Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jan Frait
Author-Name: Luboš Komárek
Title: Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: What Role for Central Banks in New EU Member States?
Abstract: The paper deals with the relationship between monetary policy and asset prices. Besides surveying the general discussion, it attempts to extend it to recent developments in the New Member States of the EU (NMS), namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia (the EU4). After a brief description of the current macroeconomic situation in the NMS, the appropriate reaction of monetary policy to asset price bubbles is analysed and the main pros and cons associated with this reaction are summarized. Afterwards, the risks of asset market bubbles in the EU4 countries are evaluated. Since the capital markets are still underdeveloped and the real estate price boom seems to be a natural reaction to the initial undervaluation, the risks are viewed as rather small. The conclusion is thus that it is crucial for central banks in mature economies as well as in the NMS to conduct their monetary policies as well as their supervisory and regulatory roles in a way that does not promote the build-up of asset market bubbles. In exceptional times, central banks of small open economies must be ready to use monetary policy steps as a kind of insurance against the adverse effects of potential asset market bubbles.
Keywords: monetary policy, asset markets, central banking, New EU Member States
Classification-JEL: E52, E58, G12
Pages: 3-23
Volume: 2007
Issue: 1
Year: 2007
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/download.php?jnl=pep&pdf=294.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/294
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2007:y:2007:i:1:id:294:p:3-23
X-File-Ref: http://www.vse.cz/RePEc/prg/jnlpep/references/294

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Roman Horváth
Author-Name: Luboš Komárek
Title: Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Eu New Members: Methodology, Estimation and Applicability to ERM II
Abstract: In this paper we discuss the estimation and methodology of the real equilibrium exchange rate partial equilibrium models and analyse to what extent the resulting estimates are applicable for setting the central parity prior to ERM II entry in the New EU Member States. Given the uncertainty surrounding the estimates, we argue that they are informative in the sign rather than the size of the misalignment of the exchange rate, but may still serve as useful consistency checks for the decision on the setting of the central parity. We argue that policy makers should consider the estimates in their decision-making only if the real exchange rate is substantially misaligned.
Keywords: New EU Member States, Equilibrium Exchange Rate, ERM II
Classification-JEL: C52, C53, E58, E61, F31
Pages: 24-37
Volume: 2007
Issue: 1
Year: 2007
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/295
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2007:y:2007:i:1:id:295:p:24-37

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Lukáš Vácha
Author-Name: Miloslav Vošvrda
Title: Wavelet Decomposition of the Financial Market
Abstract: A heterogeneous agents model with the worst out algorithm was considered for obtaining more realistic market conditions. The WOA replaces periodically the trading strategies that have the lowest performance level of all strategies presented on the market by the new ones. New strategies that enter on the market have the same stochastic structure as an initial set of strategies. This paper shows, by wavelets applications, strata influences of the trading strategies with the WOA.
Keywords: heterogeneous agents model with stochastic memory, worst out algorithm, wavelet, agents? trading strategies
Classification-JEL: C61, D81, G12, G14
Pages: 38-54
Volume: 2007
Issue: 1
Year: 2007
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/download.php?jnl=pep&pdf=296.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/296
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2007:y:2007:i:1:id:296:p:38-54

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marek Loužek
Title: Pension Reform in the Czech Republic - A Contribution into the Debate
Abstract: The paper is concerned with pension reform in the Czech Republic and abroad. It argues against two opinions: on the one hand, it is not necessary to do anything, and on the other hand, that a mandatory funded system should be implemented. Both approaches are false because of creating overwhelming explicit debts. The author recommends an evolutionary approach based on decreasing PAYG in combination with voluntary savings.
Keywords: transition, pension reform, social security insurance, endogenous fertility, Ricardo-Barro hypothesis
Classification-JEL: D02, D91, H62, J26
Pages: 55-69
Volume: 2007
Issue: 1
Year: 2007
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/download.php?jnl=pep&pdf=297.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/297
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2007:y:2007:i:1:id:297:p:55-69
X-File-Ref: http://www.vse.cz/RePEc/prg/jnlpep/references/297

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Natálie Reichlová
Title: Can Motivation Theory Explain Migration Decisions?
Abstract: According to Abraham Maslow's motivational theory, human action is motivated by five levels of human needs. The model introduced in this paper exploits Maslow's theory to explain migration flows between regions. In the model, movement from one region to another influences migrant utility in three ways: through change in wage owing to different regional wage levels, through changes in utility connected with a migrant's safety needs, and through disarrangement of a migrant's social network. When safety and social needs are added to the model, equilibria arise in which wage differentials between regions persist.
Keywords: migration, agent-based modelling, decision-making, motivation, networks
Classification-JEL: F22, I31, J61, O15
Pages: 70-85
Volume: 2007
Issue: 1
Year: 2007
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/298
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2007:y:2007:i:1:id:298:p:70-85