Results for 1998 support the statement that recovery of economic growth will be the macroeconomic priority for 1999 rather than external imbalance. The recovery of domestic demand could, however, - under certain circumstances - represent an import promoting impetus, which could threaten the painfully acquired and still fragile external balance. This would be very dangerous since twin deficits (fiscal deficit together with the one on the balance of payments) would not attract massive inflow of foreign investments. Keywords: monetary policy Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/35 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vladimír Tomšík Title: Vliv měnové a kurzové politiky na reálnou ekonomiku v Maďarsku, Polsku a České republice Title: Influence of the monetary and the exchange rate policies on the real economy in Hungary, Poland and the Czech republic Abstract: In this article is compared the monetary and the exchange rate policies and their influence on the real economic situation in Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. In these transition countries a growth rate of a domestic demand was over taking a growth rate of an aggregate supply and this situation led into a current account deficit and into a pressure to the higher inflation.
Author discusses the substitution and the income effects of the fiscal and the monetary (especially of the exchange rate) policies on making an external balance. The comparison of the basic macroeconomic indicators (growth rate of gross domestic product, inflation and current account deficit) showed that the crawling peg exchange rate regime facilitated to improve the external balance in Poland and Hungary.
In this article is also discussed an influence of the exchange rate regime and the price deregulation process on an inflation expectation in each compared country.
In the final part of this article author focused on a problem of building an institutional framework and its influence on a development of the economic situation in the Czech Republic. Keywords: current account, monetary policy, exchange rate, macroeconomic development, privatization, inflation targeting Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/36 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mojmír Hampl Title: Povinné minimální rezervy v instrumentariu SBČS a ČNB Title: Reserve requirements in the SBCS and CNB instrumentaria Abstract: Main purpose of this paper is to analyse reserve requirements as one of the most controversial monetary policy tool at all. The first part of the paper focuses on reserve requirements in a broader context of the monetary policy of the SBCS, the CNB respectively, during the period 1989 - 1998. The first part of the article deals with issues like the side effects of reserve requirements, rationales justifying their existence in the monetary policy instrument set or the trade-off between the monetary stability and banking industry stability goals of the central bank. This critical analyse of the role of reserve requirements in monetary policy schemes during recent years creates a useful framework for the second part. In this part potential reforms of reserve requirements are discussed and possible effects of reserve requirements on the monetary system of the Czech Republic are specified in more detail.
It is clear reserve requirement are redundant instrument within the new inflation targeting regime adopted by the CNB almost a year ago. But more important question coming to a mind is how to abolish reserve requirements without causing destructive side effects on the whole monetary and banking system. By discussing these issues the paper leads to a crucial conclusion: Czech monetary policy-makers should prefer continuous and gradual way of lowering the rate of reserve requirements to the very quick and unanticipated one even though the existence of reserve is not sustainable any more. Keywords: reserve requirements, monetary policy instruments set, rationales and reforms of reserve requirements Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/37 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Helena Horská Title: Vývoj peněžního multiplikátoru v podmínkách pevného měnového kurzu a rozšířeného fluktuačního pásma Title: The behaviour of the money multiplier under fixed exchange rates and extended fluctuation limit Abstract: The money multiplier is the ratio of the stock of money (M2 in Czech Republic) to the stock of high - powered money (M0 in Czech Republic). Actual data for the money multiplier for M2 are shown that the multiplier is neither constant nor exactly predictable. I suppose the main sources of this instability are the changes of the required - reserve ratio. Every one of these changes always implied the big and unrepeated movement of money multiplier. The next important volatile variable in the multiplier is the ratio of the demand deposits to the term deposits that reflected the changes in liquidity preference of private and household sector. The currency wasn't the least unstable item in the multiplier. Its behavior was influenced by the seasonal fluctuations. Keywords: money multiplier, monetary base, monetary aggregate M2, currency, demand and term deposits, deposits in foreign currency, floating exchange rates, required - reserve ratio Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/38 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Josef Jílek Author-Name: Jiřina Jílková Title: Dopad květnových turbulencí roku 1997 na hospodaření bank v ČR Title: Impact of may turbulences in 1997 on profit and loss of banks in the Czech republic Abstract: Currency turbulences in May 1997 had positive impact on profit of the Czech banking sector. The profit of the banking sector increased for additional CZK 1190 million in May 1997 and for additional CZK 1135 million in June (without the bank with special treatment). On the other hand impact on corporates and households was negative in the same magnitude. During May (and June) 33 banks (from 51 banks) showed additional profit. Foreign banks and branches of foreign banks reported the biggest additional profit of CZK 1488 million even if their share on the assets of the banking sector was 22.31 % (at the end of 1997). The group of large banks realised additional profit of CZK 568 million but its share on the market was 65.64 %. Building societies reported additional profit of CZK 246 million and special banks CZK 100 million. Small banks with Czech participation realized additional loss of CZK 77 million and the banks with special treatment additional loss of CZK 411 million. Keywords: banking sector, profitability, currency turbulences Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/39 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stanislava Hronová Author-Name: Richard Hindls Author-Name: Josef Kozák Title: Využití systému krátkodobých statistických zjišťování k odhadům národohospodářských agregátů Title: The use of the system of short-term statistical surveys for estimations of national economy aggregates Abstract: This article deals with some possibilities of the use of time-series analysis for quarterly statistical estimations of macroeconomic aggregates. It is a case of estimations of aggregates of gross domestic product creation and use. Beyond all doubt, their meaning from the point of view of conception and strategy is great. The contemporary standard of these data reporting (either separately or as major measures within national accounts system) in the Czech Republic and, mostly, in further economics under transition starts above all from yearly values of measures. The core of method of their assembling is given by exhaustive surveys. The aim of quarterly statistical estimates of GDP (as well as additional indicators both in vertical and horizontal direction within national accounts system is to provide reliable estimations of quarterly values of corresponding aggregates as soon as possible. This paper deals with statistical macroeconomic model based on indirect methods using short-term surveys. The basic task of indirect methods of quarterly estimations of aggregates of national accounts is, on the one hand, to provide some synthetic information related to just past quarter as soon as possible and, on the other hand, to enable the prediction of corresponding aggregates for 1 - 2 quarters keeping reasonable measure of accuracy and reliability of these predictions. Keywords: gross domestic product, indirect estimation methods, quarterly national accounts, reference indicators, allocation Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/40 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martin Pěchouček Title: Mezní užitek v originálním pojetí Carla Mengera Title: Marginal utility theory in original conception of Carl Menger Abstract: The article claims that marginal utility theory (as the framework of neoclassical microeconomics) cannot be reduced into mere mathematical formula. Indeed, the theory is a chain of some general ideas reaching intrinsic roots of economics. Therefore the article does not focus on describing the theory itselfs and its application in consumer behavior theory, but endeavour for tracing out the backround, which has originated the concept of marginal utility. For the sake of clarity and simplicity of interpretation it was choosen Menger's Principles of Economics rather than Walras' or Jevons' works on this field in order to come true the stated target. Keywords: utility, thing, good, casuality, value, need, requirement, satisfaction, marginal utility Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/41 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Pavel Sirůček Title: Zkoumání dlouhých vln v meziválečném období Title: Study of long waves in the interwar period Abstract: Problems of economic cycle moves (including long run cycles) were studied thoroughly in the period between World Wars. Besides the U.S.S.R. (where this topic was analyzed beside N.D. Kondratieff also by L.D. Trotsky) the studies covering the long-run economic "booms" were writen also by scientists in Germany (for instance E. Wagemann), Belgium (L.H. Dupriez and others), France (F. Simiand and others), Sweden (J.G.K. Wicksell, G.K. Casell) and by many Americans (W.C. Mitchell, A. Hansen or J.M. Clark). Despite all these contributions (mostly trying to explain of mechanism of long-run waves on the base of exogenous factors) the basic progress in the modern theory of long waves is linked with N.D. Kondratieff and later with concept of accumulation of basic innovations developed by J.A. Schumpeter. Keywords: long waves, study of economic cycles in interwar period, exogenous explanation of mechanism of long waves Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/42 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jaroslav Krameš Title: Místo Albína Bráfa ve vývoji českého ekonomického myšlení Title: The place of Albín Bráf in the development of the czech economic thought Abstract: The personality and economic theory of Albín Bráf (1851-1912), professor of political economy at the Prague university, were milestones in the development of Czech economic thought.He started lecturing at the university in the Czech language (1877), and he defined the subject-matter of political economy, methods and relations between the disciplines. He adopted a new approach to the relationship between national-economy theory and economic policy. He devised a concept of the "Czech national-economy revival" on the basis of this approach as a vision addressing the ripe social and economic problems of the Czech society. Albín Bráf won over the whole generation of Czech economists by his concept. The dissemination of his ideas was facilitated by his pedagogic mastery on the ground of Charles University and Institute of Technology in Prague. His legacy was promoted, among others, by Cyril Horáček (1862-1943) and Josef Gruber (1865-1925), Albín Bráf's successors at the Prague university. Keywords: Albín Bráf, national-economy theory, economic policy, Czech national-economy revival, Czech economic terminology Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/43 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vladimír Choluj Title: Francois quesnay a jeho tableau économique Title: François quesnay and his economic chart Abstract: A system-making transcript, as well as, an interpretation of the F. Quesnay´s "large" economic model known under the term of the Economic chart, involved in the chapture, points out actuality of his methodological message. The first benefit focuses on its initial concentrating on, first of all, recognizing the principal features of the whole unit, parts, stages and movements in a society (a natural order), which he lived in. Followingly, it continues in application of the non-verbal expressing means and quantification along with creating the economic model - economic side of the movement in the society and with the aim to use it for creating new knowledge of the movement. The Quesnay's message is actually connected with the task of transformation of up-to-know mostly empirical level of the economic science to the theoretical one. The Economic chart points out the need to solve its partial tasks within the tasks of economic modelling, normalization, logical construction and of originality - knowledge of non-substitution and non-isolation of the previous scientific knowledge of the economy from recognizing a concrete society fact. Keywords: economic model, theory-making of economic knowledge, economic transformation, transformation system, external transformations, internal transformations, integrated transformation, problem situation in economy, modelling tasks in economy Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/44 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Petr Fiala Title: Kvantitativní metody v ekonomice Title: Quantitative methods in economics Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/46 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martin Čihák Title: Česká společnost ekonomická: měření vlivu minimální mzdy na trhu práce Title: Czech economic association: measurement of the influence of minimum wage on labour market Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/47 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jiří Dědina Title: Řízení a organizace výrobního procesu Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/48 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ilja Novák Title: Zajímavá publikace o statistice Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/49 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jaromír Veber Title: Publikace spojující obecnou ekonomii a management Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/50 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:50 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jitka Srpová Title: Jak se při finančním řízení vyvarovat zbytečných chyb Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/51 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:51 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Karel Müller Title: Vliv sociologie na vývoj ekonomického myšlení Volume: 1999 Issue: 3 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/52 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:3:id:52