Politická ekonomie 2004, 52(2) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.456

Využití metody peněžního převisu/deficitu k indikaci inflačních rizik (přístup Evropské centrální banky)

Josef Arlt, Milan Guba, Štěpán Radkovský

Implementation of monetary overhang/shortfall measure for indication of inflation risks (the approach of the European Central Bank)

The ECB concept of analysis of deviation of actual money stock development from its long run equilibrium development is based on the assumption that bigger deviation signalizes risks for the price stability. The ECB considers three measures of this deviation: nominal money gap, real money gap and monetary overhang/shortfall. The calculation of gap between the actual and the equilibrium development of money stock in nominal and real expression is not reasonable at the present time in Czech Republic. The calculation of monetary overhang/shortfall, which is based on the long run equilibrium value of money stock given by model of money demand, seems to be more employable.

Keywords: inflation, money demand, cointegration, monetary overhang/shortfall
JEL classification: C32, E41, E58

Published: April 1, 2004  Show citation

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Arlt, J., Guba, M., & Radkovský, Š. (2004). Implementation of monetary overhang/shortfall measure for indication of inflation risks (the approach of the European Central Bank). Politická ekonomie, 52(2), . doi: 10.18267/j.polek.456
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