Scénáře budoucího vývoje v oblasti Golanských výšin

The Golan Heights represent the area of approximately 1 800 km2, considerable part of which has been occupied by Israel since 1967. Although several rounds of negotiations between representatives of both countries were held, the peace agreement leading to the Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territory was still not reached. For Israel and Syria the land is important for security and political reasons. Thanks to its altitude the region may serve to control large area from the Lebanese border in the north to the Sea of Galilee in the south. The extensive water sources located in the region belonged to the main points of contention during the past negotiations. The course of peace process is also influenced by the distribution of political power in Israel and Syria. In these bachelor thesis three alternatives of future scenarios are made on the basis of different combinations of input factors. In the first of them successful peace negotiations are finished by the peace agreement. In the second scenario negotiations are not followed by an agreement and in the last scenario representatives of Israel and Syria will not held any negotiations at all.