Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Oldřich Dědek Title: Příčiny a průběh měnových turbulencí v České republice v roce 1997 Title: Currency turbulence in 1997 in the Czech Republic Abstract: The Czech economy experienced a standard shake-up triggered by a gradual build-up of external imbalance that ended up with a speculative attack. As a result of the many institutional bottlenecks, the supply side of the economy was unable to keep pace with the rapid expansion in domestic demand. The mounting external imbalance was also linked with considerable internal imbalances. The contagion came in May 1997 from South-East Asia. Them followed a sharp weakening of the CZK. The CNB opted for a strategy of liquidity squeeze. Escalation of the crisis led to the adaption of managed floating of the CZK finally. The first signals of a calming of the situation emerged at the start of June. It became possible to launch a strategy to bring interest rates down. This process lasted until around the end of August. The price paid for eliminating the external imbalance was economic recession. Keywords: stabilization policy, external imbalance, speculative attack, capital controls, political cycle Volume: 2000 Issue: 6 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/182 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2000:y:2000:i:6:id:182 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stanislava Janáčková Title: Chiméra autonomní měnové politiky v malé otevřené ekonomice Title: The chimera of autonomous monetary policy in a small open economy Abstract: In small open economies, external factors exert a strong influence on the autonomy and efficiency of domestic monetary policies. For the Czech National Bank, no exchange rate regime can guarantee a lasting degree of policy autonomy. Within the present CNB's strategy of direct inflation targeting, changes of exchange rate and of world prices proved especially hard to tackle. In 1998 and 1999, a substantially faster disinflation took place than was presupposed by CNB's own inflation targets. This helped to throw the economy into a recession. A credit crunch subsequently set out of function the most important transmission channel of monetary policy. Inflation targets were repeatedly undershot, and only a strong capital inflow initiated the money supply growth for economic recovery. A lower level of ambition to steer the economy via autonomous monetary policy is probably desirable. The "fast solutions" - a currency board, or an immediate takeover of the EUR - are neither feasible, nor would they be clearly beneficial at the present stage. Keywords: monetary policy, inflation, exchange rates, international monetary arrangement and institutions Volume: 2000 Issue: 6 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/183 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2000:y:2000:i:6:id:183 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marie Vavrejnová Title: Harmonizace obchodní politiky České republiky s obchodní politikou zemí Evropské unie Title: Harmonization of the Czech Republic trade policy with the European union trade policy Abstract: This article analyses changes in the structure of foreign trade and tariff changes during the process of transformation and pre-EU accession period. Special attention is given to a comparison of Czech and German foreign trade structure. Germany has become the main trading partner of the Czech Republic. To demonstrate the process of trade liberalization in the pre-EU accession period, development trends of nominal tariffs were calculated. Also, experimental calculations of the effective rate of protection were made, and the future impact of tariff changes on comparative advantage after joining the EU was examined. This was done using German tariffs, as representatives of the harmonized EU tariffs. By calculating the revealed comparative advantage indices (Balassa), the ranking of 62 sectors of German and Czech foreign trade was compared and analyzed. As a result, some signals for the future trade policy are derived. Keywords: trade liberalization, international cooperation, tariff structure changes, revealed comparative advantage Volume: 2000 Issue: 6 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/184 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2000:y:2000:i:6:id:184 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Petr Chvojka Author-Name: Karel Zeman Title: Tendence dosavadního vývoje zemí střední a východní Evropy Title: Tendencies of the central and east European countries development Abstract: The paper reviews the different economic potential of the ten analysed CEE countries at the beginning of the transformation process (1989 - 1990). The main features of each transformation approach are identified (privatization, liberalization, transition between economic systems). A comparative analysis of the basic economic indicators development during the transformation period is the core of the paper.
Special attention is focused on the differences in subsequent economic growth, in its basic factors, in the convergence process, restructuring trends, the links with the external economic environment and in the competitive ability of CEE countries. The closing part of the paper is devoted to comparative analysis of the CEE countries' potential for future economic growth (during the five to fifteen years) and to the proper policy approach necessary to stimulate the needed acceleration of the transformation process towards a market economy in these countries. Keywords: economic growth, economic potential, performance parameters, system conditions, restructuring trends, convergence process of the CEE economies Volume: 2000 Issue: 6 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/185 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2000:y:2000:i:6:id:185 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Evžen Kočenda Title: Test nelineárních závislostí Title: A test of nonlinear dependencies Abstract: This paper proposes a test of iid distribution of data that allows to uncover nonlinear patterns in a time series. The proposed alternative (henceforth the K2K test) extends and generalizes the widely known BDS test. By its construction, it removes subjectivity in arbitrary choice of a proximity parameter. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to tabulate critical values of the alternative statistic. Previously published empirical studies are replicated as well as power tests executed in order to evaluate performance of the K2K test relative to the BDS test. The results are favorable for the K2K test. Keywords: exchange rates, chaos, nonlinear dynamics, correlation integral, Monte Carlo simulation Volume: 2000 Issue: 6 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/186 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2000:y:2000:i:6:id:186 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martin Macháček Title: Prolegomena neoclassica čili poněkud paradoxní pokus o popularizaci převládajícího metodologického přístupu Title: Prolegomena neoclassica, or a rather paradoxical attempt at a popularization of the neoclassical methodological approach Abstract: This paper is focused on the neoclassical approach in economics and its fundamentals as they are coming from the philosophy of science. However, the author does not want to be treated as an advocate of this approach; this paper is an attempt to popularize several relevant features of neoclassical economics. In addition, he presents some evidence on neoclassical economics as an application of a set of logical arguments in favor of an instrumentalist research methodology. One of the sections of the paper explains the differences between the interwar neoclassical approach and the postwar approach of Arrow and Debreu. Another section deals with selected problems of the neoclassical versus neokeynesian business cycle theories. The author demonstrates that a frequently proclaimed superiority of the neokeynesian approach to business cycles may be only illusionary. Further, the author calls into question superficial criticisms of neoclassical economics that label its subject as "economics of Dr. Pangloss". Keywords: neoclassical methodology, neokeynesian economics, business cycle theory, problem of induction, realism of assumptions, instrumentalism Volume: 2000 Issue: 6 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/187 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2000:y:2000:i:6:id:187 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tomáš Pavelka Title: John Maynard Keynes: válečné reparace a transferový problém Title: John Maynard Keynes: war reparations and transfer problem Abstract: This article is devoted to the transfer problem. The beginnings of transfer problem are connected with the war reparation after First world war. J.M. Keynes argued, that Germany was imposed not only by primary burden, but also by secondary burden, that means decrease of the Germany export prices. B. Ohlin on the other hand argued, that deterioration of terms of trade was not necessary. Ohlin used transfer of the purchasing power.
Versailles treaty and its consequences for Germany and the whole Europe is also shortly mentioned in this article. Keywords: Keynes, Ohlin, reparation, transfer problem, terms of trade, Versailles treaty Volume: 2000 Issue: 6 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/188 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2000:y:2000:i:6:id:188 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ivana Švarcová a kol. Title: Teoretické a praktické aspekty veřejných financí Volume: 2000 Issue: 6 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/189 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2000:y:2000:i:6:id:189 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jitka Koderová Title: Další původní česká publikace věnovaná dějinám ekonomického myšlení Volume: 2000 Issue: 6 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/190 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2000:y:2000:i:6:id:190 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martin Žižlavský Title: Proměny pohledu na cenu a vývoj ekonomie Volume: 2000 Issue: 6 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/191 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2000:y:2000:i:6:id:191 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jaromír Veber Title: Příručka pro efektivní uskutečňování změn Volume: 2000 Issue: 6 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/192 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2000:y:2000:i:6:id:192 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zuzana Dvořáková Title: Příspěvěk k interkulturnímu porozumění Volume: 2000 Issue: 6 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/193 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2000:y:2000:i:6:id:193 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jaromír Veber Title: Goldratt, E. M.: Kritický řetěz. Praha, Interquality 1999, 199 str. Volume: 2000 Issue: 6 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/194 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2000:y:2000:i:6:id:194