Politická ekonomie, 2002 (vol. 50), issue 3
Articles
Rok 2002: zpomalí česká ekonomika?
The year 2002 in the czech economy: a slowdown?
Kamil Janáček, Eva Zamrazilová
Politická ekonomie 2002, 50(3) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.362
Economic growth continued despite overall slowdown of world economy in 2001, due to strong domestic demand. Inflationary pressures remained under control as well as external imbalance. Czech exporters proved to be able to compete on demanding world markets even under weak demand and strong exchange rate of CZK. Strong inflow of FDI and solid macroeconomic fundamentals have been the main factors behind the strengthening of the Czech currency which seems to be resistant to monetary policy steps. Trends in the Czech economy in 2002 will be strongly determined by the timing and intensity of economic recovery in the US and Western Europe. Anyway, both parts...
Analýza vývoje české ekonomiky v roce 2001 a výhled na rok 2002 a 2003
Analysis of czech economic development in the year of 2001 and outlook for 2002 and 2003
Petr Dufek, Marián Vávra, Milan Václavík
Politická ekonomie 2002, 50(3) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.363
This paper evaluates Czech economic development during 2001 and is supplemented by the predictions of basic economic indicators for 2002 and 2003. This article is divided in to several specific parts. In the beginning we focus on economic growth, including a marginal analysis of GDP and industrial production. It is possible to find a detailed net inflation analysis in Chapter two which consists of an explanation of current demand and supply factors and then we present an econometric estimate of the net inflation equation. This Chapter includes impulse-response analysis also. Raw material dependency and the intensity of Czech production is analyzed...
Česká ekonomika a euro
The czech economy and the euro
Oldřich Dědek
Politická ekonomie 2002, 50(3) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.364
The article discusses issues concerning the prospects for euro adoption in the Czech economy. Once the Czech Republic becomes the member of the EU, it also must become - sooner or later - the member of the EMU. There are not too many options: in fact the freedom is only in the speed of euro adoption and partly in the bargaining about the central parity upon entering the ERM2. The article discusses objections regarding the sacrifice of autonomous monetary policy and similarly the problem of the nominal vs. real convergence. It further summarises major insights of the optimum currency area approach. The author does not find any strong arguments against...
Slabá forma efektivnosti českého akciového trhu
Weak-form efficiency test in the czech equity market
Jan Hájek
Politická ekonomie 2002, 50(3) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.365
This study tests the hypothesis of the weak form of capital market efficiency in the Czech Republic. Select statistical-econometric methods were applied to time series of daily, weekly and two-week stock and indices returns over 1995 - 2001. Results from Serial Correlation, Box-Pierce, and Variance Ratio tests provide evidence that a random-walk hypothesis cannot be validated with respect to the daily returns. The weak form of efficiency on the Czech equity market was not thus proved. However, positive development toward higher efficiency was identified. Since the launching of a new price-driven market system (SPAD) on the Prague Stock Exchange - based...
Teorie krize platební bilance a česká zkušenost
The theory of balance of payments crisis and the czech experience
Jan Čermák
Politická ekonomie 2002, 50(3) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.366
This paper presents an analysis of the speculative attack on the pegged exchange rate of the CZK in the context of the classical theory of balance of payments crises. While provides a survey of the theoretical trends in the economic literature, the paper introduces a detail description of the first-generation model of the currency crises theory developed by Krugman, Flood and Garber. In the empirical section, using the index of exchange market pressure, the author identifies the Czech currency crisis as a relatively mild. The article then discusses behaviour of a variety macroeconomic and structural indicators before and after the speculative attack...
Aplikované modely všeobecné rovnováhy
Applied general equilibrium models
Jan Brůha
Politická ekonomie 2002, 50(3) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.367
This article focuses on applied general equilibrium models and explores main features of these models. Examples of successful applications of these models are demonstrated and appropriateness of the applied computable general equilibrium models in policy evaluation is assessed. Conditions of existence and uniqueness of an equilibrium are considered and techniques for finding such an equilibrium are discussed. The task of calibration of parameters for these models is dealt with. Dynamic forms of applied equilibrium models are shown to be useful tools for policy evaluation.
Český trh práce ve druhé polovině 90. let
The czech labor market in the second half of the nineties
Tomáš Sirovátka, Martin Žižlavský
Politická ekonomie 2002, 50(3) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.368
The paper analyses the developments on the Czech labor market in 1996 - 2000 from the perspective of economic adjustment: employment, unemployment and active labor market policies. On the one hand increasing economic pressures intensified the pace of the changes. On the other hand signals of hysteresis on the supply-side of the labor market may be identified: worsening efficiency of job-search, growth of long-term unemployment, increasing level of NAIRU. Since the flexibility of the labor markets seems to be crucial for successful economic adjustment and economic growth within contemporary de-industrialized and globalized economy, role of active labor...
Consultations
Vytěsňovací efekt v konstituční politice
The crowding out effect in the constitutional policy
Petr Chmelík
Politická ekonomie 2002, 50(3) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.369
The motivation crowding out effect suggests that external intervention via monetary incentives or punishments may undermine, and under different identifiable conditions strengthen, intrinsic motivation. Over the last few years the motivation crowding out effect has been integrated into economic theory and became the subject of discussion about the possibilities of development of more general human behavior model in the non-market economics. This study demonstrates that the effect is also of relevance in the constitutional policy. The methodological possibilities and limits of constitutional economics in the relationship to the motivation crowding out...