Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marek Loužek Title: Indikátory hlasovací síly v Evropské unii Title: Voting power indicators in the European union Abstract: The article is concerned with voting indicators in the European Union. The first chapter constructs a model of voting power and defines four indicators: A. Simple relative power, B. Shapley-Shubik index, C. Banzhaf index, D. Coleman index. The second chapter defines data: the voting structure according the Nice Treaty and nine algorithms - variants of the EU enlargement. The third chapter summarizes empirical results. The fourth chapter discusses statistical relations between voting indicators. The fifth chapter brings conclusions. Keywords: game theory, EU enlargement, voting indicator, quantitative analysis, index of power, minimal winning coalitions Classification-JEL: C12, C43 Pages: 291-312 Volume: 2004 Issue: 3 Year: 2004 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=461.pdf File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/461 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2004:y:2004:i:3:id:461:p:291-312 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Josef C. Brada Author-Name: Vladimír Tomšík Title: Zahraniční investice a náchylnost k měnovým krizím: zkušenosti tranzitivních ekonomik Title: Foreign investment and perceptions of vulnerability to foreign exchange crises: evidence from transition economies Abstract: The article discusses different causes of financial crises and shows that the imputation of reinvested profits of the subsidiaries of foreign firms as a debit item on a host country's balance of payments account tends to overstate the current account deficit and to make the host country seem more vulnerable to financial crisis. It also shows that, because of the workings of the foreign direct investment financial life cycle, this phenomenon is most evident for countries that have recently received large inflows of capital. The transition economies of East Europe certainly fall among such countries. Authors verify the working of the foreign direct investment financial life cycle using a panel of transition economies. Keywords: financial crisis, foreign direct investment, balance of payments, transition economies Classification-JEL: F21, F23, F34 Pages: 313-329 Volume: 2004 Issue: 3 Year: 2004 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=462.pdf File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/462 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2004:y:2004:i:3:id:462:p:313-329 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Richard Outrata Author-Name: Michaela Gajdošová Author-Name: Mothana Saleh Obadi Title: Zahraničnoobchodný efekt vstupu Slovenska do colnej únie Európskej únie Title: Foreign trade effect of Slovakia accession to the EU custom union Abstract: The paper deals with some aspects of foreign trade impact of EU's custom union accession of Slovakia. It issues from the Jacob Viner's hypothesis on trade creation and trade diversion, and proves this hypothesis through chosen instrumentarium. Analysis leads to conclusion that due to gradual removing of tariff trade barriers mainly of non-agricultural commodities in the framework of free trade area can lead not only to tendency of inter-industry, as Viner assumed, but still in more extent towards intra-industry trade tendency based on international technological specialization. This was the Slovakia's case. After the EU accession it is expected trade creation with non-preferential third countries in non-agricultural commodities and with trade diversion in agricultural commodities. Jacob Viner's hypothesis should be completed and wider interpreted. Keywords: trade creation, international trade specialization, trade diversion, non preferential and preferential third countries, inter and intra-industry trade, unit cost and price advantages Classification-JEL: F15, F17 Pages: 330-343 Volume: 2004 Issue: 3 Year: 2004 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=463.pdf File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/463 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2004:y:2004:i:3:id:463:p:330-343 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jakub Fischer Title: Stabilita čtvrtletních odhadů užití hrubého domácího produktu Title: Quarterly estimates of expenditures on gross domestic product and their stability Abstract: The article is engaged in the improvement of quarterly information on the gross domestic product by type of expenditures from the first expectations to final data. It concludes that the first estimate of GDP is under-estimated. This underestimation is caused by underestimation of the final households consumption expenditures and of the gross fixed capital formation. At the balancing process, when the above-mentioned items of expenditures are under-estimated, the surplus of resources side could be allocated to the change in stock of inventories item. Thus this item contains the discrepancy between the resources side and expenditures side of GDP and is disqualified from its role in business-cycle analysis. Differences of biases in constant prices data and in current prices data are also stated. Keywords: gross domestic product, statistical deflating, GDP estimates revisions, statistical discrepancy Classification-JEL: C82, E30 Pages: 344-355 Volume: 2004 Issue: 3 Year: 2004 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=464.pdf File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/464 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2004:y:2004:i:3:id:464:p:344-355 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Radka Rutarová Title: Populační vývoj a ekonomická aktivita obyvatel České republiky v letech 1993 - 2002 a výhled do roku 2050 Title: Demographic development and Czech labour supply in 1993 - 2002 and future prospects up to 2050 Abstract: The main object of this paper is to explain the significance of the key factors which determined the labour force of the Czech population in the period 1993 - 2002. These key factors are the age structure irregularities and the changes in the labour force participation rates by age. The first part is focused on the description of the demo- graphic development in the Czech Republic. The second one contains the analysis of the Czech labour force. The changes in the labour force participation rates by age had negative effect, while age structure irregularities had positive effect on labour supply in 1993 - 2002. But it is possible that in the near future the age structure will become worse because of the ageing of the Czech population. For this reason the expected demo-graphic development of the Czech population up to 2050 and its implications for future labour supply of the population are also discussed in this paper. Keywords: labour market, ageing, labour supply, demographic development, population forecast, labour force participation Classification-JEL: J11, J22 Pages: 356-374 Volume: 2004 Issue: 3 Year: 2004 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/465 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2004:y:2004:i:3:id:465:p:356-374 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michal Pazour Title: Nové metodologické přístupy k tvorbě empirických modelů měnových krizí Title: New methodological approaches to the construction of currency crashes models Abstract: The large financial crises in the last decade have increased the interest of many economists in searching for some indicators, which can predict speculative attacks on currencies. Most of these studies concern on emerging economies, because they are more vulnerable to such speculative attacks. This paper points out main methodological issues of two standard approaches to the construction of the early warning system - the signal approach and the regression probit or logit model approach. Based on avoiding these issues alternative approaches have been evolved. Three of them - two regimes model, VAR model and Markov-switching model - are described in the next part of this paper. The comparison of predictive power shows the importance of the construction of country specific early warning systems. Keywords: econometric model, currency crises, early warning Classification-JEL: C53, F31, F47 Pages: 375-388 Volume: 2004 Issue: 3 Year: 2004 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=466.pdf File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/466 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2004:y:2004:i:3:id:466:p:375-388 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mária Tokárová Title: Vývoj teórií konkurencie, súťaživosti a protimonopolnej politiky Title: Eevolution of theories of competition, competitiveness and antimonopoly policy Abstract: The paper presents in contribution the development of theories and opinions about competition, competitiveness and antimonopoly policy. These topics are treated starting from the oldest time, e.g. from Aristotle, through antique world, early capitalism, A. Smith and the classical Ricardian tradition. She further discusses the ruinous competition and the origin of the first framework of anti-trust legislation at the break of 19th and 20th centuries, Marx's interpretation of concentration tendencies of capitalist development and his followers, the origin of imperfect competition, ordoliberalism and the system of neoliberal politics and at last the dynamic theory of competition - concept of workable competition as well as theory of "balancing force" and the concept of so-called mature corporations. Keywords: competitiveness, competition, imperfect competition, economic competition policy Classification-JEL: D42, D43, L11, L12, L49 Pages: 389-410 Volume: 2004 Issue: 3 Year: 2004 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/467 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2004:y:2004:i:3:id:467:p:389-410