Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Růžena Vintrová Title: Convergence of real economy in central and eastern european countries on european union Abstract: This paper compares the principal macroeconomic characteristics of the Central European Five (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia), which make up the CEFTA countries without the new member Romania and are referred to as the CEEC-5. Their macroeconomic characteristics can now be compared to the existing European Union members, referred to as the EU-15, thanks to the European Comparison Programmes and the harmonization of statistical methodology with EU countries. This helps to reveal the risks that may be expected when these countries join the EU, in terms of possible undesirable price shocks and weakened competitiveness. The conclusion is that harmonization of familiar macroeconomic criteria (type of the Maastricht's) cannot be separated from harmonization of real economic levels end therefore should not be seen as a rapid process that will follow the same course in every country. This is very clear even in one of the most familiar of all macroeconomic policy issues, the possible trade-off between inflation end growth. Volume: 1998 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/157 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:1998:y:1998:i:4:id:157 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vratislav Izák Title: Monetary transmission mechanism (lending channel) Abstract: The Czech National Bank (CNB) has influenced the money market rates (Pribor) through repo rates effectively. The strong cointegration has been valid for the further step, too - the impact of Pribor rates on the interest rates of newly granted credits.

The expected negative correlation between interest rates on the one side end both investment and newly granted credits have been found, however, the results are not statistically significant.

Industrial production and credits in domestic currency into industry have not been cointegrated. The causality tests say that credits Granger cause industrial production with a time lag of 5 months. Another tool of vector autoregressions - variance decomposition reveals that in forecasting these two variables the variance is influenced by their own dynamics first of all.

More detailed analysis of the credit structure in industry in 1997 shows the increasing ratio of credits in foreign currencies for credits in CZK to avoid the impacts of tight domestic monetary policy. Volume: 1998 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/158 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:1998:y:1998:i:4:id:158 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alena Zemplinerová Title: Impact of foreign direct investment on the restructuring and growth in manufacturing Abstract: Nation-wide firm-level data are used for the time series and cross-section analysis of foreign direct investment in manufacturing on 2digit and 3digit industries. Dynamics of foreign investment enterprises (FIEs) are computed for the period 1993-1996. The performance of FIEs is compared with the domestic enterprises. Related policy issues ere discussed.

Although the share of foreign investment enterprises in the total manufacturing output doubled during the period 1993-96, with 23 % remains relatively low in comparison with Hungary where the respective share in output reached 67 % by 1996. Foreign penetration via equity ownership is low in the industries with excess capacities end need for extensive restructuring such as steel industry or large machinery, chemicals, coke end refinery. Allocation pattern of FIEs differs from domestic enterprises. Foreign investment is more specialised and concentrated than domestic enterprises. Volume: 1998 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/159 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:1998:y:1998:i:4:id:159 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tomáš Sirovátka Title: Social transfers in the period of transformation and their effects Abstract: Individual responsibility and subsidiarity represent more general principles of market transition which are also relevant for social security system. The main goals of transformation of social security systems in transition countries have been defined as follows: more transparency and better targeting which is - considering cost efficiency requirement - necessary condition to protect the citizens against the newly emerging social risks. The question how far the effects of social security system transformation correspond to these claims seems to be extremely politically significant. Volume: 1998 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/160 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:1998:y:1998:i:4:id:160 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anton Abdulbasah Kamil Title: Econometric modelling of indonesian lumber and plywood products industry: a policy simulation analysis Abstract: This study focuses on the Indonesian lumber and plywood products industry and evaluates the impacts of relevant policy alternatives on the domestic economy. An econometric model was outlined which consists of nine behavioral equations, two price linkage equations, two technical production equations and tour market identities to close the system. In the corresponding simultaneous equations, we shell use the two stage system of least squares method to estimate the parameters of the behavioral equations. The effect of 108 % devaluation's policy alternative for period 1983 - 1998 are simulated with an econometric model. The model distinctly features endogenous government policy intervention in the sectoral markets of the Indonesian lumber and plywood product industry. Volume: 1998 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/161 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:1998:y:1998:i:4:id:161