Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kateřina Šmídková Author-Name: Ray Barrell Author-Name: Dawn Holland Title: Estimates of fundamental real exchange rates for the five eu pre-accession countries Abstract: Are there indications of real exchange rate misalignment in the case of the five pre-accession countries? Will stable real exchange rates, required by two of the Maastricht criteria, be in line with economic fundamentals in the pre-EMU period? In order to address these questions, we employ the concept of the fundamental real exchange rate (FRER). The FRER model approximates the integration gain with the impact of foreign direct investment on trade and allows for larger current account deficits if external debt is below a safety limit. According to the FRERs, there were signs of overvaluation for all the pre-accession economies, with the exception of Slovenia, at the end of 2001. The second main finding is that stability of real exchange rates will not automatically be in line with economic fundamentals in the forthcoming period. This suggests that some flexibility of exchange rates will be needed in the pre-EMU period. Keywords: EU accession, fundamental real exchange rates, EMU entry, modelling Classification-JEL: F41, F47 Volume: 2003 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/223 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2003:y:2003:i:4:id:223 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jacek Cukrowski Author-Name: Manfred M. Fischer Title: Strategic market research and industry structure in integrated economy Abstract: The paper is concerned with the impact of market research prior to integration with European Union (EU) on the structures of noncompetitive industries in integrated economy. The analysis focuses on monopolistic markets with stochastic demand. Firms are considered in dynamic multiperiod model, where intertemporal links are determined by expenditures on market research in a present period and benefits from this activity (i.e., smaller variance of the prediction error) in the future. We show that the optimal market research strategy is stationary and depends on market size. Consequently, after accession firms operating prior to integration in small markets are expected to have much less information about the total market than their competitors from the EU. This informational asymmetry may affect the structure of the industry in integrated economy. In the extreme case, the firm operating before integration in the small market can be ruled out from the integrated market. Keywords: demand uncertainty, European integration, industry structures, asymmetric information, demand forecasting, barriers for entry Classification-JEL: D80, F15, L10 Volume: 2003 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/224 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2003:y:2003:i:4:id:224 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Karel Janda Title: Credit guarantees in a credit market with adverse selection Abstract: This paper deals with government interventions in agricultural credit markets in the Czech Republic. I first describe the institutional setting and the empirics of agricultural credit in the Czech Republic. I explain the activities of the Czech Agricultural Guarantee Fund and compare it with similar institutions dealing with the support of agricultural credit in transition and developed market economies. Then I introduce an adverse selection model of credit provision with proportional credit guarantees. The model distinguishes two market regimes - a developed post-transition market economy and a transition economy. This distinction between transition and post-transition economies leads to different results generated by credit markets. Most notably, there is a failure of collateral as a screening instrument in credit markets of transition economies. With economic stabilization collateral resumes its role as a screening instrument. Keywords: government intervention, adverse selection, agricultural credit Classification-JEL: D82, G38, P34, Q14 Volume: 2003 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/225 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2003:y:2003:i:4:id:225 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stefano Mainardi Title: Testing convergence in life expectancies: count regression models on panel data Abstract: Long-term growth convergence has extensively been investigated based on economic variables. Indicators of social development and health status are generally focused on their contribution to growth or on assessing national health care systems. Yet, as a general yardstick of well-being, life expectancy should be regarded as a criterion to measure cross-country development patterns over long periods. Following a review of two approaches to estimating convergence, hypotheses and findings of recent studies on public health and growth are examined. Reformulating the analytical framework of both strands of research, discrete choice and parametric and semi-parametric Poisson regressions are applied to a three-decade panel of 132 countries. Determinants of achievements tend to impact differently across countries, with this distinction occurring particularly between negative and positive counts. Indications of convergence are tempered by results accounting for possible non-linear relationships, which further highlight the discrepancy between country groups with average life expectancy losses and gains. Keywords: convergence, long-term growth, life expectancy, public health, count regression Classification-JEL: C23, C24, C25, I12, O11 Volume: 2003 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/226 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2003:y:2003:i:4:id:226