Simulační předpovědi české ekonomiky

The thesis is composed of three main parts. The first part is theoretical and I deal here with economic relationships between macroeconomic magnitudes. Second part dedicated to the econometric theory of prognosis follows, in which I deal with different types of prognoses and prediction methods used at present. In the third, practical, part my intended aim is to create the best possible models of relations between fundamental macroeconomic magnitudes, using real Czech economy data, and to make simulation predictions of these magnitudes based on acquired models while utilising scenario analysis. First, I deal with choice of MSE and VAR models. Then follows the estimate of particular models and validation of prognostic capabilities of particular models for static and dynamic simulation. I conclude with elaboration of macroeconomic magnitudes prognosis while using scenario analysis.