Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vladimír Benáček
Title: Historical perspectives of growth, integration and policies for catching-up in transition countries
Abstract: This paper is aimed at addressing general characteristics of growth and development that concerns all transition countries before their accession to the EU when their convergence to the EU average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is expected. By looking back at the GDP statistics of major industrial countries for the last 90 years, a question is posed why some countries get on a path of a fast growth while some others go from one secular crisis to another. In assessing the policies supporting growth it is concluded that conditions on the company and industry level are more important than national macroeconomic policies.
Keywords: European Union, economic history, development, growth, enlargement
Classification-JEL: E31, N10, O11, P52
Volume: 2003
Issue: 1
Year: 2003
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/203
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2003:y:2003:i:1:id:203

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Havlik
Title: Restructuring of manufacturing industry in the central and east european countries
Abstract: This paper analyses various aspects of industrial restructuring across all ten Central and East European (CEE) candidate countries for EU membership during the last decade and provides also some comparisons with current EU Member States. The impressive structural adjustments that have taken place in CEE industries since the beginning of transition brought the structure of manufacturing industry in the majority of CEE candidate countries fairly close to the European pattern both in terms of production and employment. Technology-driven industries account for a growing share of exports in nearly all candidate countries, while labour-intensive industries have growing export shares only in less advanced candidates such as Bulgaria, Romania and in the Baltic states. The initial export specialization pattern of the more advanced CEE candidate countries has thus nearly completely reversed; a remarkable upgrading towards more sophisticated and less capital-intensive industries has occurred.
Keywords: foreign direct investment, EU candidate countries, industrial restructuring, trade specialization, integration
Classification-JEL: F14, F15, L6, P52
Volume: 2003
Issue: 1
Year: 2003
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/204
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2003:y:2003:i:1:id:204

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marcin Piatkowski
Title: The "new economy" and catching-up potential of transition economies
Abstract: The contribution of the 'new economy' to economic growth in developing countries has so far been minimal. The 'old economy' will for long be the fundamental force behind economic growth in transition economies. Nonetheless, in the longer run the 'new economy' offers great potential for faster economic growth in post-socialist economies. Realizing this potential is, however, not automatic. It can be left unharnessed if there is no suitable institutional infrastructure, which would allow for adoption, diffusion, and productive use of information and communication technologies (ICT). The paper introduces a New Economy Indicator (NEI) measuring the level of preparedness of transition economies for harnessing the potential of ICT to accelerate the long-term economic growth and catching-up with developed countries. In the NEI ranking Slovenia scored the highest, followed by the Czech Republic and Hungary, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, while Yugoslavia occupy the bottom of the table.
Keywords: economic growth, post-communist transition, new economy, information and communication technologies
Classification-JEL: O1, O2, O3, O5
Volume: 2003
Issue: 1
Year: 2003
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/205
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2003:y:2003:i:1:id:205

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jiří Schwarz
Title: Utilities: deregulated or re-regulated?
Abstract: This article addresses the restructuration of the utilities sector/industry, a process generally described as deregulation. At the core of deregulation processes, not only in the EU, but also in the US, lies the replacement of old-fashioned forms of state regulation based on ownership control by new forms of regulation based on the operation of an independent regulatory body. In Central and Eastern European countries undergoing economic transition, surviving communist-type behavior, along with half-implemented EU deregulation directives, have led to specifically re-regulated utility markets. The new forms of regulation applied in the process of deregulation have served only to preserve the market protection of former state monopolies. Regulators who manage deregulation processes in the EU style allocate benefits across organized producer and consumer groups, so that the regulators' total utility is maximized.
Keywords: captive customer, cross-subsidy, deregulation, interest group, natural monopoly, public service, re-regulation, regulator, regulatory failure, rent-seeking process
Classification-JEL: B29, L51, L59, L94, L98
Volume: 2003
Issue: 1
Year: 2003
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/206
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2003:y:2003:i:1:id:206

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Timotej Jagric
Title: Forecasting with leading economic indicators - a non-linear approach
Abstract: Leading economic indicators have a long tradition in forecasting future economic activity. Recent developments, however, suggest that there is scope for adding extensions to the methodology of forecasting major economic fluctuations. In this paper, the author tries to develop a new model, which would outperform the forecast accuracy of classical leading indicators model. The use of artificial neural networks is proposed here. For demonstration a case study for Slovene economy is included. The main finding is that, at the twelve months forecasting horizon, a stable and improved forecast accuracy could be achieved for in- and out-of-sample data.
Keywords: leading economic indicators, neural network, forecasting, aggregate economic activity
Classification-JEL: C45, E37
Volume: 2003
Issue: 1
Year: 2003
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/207
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2003:y:2003:i:1:id:207