Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Milan Žák Title: Politické riziko v tranzitivních ekonomikách a v Evropské Unii Title: Political risk in transition economies and the European Union Abstract: The article deals with political risk, its definition, assessment and measuring. In the theoretical part different approaches to the definition of political risk are discussed and methodical approaches to its measuring and assessment are explained. The practical part is focused on the analysis of political risk assessment in transition countries of Europe and in countries of former Soviet Union compared to political risks in EU countries. The conclusions indicate that transition economies lag behind substantially in the areas of corruption, law observance and bureaucracy quality. For economic policy it is urgent to improve the quality of the institutional environment. Keywords: investment, European Union, political risk, quality of institutions, transition economics Classification-JEL: E61, F21, G38, O40 Volume: 2005 Issue: 1 Year: 2005 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/493 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2005:y:2005:i:1:id:493 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Slavoj Czesaný Title: Tendence a faktory vývoje hospodářského cyklu v České republice Title: Trends and factors of the business cycle development in the Czech Republic Abstract: The goal of analysis of business cycle development in the Czech Republic is to identify causes and consequences of economic activity fluctuations in the 1990 to 2003 period. The approach to analysis of economic activity fluctuations is based on this part of business cycle theory which is oriented to the links between macroeconomic equilibrium and economic growth. Description of contexts between changes in the economic environment, nature of the demand and supply side of the economy and a character of external and internal balance provides the economic framework for the analysis. The decomposition of supply and demand to its components enabled the identification of their sensitivity to the business cycle development. Special emphasis is put on the indicators of internal and external balances which signal in advance the possibility of an economic slowdown or a drop in the economic activity. Keywords: investment, economic growth, business cycle, export, import, privat consumption Classification-JEL: E3, E6, O11 Volume: 2005 Issue: 1 Year: 2005 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/494 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2005:y:2005:i:1:id:494 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jan Pudlák Author-Name: Pavel Neset Title: ZvláŠtnosti vzniku českého kapitálového trhu Title: Specific features of the emerging of the czech capital markets Abstract: Focus is made on the historical circumstances of the arising of the Czech capital markets. Transformation from state-owned enterprises to private businesses and corporations, via coupon (or voucher) privatization, i.e. distribution of shares to a large number of small shareholders, required a tailor made capital markets. Two competitive project were launched: Prague Stock Exchange and RM-System. As investment funds collected investment vouchers and become important shareholders, large packages of shares were formed and new majority shareholders stepped into their rights and powers. The transfer of ownership finished, public markets lost their broad clientele and had to reduce number of titles traded substancially. Todays capital markets in the Czech Republic are mostly OTC markets, with some contribution of public markets (RMS and PSE), of which more important is the Prague Stock Exchange. The latter is still not fully functional - there has not been any important public offering so far. Keywords: ownership, voucher privatization, Czech capital markets, Prague Stock Exchange, large-scale privatization, RM-System, coupon privatization, Czech investment funds, investment vouchers Classification-JEL: E22, G14, G32 Volume: 2005 Issue: 1 Year: 2005 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/495 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2005:y:2005:i:1:id:495 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dana Viktorová Title: Nekonzistence cílování inflace a maastrichtských kritérií: Impossible trinity Title: Inconsistency of inflation targeting with the maastricht criteria: A case of impossible trinity Abstract: The paper discusses the issue of impossible trinity and its potential threat for Central and Eastern European countries operating under an inflation-targeting regime during the convergence process before entering the euro area. The threat of monetary policy inconsistency (the impossible trinity) consists of a conflict of the two monetary aims - the criterion of internal price stability and external stability of exchange rates. Providing study on monetary development in Hungary in 2003, as the National Bank of Hungary fought against the speculative attack on a strong edge of the Hungarian forint's fluctuation band. However, Bank's lowering the interest rates significantly together with consequent impacts on internal stability can be considered as monetary policy inconsistency. Keywords: exchange rate, inflation targeting, speculative attack, Maastricht criteria, impossible trinity, ERM-II Classification-JEL: E42, E52, E58, E61 Volume: 2005 Issue: 1 Year: 2005 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/496 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2005:y:2005:i:1:id:496 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Josef Arlt Author-Name: Miroslav Plašil Author-Name: Richard Horský Title: Nový Keynesovský model inflace a jeho empirické ověření Title: New-Keynesian model of inflation and its empirical verification Abstract: New concepts have been presented in modelling of inflation dynamics recently, among others the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). There are several traditional ways of NKPC model validity testing, but none of them seems to be practically applicable in conditions of the Czech Republic. We tried to test the validity of the NKPC model by the untraditional method proposed by Demery and Duck (2002). This method does not rely on direct estimation of NKPC parameters, but relatively easy tests based on the cointegration analysis of time series are employed. Its application indicates that the NKPC model cannot be considered as effective in conditions of the Czech Republic; this model does not describe the inflation process sufficiently and it is not a suitable model for inflation prediction or for the choice of appropriate monetary (anti-inflation) policy. Keywords: inflation, time series, model, New-Keynesian Phillips curve, cointegration analysis Classification-JEL: C22, E12, E31 Volume: 2005 Issue: 1 Year: 2005 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/497 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2005:y:2005:i:1:id:497 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Juraj Nemec Author-Name: Jozef Medveď Author-Name: Markéta Šumpíková Title: Ohodnotenie výkonnosti verejnej správy: Teoretické východiská a skúsenosti z experimentu v Slovenskej republike Title: Performance measurement in public administration: Selected theory and experience from Slovakia Abstract: Public administration significantly changes during last years. One of main reforms is switch from administration to management, based also on implementation of private management tools in the public sector. The impact and outcomes of such approaches are not only positive, especially in specific conditions of Central and Eastern European countries. Because of this such approaches shall be introduced carefuly, and on case by case basis. As the part of public administration reform Slovakia introduced the experiment to measure performance of state administration offices in four dimensions: professional quality of performance (the quality of administrative actions), client satisfaction, employee satisfaction, efficiency of performance - of delivery of products. Only last three objectives were met by the experiment, and it was stopped in 2003. In spite of this, this experiment may serve as important lesson for future similar attempts in any of countries of our region. Keywords: government, quality and effectiveness, public administration, customer satisfaction, New Public Management, employee satisfaction, district and regional offices, cost-centres Classification-JEL: H83, M11 Volume: 2005 Issue: 1 Year: 2005 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/498 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2005:y:2005:i:1:id:498 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michal Slavík Title: Úvod do moderních přístupů analýzy časových řad: Stavově prostorové modely a Kalmanův filtr Title: Introduction to time series modeling: State space models and Kalman filter Abstract: This contribution undertakes to outline the state space models and the recursive technique called the Kalman filter to a wider audience of the Czech economics readers. One can find both terms in a whole range of empirical studies from recent years. Following this approach also allows us among other things to model unobservable variables such as the potential output or the natural rate of unemployment. The primary motivation of this article is to bring a basic introduction to the reader who does not deal with the time series analysis on an everyday basis and to sketch the roots of state space models and the Kalman filter. Those who are interested can find more proper and rigorous description in the original literature. Keywords: econometric modeling, state space models, Kalman filter Classification-JEL: C13, C32, C50, E17 Volume: 2005 Issue: 1 Year: 2005 File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/499 File-Format: text/html Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2005:y:2005:i:1:id:499