Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Aleš Melecký
Author-Name: Martin Melecký
Author-Name: Monika Šulganová
Title: Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice
Title: Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic
Abstract: Aggregate non-performing loans are the loans of a banking sector with delayed payments. This paper examines how aggregate non-performing loans (NPLs), as an indicator of aggregate credit risk, respond to macroeconomic developments in the Czech Republic. It uses data for the period 1993-2014 and the Bayesian estimation method of instrumental variables. This method exploits a priori information from similar studies for other countries and considers the potential endogeneity of macroeconomic developments vis-a-vis non-performing loans. The estimation results reveal a strong persistence of NPLs and a significantly positive and robust, effect of economic growth and income effect of the exchange rate on the financial condition of borrowers. We also find a significantly negative and robust effect of lending rates on the financial condition of borrowers. The effects of inflation and unemployment are significant but not as robust as the experience of other countries suggests. The balance sheet effect of the exchange rate is positive, but its significance is changing with model specifications. For economic policy, a timely, real depreciation of the koruna in response to rising credit risk could be an effective measure to stabilize the solvency of the banking sector.
Keywords: bayesian estimation, systemic credit risk, Czech banking system, non-performing loans, instrumental variables, a priori information
Classification-JEL: E32, G21, G28
Pages: 921-947
Volume: 2015
Issue: 8
Year: 2015
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=1045.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/1045
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2015:y:2015:i:8:id:1045:p:921-947
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Lukáš Pfeifer
Author-Name: Zdeněk Pikhart
Title: Vliv měnových podmínek na jednotlivé kategorie cen v České Republice v kontextu měnové a makroobezřetnostní politiky
Title: The Effect of Monetary Conditions on Individual Categories of Prices in the Czech Republic
Abstract: The article deals with the theoretical issues of macro-prudential policy, the influence of risk channel of monetary policy on financial stability and the cooperation of macro-prudential and monetary policy, respectively the compatibility of the objectives of these policies. On the Czech economy data is therefore tested the relationship between monetary policy conditions and prices of selected categories. The model results open the door to greater use especially of the industrial producer price index, respectively its sub-indices, for the coordination of monetary and macro-prudential policy in the Czech Republic.
Keywords: monetary policy, financial stability, index of monetary conditions, impulse-response functions, risk channel of monetary policy, macro-prudential policy
Classification-JEL: E310, E320, E520, E580
Pages: 948-966
Volume: 2015
Issue: 8
Year: 2015
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=1046.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/1046
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2015:y:2015:i:8:id:1046:p:948-966
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Petr Brabec
Author-Name: Karina Kubelková
Title: Predikované dopady realizace chilské penzijní reformy v České Republice
Title: Predicted Effects of Chilean Pension Reform Application in the Czech Republic
Abstract: The article analyzes the possible impacts of the fully-funded (FF) pension system (the so-called Chilean model), which was introduced in the Czech Republic in 2012, on future pensions of contributors to the system and on state expenditures related to the pension system reform. The author performed calculations for 3 model examples of individuals who would participate solely in the FF and also of individuals who would contribute to both the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) and the FF during their lives. The calculations in all model examples were made for 4 average real annual interest rates and for 4 standardised income levels. The income replacement rates of the examined individuals were compared with the existing PAYG and with a hypothetical balanced PAYG. The aim was to determine the minimum rate of the pension funds´ appreciation from whichthe transition to the FF would be profi table for all examined individuals. The article also attempts to identify the duration of the transition period, the moment after which the FF would become budget-neutral, and the approximate cost of the transition process.
Keywords: PAYG, pension system, Czech Republic, Chile, capital accounts, fully-funded system, pay-as-you-go system, FF
Classification-JEL: G230, H550, H680, H750, J320
Pages: 967-989
Volume: 2015
Issue: 8
Year: 2015
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=1047.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/1047
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2015:y:2015:i:8:id:1047:p:967-989
X-File-Ref: http://www.vse.cz/RePEc/prg/jnlpol/references/1047

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Lucia Bartůsková
Title: Pracovní motivace českých matek s dětmi do tří let
Title: Work Motivation of Czech Mothers with Children under Three Years of Age
Abstract: This article addresses the issue of the relationship of parenthood, employment and economic inactivity of childcare holders. It focuses on the mother’s motivation to work in the context of Czech social policy measures. The aim is to empirically verify the willingness of women, taking care of children under three years old, to return to work. The decision of mothers, about their participation the labour market, is analysed by indicator “Effective cost of return to work” and by using sensitivity analysis. Negative net fi nancial effect of return to work was identifi ed for all studied regions and types of workloads. These results demonstrate clearly that mothers, entering the labour market, are confronted with very high additional costs. These costs would not be covered by their employment income and other received benefi ts. Estimated amount of potential wage, which would encourage women to return to work, reach in some cases up to four times the median wage of women in the particular region.
Keywords: labour market, employment of women, motivation to work, harmonization of work and family life, institutional care of children, fi nancial support
Classification-JEL: E24, H24, H55, J13, J21
Pages: 990-1005
Volume: 2015
Issue: 8
Year: 2015
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=1048.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/1048
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2015:y:2015:i:8:id:1048:p:990-1005
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Karel Zeman
Title: Národohospodářské efekty privatizačního procesu v České republice
Title: National Economics Effects of the Privatization Process in the Czech Republic
Abstract: The transformation of centrally planned economy to a market economy has confi rmed that the basic premise for the economic policy, characterized by liberal market economy, is democratically established property rights. This text analyzes the National Economic effects of one of the most complex transformation processes, which is the process of privatization. This publication examines all three legal regimes through which were the entire privatization process implemented. These are “The Small Privatization“ according to the Act no. 427/1990 Coll., “The Large-scale Privatization“ according to the Act no. 92/1991 Coll. and “The privatization of agricultural and forestry property“ according to the Act no. 229/1991 Coll. and the Act no. 95/1999 Coll., with respect to the: affected economic theories, theory of property rights in particular, transaction costs theory, theory of interested groups, rent-seeking theory, theory of government failure, etc.; macroeconomic analysis of the process itself; macroeconomic analysis of the use of the proceeds from the privatization process; evaluation of the National Economic effects, whether positive or negative, of the privatization process in the Czech Republic. The aim of this text is to provide professional and comprehensive overview of the National Economic effects of the privatization process as a whole, which has not been published until now by any author in view of the fact that the perception of the privatization process of the professionals and the general public has been narrowed to a process implemented by the National Property Fund and the Ministry of Finance (by selling shares through vouchers). Finally, the aim of this publication is to analyze the application of economic theories within the privatization process in the Czech Republic which describes the pros and cons of this unique economic and national economy “experiment“.
Keywords: property rights, privatization process, state property, rent-seeking, national property fund of the Czech Republic, land fund of the Czech Republic
Classification-JEL: H810, H820, P210, P260, Q150
Pages: 1006-1031
Volume: 2015
Issue: 8
Year: 2015
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=1049.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/1049
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2015:y:2015:i:8:id:1049:p:1006-1031
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Antonie Doležalová
Title: Budování kapitalismu v postkomunistických zemích (recenze knihy Myant, Drahokoupil: Tranzitivní ekonomiky. Politická ekonomie Ruska, východní Evropy a Střední Asie)
Pages: 1032-1034
Volume: 2015
Issue: 8
Year: 2015
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=1050.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/1050
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2015:y:2015:i:8:id:1050:p:1032-1034