Analýza rizika strategického záměru vybrané organizace

The purpose of this diploma thesis is to create a strategic business plan of VAFO Praha s.r.o., to identify and evaluate the risks associated with the plan and to suggest ways of reducing these risks. The theoretical part of the thesis deals with the description of the basic concepts of strategic and risk management in the organization and provides a methodological basis for the practical part. This is followed by a short presentation of the analyzed company, its strategic starting points and future intentions. In the next step, a strategic analysis of the company is carried out, where the external environment is examined using PESTLE analysis and Porter's five forces model. The internal environment is examined using the analysis of company’s key functional areas and its financial situation. The strategic analysis results are then summarized in the EFE and IFE matrix to provide an input for a deeper analysis of identified risk factors. According to the sensitivity analysis outputs it is clear that the sales price, the exchange rate and the volume produced have the biggest impact on the planned results. The outputs from the Monte Carlo simulation showed a high probability of not achieving the planned financial results compared to the original targets. In conclusion of the thesis, possible ways of treating identified risks are proposed.