Vliv migrace v prognózách budoucího složení obyvatelstva

This work deals with the question of migration in connection with demographic changes. We can hear, that the migration can be one of the possible solutions to these changes. The aim of this work was to determine whether migration can replace gaps in fertility and contribute to maintaining the existing social system. I tried to find answer through the index of economic burden and the age index. Czech Statistical Office (CSO) calculates projections in three ways and each of them involves a different level of migration. I consider migration as a very difficult estimated value, therefore I calculated own projection without it. It turned out, that the outcome was impressed with the constant parameters, which I chose for my projection. Czech Statistical Office then gave me the projection without migration parameters and with variable values for each region. After converting to the whole country, the indexes indicated a slight deterioration in comparison with projection from CSO including migration. The migration in itself does not lead to deterioration of indexes. Conversely, if migration will be excluded from the calculation, indexes will be slightly worse. This only slight deterioration predicates, that the migration is not real solution to the demographic problems.