Politická ekonomie, 2009 (vol. 57), issue 3

Stane se institucionální ekonomie paradigmatem 21. stoletÍ?

Will the institutional economy become the 21st century paradigm?

Milan Sojka

Politická ekonomie 2009, 57(3):297-304 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.685  

Vizuální nelineární rekurentní analýza

Visual Recurrence Analysis and its Application

Jan Kodera, Tran Van Quang

Politická ekonomie 2009, 57(3):305-322 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.686  

The aim of the article is to answer the question if the Czech stock market price dynamics is generated by non-linear deterministic dynamic process. To solve this complex problem requires using sophisticated computational operations to analyze huge amount of data input. To overcome this obstacle the visual recurrence analysis is applied in this article. This method enables visualization of the state space reconstructed from a time series in the so called recurrent plot. Further, it quantifies various geometric structures occurred in recurrent plots and gives us more exact information about the nature of the underlying process generating the time series....

Od parity kupní síly k natrexu - případ české koruny

From PPP to Natrex - the Case of Czech Crown

Jiří Škop, Jan Vejmělek

Politická ekonomie 2009, 57(3):323-343 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.687  

The exchange rate cannot significantly diverge from a (real) long-term equilibrium level consistent with the macroeconomic picture of an economy for a long period of time; otherwise, the economy suffers from macroeconomic imbalances such as below-potential growth and below natural employment, or on the other hand faces overheating of the economy with rising inflation. The paper focuses on different methods of how to measure the long-term equilibrium exchange rate. After a brief discussion of different approaches, the NATREX one was theoretically developed for the case of an open economy and empirically validated for the Czech economy. The NATREX concept...

Systémy měnových kurzů, jejich volba v tranzitivních ekonomikách a dopady na vývoj inflace a ekonomického růstu

Exchange rate regimes in transitive economies and the effect of exchange rate policy on the development of inflation and economic growth

Jaroslava Durčáková

Politická ekonomie 2009, 57(3):344-360 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.688  

In this paper we discuss the issue of the choice of exchange rate regimes in transitive economies and the effect of exchange rate policy on the development of macroeconomic indicators (e. g. the average growth rate of real GDP in domestic currency and the development of domestic inflation). It is obvious that exchange rate policy is not a passive factor, at least in the medium term. Our analysis indicates that the fixed foreign exchange rate arrangements policy does not necessarily mean stability of the foreign exchange rates. Neither percentage exchange rate changes of fixed rates, nor their volatility measured by the standard deviation are lower...

Měnová politika a predikce variability úrokových sazeb na peněžním trhu

Monetary policy and prediction of variability

Karel Brůna

Politická ekonomie 2009, 57(3):361-382 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.689  

This study presents an analysis of the sources of variability of interest rates in the money market in the context of Czech National Bank's (CNB) monetary policy. The factors in question are changes in the structural characteristics of economies in transition, changing perception of inflation risks, the inconsistency of central bank's monetary decisions and central bank's weakened credibility and uncertainty about the efficient transmission of monetary measures. The empirical analysis documents non-stationary variability of ultra short-term PRIBOR interest rates and stability of longer maturity PRIBOR interest rates. These results reflect the role...

Vymezení a vyhodnocení agresivity centrálních bank

Definition and Evaluation of the Central Bank agresivity

Luboš Komárek, Filip Rozsypal

Politická ekonomie 2009, 57(3):383-404 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.690  

This paper examines definitions and assessments of central bank aggressiveness. It shows theoretical reasons why there is certain minimal threshold value if CB wants to stabilize price level and on the other hand, why excessive reactions are suboptimal. The empirical part suggests that aggressiveness could be measured by defining certain indicators, based on variability of interest rates, inflation and output gap. The results are reported for countries with independent monetary policy as well as for countries in the eurozone, which has handed their monetary independency to ECB.

Vývoj teorie parity kupní síly a rovnovážný měnový kurz

Purchasing power parity and the equilibrium exchange rate

Marek Mičúch

Politická ekonomie 2009, 57(3):405-428 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.691  

Paper inquires into historical development of key theoretical concepts related to purchasing power parity in 20th century. It presents theories which explain relation between price level, labor productivity and exchange rate. These theories explain the process of how the long-run equilibrium exchange rate is being achieved. On the other hand it elaborates on short-run exchange rate deviations. As the key factor which cause the deviations identified in the paper is presence of the prices of non-tradable goods in price indexes. Proposed is a case study which clarifies the process of equilibrium exchange rate achieving to emphasis some of the theoretical...