Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kamil Janáček
Author-Name: Eva Zamrazilová
Title: Rok 2002: zpomalí česká ekonomika?
Title: The year 2002 in the czech economy: a slowdown?
Abstract: Economic growth continued despite overall slowdown of world economy in 2001, due to strong domestic demand. Inflationary pressures remained under control as well as external imbalance. Czech exporters proved to be able to compete on demanding world markets even under weak demand and strong exchange rate of CZK. Strong inflow of FDI and solid macroeconomic fundamentals have been the main factors behind the strengthening of the Czech currency which seems to be resistant to monetary policy steps. Trends in the Czech economy in 2002 will be strongly determined by the timing and intensity of economic recovery in the US and Western Europe. Anyway, both parts of domestic demand - investment demand and private demand of households - are expected to continue in solid growth in 2002.
Keywords: economic growth, inflation, investment demand, consumer demand, world economic recovery, foreign direct investments
Volume: 2002
Issue: 3
Year: 2002
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/362
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2002:y:2002:i:3:id:362

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Petr Dufek
Author-Name: Marián Vávra
Author-Name: Milan Václavík
Title: Analýza vývoje české ekonomiky v roce 2001 a výhled na rok 2002 a 2003
Title: Analysis of czech economic development in the year of 2001 and outlook for 2002 and 2003
Abstract: This paper evaluates Czech economic development during 2001 and is supplemented by the predictions of basic economic indicators for 2002 and 2003. This article is divided in to several specific parts. In the beginning we focus on economic growth, including a marginal analysis of GDP and industrial production. It is possible to find a detailed net inflation analysis in Chapter two which consists of an explanation of current demand and supply factors and then we present an econometric estimate of the net inflation equation. This Chapter includes impulse-response analysis also. Raw material dependency and the intensity of Czech production is analyzed in Chapter three, including an econometric estimate of oil and gas prices. In the following Chapter - Labour Market - we focuses on gross nominal wage determinants in the Czech Republic. In the last two Chapters we evaluate fiscal and monetary policy, including a detailed interest rate analysis.
Keywords: econometric estimate, impulse-response analysis, net inflation equation, oil and gas equation, wage determinants, import intensity, energy dependency and intensity
Volume: 2002
Issue: 3
Year: 2002
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/363
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2002:y:2002:i:3:id:363

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Oldřich Dědek
Title: Česká ekonomika a euro
Title: The czech economy and the euro
Abstract: The article discusses issues concerning the prospects for euro adoption in the Czech economy. Once the Czech Republic becomes the member of the EU, it also must become - sooner or later - the member of the EMU. There are not too many options: in fact the freedom is only in the speed of euro adoption and partly in the bargaining about the central parity upon entering the ERM2. The article discusses objections regarding the sacrifice of autonomous monetary policy and similarly the problem of the nominal vs. real convergence. It further summarises major insights of the optimum currency area approach. The author does not find any strong arguments against an earlier euro adoption which would outweigh the benefits of the single currency for the Czech economy. Also the historical comparison with several EU countries in situation before joining the EMU shows the realistic background of the fast track strategy.
Keywords: monetary policy, financial crisis, European Union, price level, nominal and real convergence, euro adoption, optimum currency area
Volume: 2002
Issue: 3
Year: 2002
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/364
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2002:y:2002:i:3:id:364

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jan Hájek
Title: Slabá forma efektivnosti českého akciového trhu
Title: Weak-form efficiency test in the czech equity market
Abstract: This study tests the hypothesis of the weak form of capital market efficiency in the Czech Republic. Select statistical-econometric methods were applied to time series of daily, weekly and two-week stock and indices returns over 1995 - 2001. Results from Serial Correlation, Box-Pierce, and Variance Ratio tests provide evidence that a random-walk hypothesis cannot be validated with respect to the daily returns. The weak form of efficiency on the Czech equity market was not thus proved. However, positive development toward higher efficiency was identified. Since the launching of a new price-driven market system (SPAD) on the Prague Stock Exchange - based on market makers' quotations and which has improved stock liquidity - Czech market characteristics have significantly approached those of markets traditionally considered the most efficient.
Keywords: equity market, market efficiency, random walk, market behaviour, weak-form efficiency tests, time-series analysis
Volume: 2002
Issue: 3
Year: 2002
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/365
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2002:y:2002:i:3:id:365

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jan Čermák
Title: Teorie krize platební bilance a česká zkušenost
Title: The theory of balance of payments crisis and the czech experience
Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of the speculative attack on the pegged exchange rate of the CZK in the context of the classical theory of balance of payments crises. While provides a survey of the theoretical trends in the economic literature, the paper introduces a detail description of the first-generation model of the currency crises theory developed by Krugman, Flood and Garber. In the empirical section, using the index of exchange market pressure, the author identifies the Czech currency crisis as a relatively mild. The article then discusses behaviour of a variety macroeconomic and structural indicators before and after the speculative attack on the CZK in May of 1997. The author finds that the development of the economic fundamentals (the domestic credit, the net foreign assets, the real exchange rate or the current account balance) was consistent with conclusions of the first-generation models of the currency crisis theory.
Keywords: speculative attack, currency crisis, balance of payments crisis, CZK
Volume: 2002
Issue: 3
Year: 2002
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/366
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2002:y:2002:i:3:id:366

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jan Brůha
Title: Aplikované modely všeobecné rovnováhy
Title: Applied general equilibrium models
Abstract: This article focuses on applied general equilibrium models and explores main features of these models. Examples of successful applications of these models are demonstrated and appropriateness of the applied computable general equilibrium models in policy evaluation is assessed. Conditions of existence and uniqueness of an equilibrium are considered and techniques for finding such an equilibrium are discussed. The task of calibration of parameters for these models is dealt with. Dynamic forms of applied equilibrium models are shown to be useful tools for policy evaluation.
Keywords: economic policy, applied general equilibrium models, computational techniques, dynamic models
Volume: 2002
Issue: 3
Year: 2002
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/367
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2002:y:2002:i:3:id:367

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tomáš Sirovátka
Author-Name: Martin Žižlavský
Title: Český trh práce ve druhé polovině 90. let
Title: The czech labor market in the second half of the nineties
Abstract: The paper analyses the developments on the Czech labor market in 1996 - 2000 from the perspective of economic adjustment: employment, unemployment and active labor market policies. On the one hand increasing economic pressures intensified the pace of the changes. On the other hand signals of hysteresis on the supply-side of the labor market may be identified: worsening efficiency of job-search, growth of long-term unemployment, increasing level of NAIRU. Since the flexibility of the labor markets seems to be crucial for successful economic adjustment and economic growth within contemporary de-industrialized and globalized economy, role of active labor market policies may be more important to influence the flexibility of the labor-force.
Keywords: long-term unemployment, hysteresis, natural rate of unemployment, active labor market policy, flexibility
Volume: 2002
Issue: 3
Year: 2002
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/368
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2002:y:2002:i:3:id:368

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Petr Chmelík
Title: Vytěsňovací efekt v konstituční politice
Title: The crowding out effect in the constitutional policy
Abstract: The motivation crowding out effect suggests that external intervention via monetary incentives or punishments may undermine, and under different identifiable conditions strengthen, intrinsic motivation. Over the last few years the motivation crowding out effect has been integrated into economic theory and became the subject of discussion about the possibilities of development of more general human behavior model in the non-market economics. This study demonstrates that the effect is also of relevance in the constitutional policy. The methodological possibilities and limits of constitutional economics in the relationship to the motivation crowding out effect are discussed in this paper.
Keywords: institutions, civic virtue, constitutional economics, extrinsic motivation, homo economicus, intrinsic motivation, motivation crowding out
Volume: 2002
Issue: 3
Year: 2002
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/369
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2002:y:2002:i:3:id:369