Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tomáš Cahlík Title: Central and east european countries after entering the european union Abstract: This essay is concerned with the long term period, i.e. what will happen after accession to the EU. For those long term analyses, it is practical to identify different phases after accession to the EU - the period before the anticipated participation in the ERM II, the period of participation in the ERM II and the period of membership in the eurozone. These periods bring different costs, benefits and risks and they allow for different possibilities of economic policy, especially monetary policy (exchange rate policy included). The five following issues are dealt with in this essay: the speed of joining the eurozone after accession to the EU, the danger of speculative attacks on local currencies while participating in the ERM II, instability of public finances and its impact, possible real price shocks with their economic consequences and economic growth for convergence with the EU average. Keywords: European Union, fiscal policy, economic growth, monetary policy, price shocks Volume: 2002 Issue: 1 Year: 2002 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/185 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2002:y:2002:i:1:id:185 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alexis Derviz Title: The uncovered parity properties of the czech koruna Abstract: The paper studies the compliance of the CZK - EUR exchange rate with the uncovered parity of returns on assets denominated in the two named currencies. A comparison with the same property for the euro-dollar rate is made. An uncovered total return parity (UTRP) formula is derived from the equilibrium in a portfolio optimization model with liquidity constraints. It is shown that the uncovered parity of total returns, and not of short-term money market rates, is a natural outcome of stochastic equilibrium asset pricing models that generalize the International Consumption-based Capital Asset Pricing Model. Accordingly, the traditional uncovered interest rate parity should be replaced by UTRP in empirical analysis. UTRP tests for the CZK/EUR and the USD/EMU currency pairs are conducted using yields of long-term government bond yields. UTRP typically holds, although the time horizons and measures of exchange rate movements, for which it becomes visible, may vary. Keywords: uncovered parity, asset prices, portfolio optimization, international consumption-based capital asset pricing model Volume: 2002 Issue: 1 Year: 2002 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/186 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2002:y:2002:i:1:id:186 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Josef Arlt Author-Name: Milan Guba Author-Name: Štěpán Radkovský Author-Name: Vladimír Stiller Author-Name: Milan Sojka Title: Selected factors influencing the money demand development in the czech republic in 1994 - 2000 Abstract: The demand for money represents one of the most important components of the transmission mechanism. Its analysis plays an important role in the decision-making process of central banks dealing with monetary policies. This paper follows a post-Keynesian approach to the analysis of the demand for money. The econometric analysis is based on the Arestis's model, adjusted for the conditions of the Czech Republic. The cointegration analysis on the basis of both the VAR and ADL models is applied. The premise is confirmed that the demand for money in the Czech Republic from 1994 - 2000 had developed in the long-run mostly under the influence of GDP and interest rate development. This conclusion is valid for balances in both real and nominal money. Keywords: money demand, time series, econometric model, cointegration analysis Volume: 2002 Issue: 1 Year: 2002 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/187 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2002:y:2002:i:1:id:187 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jan Mišun Author-Name: Vladimír Tomšík Title: Foreign direct investment in central europe - does it crowd in domestic investment? Abstract: In this article, we tried to estimate whether foreign direct investment in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland crowds in or crowds out domestic investment. We used a model of total investment that introduced, from the point of view of the recipient country, foreign direct investment as an exogenous variable. We found that for the time period 1990 - 2000 there was an evidence of crowding out effect in Poland. In Hungary we found a crowding in effect for the time period 1990 - 2000 as well as for the Czech Republic for the time period 1993 - 2000. Keywords: investment, foreign direct investment, investment incentives, crowding in effect, crowding out effect Volume: 2002 Issue: 1 Year: 2002 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/188 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2002:y:2002:i:1:id:188 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jiří Jonáš Title: International monetary fund bailouts, moral hazard and private sector involvement Abstract: Since the mid-1990s, the IMF has provided large financial assistance to a number of member countries affected by serious financial and exchange rate crises. Because of the unprecedented size of these packages and possible negative side effects, the desirability of such assistance has become a hotly discussed issue. A consensus is now forming that official lending to country in crisis should not cease completely, but at the same time, official funds cannot be expected to fill in any existing financing gap. The article evaluates the risk of moral hazard connected with IMF lending. Although the substantial assistance inevitably influences the behavior and expectations of all players, there is little support for argument that lending created serious moral hazard. The role of the IMF conditionality as the traditional tool of reducing moral hazard is described in the circumstances of the new capital account developments. Keywords: IMF, financial assistance, moral hazard, financial and exchange rate crisis Volume: 2002 Issue: 1 Year: 2002 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/189 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2002:y:2002:i:1:id:189