Je fiskální politika Spojených států amerických procyklická?

This thesis deals with the phenomenon of fiscal policy cyclicality. Main hypothesis of this article is that fiscal policy of the United States of America is procyclical. The first part of the thesis sets out the theoretical basis of fiscal policy, its forms and functions are also introduced. Next, fiscal multipliers and the crowding-out effect are discussed as factors influencing the effectiveness of fiscal policy. Basic theories of the origin of business cycles and the very position of fiscal policy in stabilizing economic growth are also presented in this part. Last but not least, the theory of political-economic cycle is analyzed as another factor affecting the fiscal policy decisions. The empirical part of the thesis is based on the theoretical basis and uses it to construct two linear regression models, which are then used for a verification of the hypothesis. Annual data from 1990 to 2018 are used for both models. The first model, estimated by the corrected heteroskedasticity method, follows the correlation between the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance and the output gap. The hypothesis of procyclical fiscal policy could not be proved on its basis, as the model pointed more to acyclical policy. To determine the impact of fiscal policy on the labor market, a second model of multiple linear regression is then estimated, where the output gap was replaced by the unemployment gap, as a deviation of the actual unemployment rate from its natural rate. The result of the second model is a strong negative correlation between the unemployment gap and the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance, indicating a counter-cyclical fiscal stance towards the labor market. Thus, the established hypothesis of pro-cyclical fiscal policy of the United States of America could not be confirmed. However, the first model indicated a possible shift from the countercyclical setting shown by previous studies by Fatas and Mihov (2009) or Auerbach (2009).