Politická ekonomie 2015, 63(3):279-299 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1003

Makroekonometrický model eurozóny

Ondřej Čížek
Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze.

Macroeconometric Model of the Eurozone

The aim of this paper is the formulation and econometric estimation of a small macroeconomic model, which is intended to provide an understanding of fundamental economic relationships in the eurozone. Unemployment is used to represent real economic activity. Phillips curve links unemployment with infl ation and Taylor rule describes the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. The results from econometric estimation indicate that interest rate policy of the European Central Bank has only a very limited effect on unemployment. Furthermore, the reaction coeffi cient for infl ation in the Taylor rule does not support Taylor principle. This paper also presents original method for measuring NAIRU. The proposed method for estimating NAIRU uses probabilities of fi nding and loosing a job. These probabilities are made endogenous in the model, which is the main contribution of the paper.

Keywords: unemployment, Taylor rule, Phillips curve, NAIRU, monetary policy, macroeconometric modeling
JEL classification: E31, E32, E58

Published: June 1, 2015  Show citation

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Čížek, O. (2015). Macroeconometric Model of the Eurozone. Politická ekonomie, 63(3), 279-299. doi: 10.18267/j.polek.1003
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