Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Milan Viturka
Author-Name: Vilém Pařil
Author-Name: Petr Tonev
Author-Name: Petr Šašinka
Author-Name: Josef Kunc
Title: The Metropolisation Processes - A Case of Central Europe and the Czech Republic
Abstract: The article deals with the strategically important problems of metropolisation. In this context, it presents a theoretically based method of assessment of metropolises, the explanatory power of which was verified on the example of the Central Europe. This method is based on three components: population size (initial assumption), economic profile (ties to economic performance) and general attractiveness (the perception of development potential). The results of the evaluation of the 27 identified metropolises were generalized using a typology of their inclusion within the framework of the listed components: most metropolises were classified as type B - an established metropolis, followed by type C - an elementary metropolis, and type A - a dominant metropolis. A practically targeted conceptualization is then demonstrated on the example of the Czech Republic. The main attention was focused on the intensity of the economic links of Prague (and two further Czech centres) with other Central European metropolises.
Keywords: integration, metropolitan area, population size, economic profile, attractiveness
Classification-JEL: O18, R11, R12, R58
Pages: 505-522
Volume: 2017
Issue: 5
Year: 2017
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/download.php?jnl=pep&pdf=624.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/624
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2017:y:2017:i:5:id:624:p:505-522
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michal Gerthofer
Author-Name: Michal Pešta
Title: Stochastic Claims Reserving in Insurance Using Random Effects
Abstract: Estimation of claims reserves, which should be held by the insurer so as to be able to meet expected future claims arising from policies currently in force and policies written in the past, presents an important task for insurance companies to predict their liabilities. A common approach to the reserving problem is based on generalized linear models (GLM). In this article, the application of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) - an extension of the GLM - for estimation of the loss reserves is shown. Since the GLMM allows incorporating a random effect instead of several fixed effects corresponding to the accident years as in case of the GLM, volatility of the prediction is reduced. This allows more flexible risk valuation, which is a crucial element of risk management and capital allocation practices of non-life insurers. A real data example together with diagnostics for the model selection are provided as an illustration of the potential benefits of the presented approach.
Keywords: panel data, claims reserving, non-life insurance, dependency modelling, random effects, mixed models, GLM, GLMM
Classification-JEL: C13, C18, C23, C33, C51, G22
Pages: 542-560
Volume: 2017
Issue: 5
Year: 2017
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/download.php?jnl=pep&pdf=625.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/625
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2017:y:2017:i:5:id:625:p:542-560
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alina Morosanu
Author-Name: Elisabeta Jaba
Author-Name: Daniela Serban
Title: The Proposal of a Tool for Candidate’s Selection for Employment. The Case of Survey Interviewers
Abstract: This study purpose is a questionnaire development used to quantify survey interviewer characteristics. Five dimensions of personality were used: conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, emotional stability and openness. Those dimensions where measured using a Likert scale with 6 points. In total, 107 survey interviewers from a branch of private companies specialized in public opinion research answered the questionnaire’s questions. Reliability of the questionnaire was assessed by internal consistency. A preliminary list of 25 items was prepared as a starting point. After evaluation of validity, five items were rejected. The new measurement instrument with 20 items was finally developed. The content validity index for the final questionnaire was found acceptable. Results showed that final questionnaire was internally consistent.
Keywords: survey interviewer, characteristics of personality, questionnaire, reliability, validity
Classification-JEL: C83, J21, J24
Pages: 561-577
Volume: 2017
Issue: 5
Year: 2017
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/download.php?jnl=pep&pdf=629.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/629
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2017:y:2017:i:5:id:629:p:561-577
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Maciej Ryczkowski
Title: Forward Guidance, Pros, Cons and Credibility
Abstract: The goal of the article is to verify the credibility of time contingent Forward Guidance (FG) as well as its possible time-inconsistency based on the rarely addressed example of the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The NBP’s FG constitutes a unique case study as this measure in its ‘Odyssean’ form was not introduced to overcome the limits of further policy rates cuts. It allowed us to verify the FG’s credibility and time-inconsistency by applying OLS and GMM estimated contemporaneous and forward looking Taylor type rules with interest smoothing. Our empirical evidence reveals that the annual period of FG in Poland was perceived as a credible promise by consumers. We found that time-consistency could have been an additional factor enhancing the considerable credibility of FG. The satisfying results of the NBP’s FG appear to be especially interesting, in particular, when contrasted with the often unfavourable experience with time-contingent FG of prominent central banks. We suppose that to achieve this, the central bank should act with caution and the NBP indeed did so by specifying carefully the short horizon of the commitment to be able to abandon FG when the circumstances change. We also discuss FG by opposing its advantages and the drawbacks indicated in the subject literature.
Keywords: forward guidance, National Bank of Poland, unconventional monetary policy, zero lower bound on interest rates
Classification-JEL: E44, E52, E58
Pages: 523-541
Volume: 2017
Issue: 5
Year: 2017
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/download.php?jnl=pep&pdf=631.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/631
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Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2017:y:2017:i:5:id:631:p:523-541
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Iryna Lukianenko
Author-Name: Marianna Oliskevych
Title: Evidence of Asymmetries and Nonlinearity of Unemployment and Labour Force Participation Rate in Ukraine
Abstract: With respect to instability and structural changes for maintaining effective functioning of economy an important issue is to study the dynamics of processes in the labour market, including labour supply and employment. Considering negative demographic trends and an acute problem of population aging in Ukraine the article presents an empirical research of the dynamics of labour force participation and unemployment rate, as well as the correlation relationship between them in various periods of time. On the basis of threshold-disturbance moving average and threshold-disturbance autoregressive models there are elicited significant asymmetric reactions of labour force participation rate, unemployment rate and productivity to positive and negative macroeconomic shocks. For modelling the asymmetric behaviour of economic activity of population there is developed a nonlinear logistic smooth transition autoregressive model. In the result of econometric analysis there is received large estimated value of slope parameter which characterizes the smoothness of transition. This indicates that the economic activity of the population in Ukraine quickly reacts to the previous changes that took place in the labour market. In times of crisis Ukrainian households increase labour supply and show increased activity in job search in order to prevent the decline of their income.
Keywords: unemployment, labour market, asymmetry, labour force participation rate, LSTAR model, Ukraine
Classification-JEL: C30, E24
Pages: 578-601
Volume: 2017
Issue: 5
Year: 2017
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/download.php?jnl=pep&pdf=633.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/633
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Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2017:y:2017:i:5:id:633:p:578-601
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Bohumil Stádník
Author-Name: Václav Žďárek
Title: Volatility ‘Strangeness’ of Bonds - How to Define and What Does it Bring?
Abstract: The aim of this article is to complement the existing economic and financial strand of the literature by defining three alternative regimes of the clean price volatility of a bond with respect to the level of interest rates in the economy. The suggested method takes into account responses to the changing nature of financial markets and allows for the possibility of observing negative interest rates. Our approach enables to find particular values of switching points between alternative regimes. After showing main theoretical steps, an investigation of the dependence of such points on key parameters of bonds is provided. An empirical illustration follows, accompanied by a discussion of theoretical and practical effects of this bond property. This approach offers both theorists and interested practitioners a way of overcoming difficulties associated with computations because of the complicated theoretical background. The results can be generalised, so that they apply both to the life of a bond and to the behaviour of a portfolio of bonds at a point of time.
Keywords: bond /portfolio of bonds, volatility regimes, price/yield sensitivity, negative interest rates
Classification-JEL: G1, G10, G12, G14
Pages: 602-629
Volume: 2017
Issue: 5
Year: 2017
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/download.php?jnl=pep&pdf=636.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/636
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2017:y:2017:i:5:id:636:p:602-629
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