While one may agree with Taylor's empirical analysis and accept his demonstration that his proposed rule would lead to a more stable economic environment, it is unclear whether central banks are capable of avoiding bubbles by simply following the Taylor rule. One can construct various Taylor rules from the data. Some of those rules model what the Federal Reserve actually did. Following the specific type of Taylor rule recommended by John Taylor would in fact amount to a better monetary policy, but only because it calls for setting interest rates higher. In the second section, we introduce Taylor rules. In the third section, we apply these rules to monetary policy since 2001. The fourth section situates the Taylor rule in the Wicksellian framework of interest rates and macroeconomic stability. In the fifth section, we discuss the effects of policy rules on macroeconomic stability.

The credit crisis: what lessons for Visegrad?

Colin Lawson, Emília Zimková

Prague Economic Papers 2009, 18(2):99-113 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.344

The origins, growth and importance of the 2007-2009 American and European credit crisis are analysed. The causes lie in the speculative bubbles, the changed attitudes to domestic property, the growth of securitisation and derivatives trading, the changing roles of financial institutions, poor policy choices and inadequate regulation. The Visegrad states are being affected by declining export markets that have triggered domestic recessions, and growing credit problems. The recession is especially penalising economies they have followed risky policies. The course of the recession is currently impossible to predict. But it is possible for these states to draw on the regulatory lessons inflicted on others, and to respond to the challenge of co-regulating the international banks that dominate their domestic markets, and which while too large to fail, are also too large to rescue unaided.

Montenegrin Quarterly Macroeconomic Econometric Model

Štiblar Franjo, Oplotnik Žan, Vukotić Veselin

Prague Economic Papers 2006, 15(2):156-171 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.282

Specific features of quarterly econometric model for Montenegro are dealing with the euroization of the economy, de facto separation of Montenegrin economy from Serbian economy. The model is specified with final demand as driving force of the economic growth, but, in addition, with some specific detail of supply side economics regarding negative role of government expenditures and taxation on some forms of activity. Key features of the model are: inclusion of relevant real and financial sectors of the economy, estimation of labour and capital market, division of labour market on tradable and non-tradable part, creation of activity variable in addition to industrial production and identifying final demand as driving force of the economy. Special features are connected with peculiarities of Montenegrin economy, which include lack of domestic currency and fiscal restraint following Maastricht criteria. Model enables the analysis of measures of monetary, fiscal and some employment policy. The ultimate goal of building model was to describe functioning of Montenegrin economy which needs to be better understood by authorities (government, central bank). Next, model is intended to help identifying and quantifying appropriate measures of economic policy; their quantification should be consistent with the major economic goals authorities declared in their yearly economic policy resolutions.

Effects of Macroeconomic Policies and Stock Market Performance on the Estonian Economy

Yu Hsing

Prague Economic Papers 2005, 14(2):109-116 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.256

Based on a general equilibrium model, this study finds that real output in Estonia is positively associated with real quantity of money and negatively influenced by real depreciation of the kroon, real stock prices, and the expected inflation rate. Government deficit spending is found to be insignificant. Policy implications are that fiscal discipline pursued by the Estonian government is appropriate, that a stronger currency may better serve Estonia, and that the wealth effect of an increase in the stock price on real money balances is greater than the substitution effect.

Impacts of Macroeconomic Policies on Output in the Czech Republic: An Application of Romer's ISMP-IA Model

Yu Hsing

Prague Economic Papers 2004, 13(4):339-345 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.246

Extending Romer's IS-MP-IA model to include foreign trade and exchange rates and applying the GARCH method, the study came to the conclusion that real gross domestic product is negatively associated with the inflation rate, exchange rate depreciation, and the foreign interest rate and positively affected by government deficit spending and world output. Therefore, inflation targeting is an appropriate monetary policy, and the depreciation of the koruna would be harmful to the Czech economy even though it would help the export sector.