It is highly probable that the volatility of private consumption will be higher than the volatility of GDP also in the next future. Keywords: inflation, transformation of the Czech economy, consumption and GDP development 1990-1998, propensity to save, economic behaviour Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/67 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:67 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Viktor Kotlán Title: Jsou finanční indikátory schopny předpovídat vývoj ekonomické aktivity? Title: Are financial indicators capable of predicting economic activity? Abstract: The paper argues that the prices of financial instruments contain usefulinformation about the development of different macroeconomic variables. Itsfocus lies in examining the ability of stock prices and of spread betweenlong and shor interest rates to predict real economic activity. We firstoutline the theory behind this argument and present the findings ofavailable empirical literature on the topic. The main part of the paper isdevoted to empirical analysis of the relationship between the mentionedindicators and real economic activity in the Czech Republic using VARapproach. The results stemming from Granger causality tests and variancedecomposition suggest that the only indicator of the three we examined (twospreads, stock index) capable of predicting real economic activity is thespread between the yield on 5-year bond and one-month PRIBOR. Keywords: financial indicators, real economic acitvity, term structure of interest rates, stock prices, forecasting, vector autoregression Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/68 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:68 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Josef Jílek Author-Name: Jiřina Jílková Title: Povinné minimální rezervy z vkladů v cizí měně Title: Reserve requirements on foreign currency deposits Abstract: The paper reviews reserve requirements on foreign currency deposits anddiscusses whether they should be in local currency or in foreign currency.These issues have become important concerns of the Czech National Bank asforeign currency deposits have become a significant proportion of totaldeposits. Foreign currency reserve requirements may provide a safer andsimpler alternative do discourage currency conversion when foreign currencydeposits are a substantial fraction of deposits and reserve ratios aresignificant. The introduction of foreign currency reserve accounts at thecentral bank raises the issue of whether banks should be allowed to usethese accounts for payments purposes. In cases wherea substantial amount ofinterbank transactions is in foreign currency, banks are likely to requestthat the settlement of foreign currency transactions be allowed in the booksof the central bank.
There trend in reserve ratios in the Czech Republic similar to general trendin the world to lower reserve requirements. The reserve ration in the Czechbanking sector is 5% for banks and 4% for building societies and for theCzech-Moravian Guarantee and Development Bank. The reserve ratio of reserverequirements on depoits in the CZK does not differ from reserve ratio ofreserve requirements on deposits in foreign currencies. Reserve requirementson deposits in foreign currencies are to be held only in CZK. Keywords: reserve requirements, foreign exchange, high inflation, currency substitution Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/69 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:69 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jan Kodera Author-Name: Václava Pánková Title: Odhad neoklasického modelu poptávky po penězích v české ekonomice Title: Neo-classical money demand model estimation in the czech economy Abstract: A simple Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model transformed by the help ofShephard's lemma from a classical optimization problem is formulated and itsbasic characteristicts are presented. Using Monthly data - money supply M2,wealth, market interest rate, PRIBOR (Prague Interbank Offer Rate), and realindustrial production - a money demand equation based on the AIDS system isestimated for the Czech transition economy. The results obtained support thehypothesis that the money demand processes in the transition economy of theCzech Republic functionate according to rather sophisticated axioms ofneo-classical theory of consumer choice. Keywords: Almost ideal demand system (AIDS), Shephard's lemma, money demand, transition economy data, seasonal adjustment, econometric estimations, partial adjustment, rational choice principle Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/70 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:70 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ilona Bažantová Title: Zapomenutý ekonom Karel Havlíček Borovský Title: The forgotten economist Karel Havlíček Borovský Abstract: Karel Havlíček Borovský (1821 - 1856) has up until now been known as a political journalist andsatirist, his economical views remained unnoticed, althought, given the thensituation in Bohemia, they were of high theoretical and terminologicallevel. Havlíček's work is scattered over many articles and notes. He argued forpolitical and economical liberalism and inviolability of private ownership.He saw the basis of the wealth of each and every nation in free productionand trade. He explained the substance and understanding of both many fullysupported by precious metal and paper money and the causes of inflation. Hedefined taxes and their structure of direct and indirect ones and appliedthe enlightenment theory of social contract to state fiscal policy.Political exile and an early death prevented Havlíček from leaving us acomprehensive systematical economic work. Keywords: inflation, terminology, liberalism, criticism of protection tariff, money, taxes Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/71 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:71 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Baláž Author-Name: Gu Suh Yong Title: Reforma priemyselnej a obchodnej politiky - cesta riešenia finančnej krízy juhokórejskej ekonomiky Title: Reforming of the industrial and trade policy - the right way for the financial recovery of the South Korea economy Abstract: For the past three decades, South Korea has remained one of the fastestgrowing economy in the world. Even with the financial crisis since end of1997 to mid-1998, this country continued succesful by developmnet of strongeconomic fundamentals. The causes of financial crisis were generallyconcentrated in two main areas: influence of structural factors inherent inKorean capitalism and unsustunaible deterioration of macroeconomic results.As is well known, ratio of short term debt was extremely high. The totalforeign debt amounted to about USD 150 bill. as of end of 1997. Thefinancial panic caused liquidity crunch that stemmed from the sudden shiftin the market expectations and confidence. After the Korean government'sdecision to accept the Bailout program of IMF and rescue financialpackage, the economy has been undergoing significant changes in mostimportant spheres. There were concentradet to the area of the activities offinancial and banking institutions, restructuralization of industrialpolicy, adaptation processes of various activities of leading businessconglomerats - chaebols (merging). OOn the other hand many experts calledattention to the need for changes to the global financial system. The maininternal point of the sucess of the Reform pprogram depends on the abilityto change the industrial and export structure of doemstic economy and createthe favourable developing space for foreign investors. The danger offinancial crisis is in its expansion across Asia during past year andfinally in beginning the reverbate world-wide. Keywords: financial crisis, industrial policy of cheabols, progress in structural reform, the recovery of positive export position, global aspects of financial crisis Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/72 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:72 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Pavel Sirůček Title: Koncepce dlouhých vln J. A. Schumpetera Title: J. A. Schumpeter's concept of long waves Abstract: J. A. Schumpeter is one of the most important and most originalrepresentatives of the 20th century socio-economic theory, who made anessential contribution to the concept of long waves. He focused histheoretical system (represented by major works from 1912, 1939 and 1942) onthe dynamic theory of capitalist economy development: innovations are adynamic element underlying all economic categories. Cyclical developmnet isbased on an uneven distribution of innovations - clustering of basicinnovations is the principle of endogenous explanation of the mechanism oflong-term Kondratiev cycles. J. A. Schumpeter included a historicaldimension in the analysis of multicyclic development; his work BusinessCycles became not only a target for criticism (e. g. reviews by S.Kuznets) but also a base for many moder innovative approaches to the longwaves concept (e. g. G. Mensch). As the corner-stones were laid by N. D.Kondratieff and his successor J. A. Schumpeter, the cycles of this conceptcan be designated as long waves of Kondratieff-Schumpeter type. Keywords: long wave, J. A. Schumpeter, history of Kondratieff long waves research, innovations, Schumpeterian waves of innovations Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/73 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:73 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jiří Řezník Title: Ekonomická analýza konkurence států Title: The economic analysis of the competition of states Abstract: The paper discusses the effects of interaction of states under the conditionwhen property rights of individuals and states a re respected mutually. Inthese situations states compete for better supply of security and justicefor inhabitants on their own territory. These goods are produced by means ofadministrative and repressive apparatus whose activity is financed throughtaxes. This competition leads to supporting of state integrity. The stateinterest is given as a matter-of-fact (already geopolitically). Thisinterest manifests as an egoism of the state itself. Any government of anystate must lay explicit goals to itself and it is usually better informed(with respect to the production of security and justice) than any otherinstitution and individuals because it takes care about immediateacquisition and exploitation of these goods. Keywords: economic analysis, competition, states, production function, international market, efficiency, government Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/74 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:74 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jaroslav Macháček Title: Místní rozvoj Title: Local development Abstract: Particularly in terms of tregional analysis, the concept of development ranks among the most frequent and essential components of economicreasoning. Yet, the way how it has been generally understood seems to berather vague, the range and variety of its possible content too wide and itspattern unstable.
The above contribution means an attemt to specify the position of thisconcept in spatial economics, mostly through explanation and comparison oofthree prevailing approaches to address the area of issues associated withthe term development: the process in question can be looked at as localeconomic development, multidimensional or sustainable developments.
Most attention has been paid to the idea of sustainable developmnet, as thebelief has been expressed that the assimilation of its principles and aimsby economc theory and practice poses major challenge that can not be avoidedeven in the very near future. A selection of indicators for the developmentto be evaluated in terms of sustainability has been presented and discussed. Keywords: development, locality, resources, economic objectives, environmental concerns, location, sustainability Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/75 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:75 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marie Bohatá Author-Name: Martina Pechová Title: řízení a správa společností Title: Corporate governance Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/76 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:76 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martin Čihák Title: česká společnost ekonomická: rakouská škola a keynesovská tradice Title: Czech economic association: austrian school and keynesian tradition Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/77 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:77 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Petr Soukup Title: První sociální zpráv a o vývoji naší polistopadové společnosti Title: First social report on our society development after november 1989 Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/78 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:78 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Petr Marek Title: Průvodce rizikovým a rozvojovým kapitálem Title: Guide to venture and development capital Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/79 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:79 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jiří Dědina Title: Kvantitativní metody zdokonalování manažerského rozhodování Title: Quantitative methods for improving decision making of managers Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/80 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:80 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Oldřich Vávra Title: Komplexní pojetí nákupního marketingu Title: Complex concept of purchasing marketing Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/81 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:81 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Milan Sojka Title: Vývoj ekonomického myšlení ve střední a východní evropě za reálného socialismu a po jeho pádu Title: Economic thought development in central and eastern europe during real socialism and after its fall Volume: 1999 Issue: 5 Year: 1999 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/82 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:1999:y:1999:i:5:id:82