Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jan Hanousek
Author-Name: Evžen Kočenda
Author-Name: Pavla Vozárová
Title: VLIV PŘÍMÝCH ZAHRANIČNÍCH INVESTIC NA DODAVATELSKÉ VZTAHY A POSTAVENÍ DOMÁCÍCH VÝROBCŮ MEZIPRODUKTŮ
Title: FDI’s Impact on Inter-industry Interactions among Domestic Suppliers of Intermediate Goods
Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the extent of the impact of FDI on the host economy according to theoretical predictions. Within a broader context of international trade flows, we focus on interindustry interactions between a multinational enterprise (MNE) that enters the domestic market and other firms in the economy. We seek to determine if the MNE uses domestic suppliers of intermediate goods or if it purchases its supplies from abroad or from other MNEs entering the downstream sector. Our analysis covers both Western and Eastern European countries over the period 2001-2007. Our results show that FDI increases the demand for intermediary goods. However, domestic producers of these goods can benefit only partially from this positive shock, since they are at the same time crowded-out by MNEs entering the upstream sector as well as by importers.
Keywords: international trade, Europe, FDI, multinational enterprise, downstream sector, inter-industry interactions
Classification-JEL: C23, F14, F21, F23
Pages: 391-409
Volume: 2017
Issue: 4
Year: 2017
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=1151.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/1151
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2017:y:2017:i:4:id:1151:p:391-409
X-File-Ref: http://www.vse.cz/RePEc/prg/jnlpol/references/1151

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jan Vlachý
Title: Analýza daňových systémů středoevropských zemí pomocí statistické simulace
Title: An Analysis of Central European Tax Systems Using Statistical Simulation
Abstract: This paper uses a parametric statistical simulation (Monte Carlo) model to investigate and compare the effective lifetime tax burden on variable incomes for private-sector employees in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary, based on current rates and calibrated against actual income distributions. It is shown that the existing Czech system is highly inefficient, lacking horizontal as well as vertical equity, and this is aggravated by increased income volatility. On the other hand, higher income risk in all countries, except Hungary using flat tax, results in less progression than expected, primarily due to the existence of a minimum wage, which effectively serves as insurance, and which the dynamic model captures as a system feedback. This finding may contribute to a reassessment of existing assumptions on the detrimental effect of progressive tax systems on the incentives of individuals to undertake risky decisions, such as investments in human capital.
Keywords: public finance, Visegrad group, lifelong tax burden, personal income tax, risky incomes, statistical simulation
Classification-JEL: C53, H21, H24
Pages: 410-423
Volume: 2017
Issue: 4
Year: 2017
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=1152.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/1152
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2017:y:2017:i:4:id:1152:p:410-423
X-File-Ref: http://www.vse.cz/RePEc/prg/jnlpol/references/1152

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ondřej Čížek
Title: Reakční funkce Evropské centrální banky
Title: The Reaction Function of the European Central Bank
Abstract: The forecast-based reaction function of the European Central Bank (ECB) is estimated in this paper and the change in the monetary policy regime is discussed in the context of the current economic crisis. ECB/Eurosystem staff projections database is utilized in order to estimate the rule. The advantage of using this database is demonstrated by comparing the results of econometric estimation utilizing these data on projections with the results obtained by popular method of using future values as proxies for expectations. This popular method is shown to be inadequate in this paper not only by econometric verification of alternative forms of the estimated reaction function. Its inadequacy is demonstrated also by analyzing statistical properties of the time series and by showing that standard econometric assumptions do not hold when using future values as proxies for expectations. It is further shown that current values are more suitable proxies for expectations than values actually observed in the future. This fact provides an answer to the question analyzed recently by Arlt, Mandel (2012), (2014) who investigated how is it possible that simple backwardlooking rules perform extremely well when describing forward-looking behavior of central banks.
Keywords: monetary policy, rational expectations, reaction function, backward-looking, forward-looking, forecast-based, shadow rate
Classification-JEL: E37, E58
Pages: 424-439
Volume: 2017
Issue: 4
Year: 2017
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=1153.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/1153
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2017:y:2017:i:4:id:1153:p:424-439
X-File-Ref: http://www.vse.cz/RePEc/prg/jnlpol/references/1153

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Danuše Nerudová
Author-Name: Veronika Solilová
Author-Name: Hana Bohušová
Author-Name: Patrik Svoboda
Author-Name: Marek Litzman
Title: Panelový regresní model: nástroj pro odhad obvyklé rentability tržeb pro účely převodních cen v kontextu malých a středních podniků
Title: Panel Regression Model: A Tool for the Estimation of the Arm´s Length SME Profitability
Abstract: In this paper we focus on transfer pricing issues of SME with aim to propose a methodological tool in the form of panel-regression model estimating arm´s length EBIT margin of industry where SME is operating, which is based on the Action Plan of the European Commission to ensure fair and effective corporate taxation, fulfilling the premise of simplicity and non-increasing the administrative burden and compliance costs of taxation. As a result separate panel regression models were determined for each industry sectors and EU Member States based on the variables, such as operating revenues, payroll, added value and tangible fixed assets. Those regression factors are able to statistically significantly explain the variability in the generation of EBIT margin in case of SME in EU 28, which is often used for transfer pricing purposes. Panel regression models can be used as a simple methodological tool to estimate the arm´s length SME profitability in the industry sector and the state where is SME operating. Moreover, it is able to identify possible distortion of transfer prices if SME is not generating arm´s length EBIT margin based on the model.
Keywords: transfer pricing rules, European union (EU), small and medium-sized entities (SME), arm’s length principle, regression model
Classification-JEL: F23, G38, K33
Pages: 440-459
Volume: 2017
Issue: 4
Year: 2017
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=1154.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/1154
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2017:y:2017:i:4:id:1154:p:440-459
X-File-Ref: http://www.vse.cz/RePEc/prg/jnlpol/references/1154

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Petr Špecián
Title: Ekonomická analýza referenda
Title: Economic Analysis of a Referendum
Abstract: The paper synthesizes the current literature regarding information aggregation, voter competence, voting paradox and behavioral economics in order to answer the question whether the phenomenon of "wisdom of the crowds" can be reasonably relied upon during a referendum. Review of the ‘wisdom of the crowds’ research reveals two key assumptions: voter competence and voter independence. Although direct testing of the actual fulfillment of these assumptions in a real-world setting is not possible, both empirical literature on voting behavior and rational choice theory provide ample ground for skepticism in this regard. Low level of knowledge together with unmitigated influence of systematic biases is expected to dominate the actual voting behavior. Affect heuristic is used as an example to illustrate this point. The paper concludes that referendum does not seem to be a reliable way to revealing preferences regarding various social issues.
Keywords: wisdom of the crowds, Condorcet jury theorem, miracle of aggregation, Hong-Page theorem, paradox of voting, affect heuristic, referendum
Classification-JEL: D60, D72, D83
Pages: 460-475
Volume: 2017
Issue: 4
Year: 2017
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=1155.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/1155
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2017:y:2017:i:4:id:1155:p:460-475
X-File-Ref: http://www.vse.cz/RePEc/prg/jnlpol/references/1155

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tomáš Fiala
Author-Name: Jitka Langhamrová
Title: Jak může zahraniční migrace ovlivnit vývoj počtu a věkové struktury obyvatelstva České republiky?
Title: Impact of Foreign Migration on the Development of the Size and Age Structure of the Population of the Czech Republic
Abstract: As of 2015, the yearly number of live births in the Czech Republic will probably be lower than the number of deaths. Latest population forecast, presented by the Czech Statistical Office in 2013, shows that without permanent international immigration the population of the Czech Republic would decrease. The paper presents the results of our own population forecast, which takes into account the recent fertility increase observed in 2013-2015, and the replacement migration concept, i.e. the estimate of the amount of annual net migration needed to stabilize the Czech Republic population size at its current size (10.6 million of inhabitants) until the end of this century. Three different scenarios of future fertility levels are assumed. We also compare our results with the population forecast without migration and with constant net migration. Additionally to the population forecast itself, we present future trends in the productive, post-productive and oldage population, and compute old-age dependency ratios. We define the upper threshold of the productive age in agreement with the increasing retirement age in the Czech Republic. Based on our findings, we conclude that immigration is not able to stop the population ageing process as such, but can partially eliminate its consequences. Possible opportunities, as well as migration risks, are also discussed.
Keywords: Czech Republic, population projection, net migration, replacement migration, productive age, post productive age, old-age dependency ratio
Classification-JEL: J11, J61
Pages: 476-500
Volume: 2017
Issue: 4
Year: 2017
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=1156.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/1156
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2017:y:2017:i:4:id:1156:p:476-500
X-File-Ref: http://www.vse.cz/RePEc/prg/jnlpol/references/1156

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Adam Čabla
Author-Name: Ivana Malá
Title: Využití metod analýzy přežití pro modelování doby nezaměstnanosti v České republice
Title: The Use of Survival Analysis Methods for the Modelling of Unemployment in the Czech Republic
Abstract: Unemployment belongs to the most serious economic and social problems of developed countries. The problem can be described by the unemployment rate or number of the unemployed, in this text a duration of unemployment is of interest. The unemployment duration in the Czech Republic in 2008, 2010 and 2014 is analysed with the use of survival analysis methods and a finite mixture of lognormal distributions is used to describe an overall distribution of unemployment spell as well as the component distributions given by gender and education of the unemployed. Data from the Labour Force Sample Survey (performed by the Czech Statistical Office) are used for the statistical analysis. The unemployment duration is given in the questionnaire of the survey in intervals, we supposed the data to be right or interval censored, exact values of the unemployment duration are not included in the data. The strong positive effect of education on the duration of unemployment is quantified, as well as a less distinctive gender gap. An increase in unemployment duration is quantified for the period of economic crisis with respect to periods before (2008) and after (2014) the crisis.
Keywords: unemployment duration, censored data, finite mixture of probability distributions, survival analysis
Classification-JEL: C24, C41, J64
Pages: 501-519
Volume: 2017
Issue: 4
Year: 2017
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=1157.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/1157
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2017:y:2017:i:4:id:1157:p:501-519
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Luboš Smrčka
Title: Příspěvek k diskusi o aplikaci ekonomie v právu
Pages: 520-522
Volume: 2017
Issue: 4
Year: 2017
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=polek&pdf=1140.pdf
File-URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/1140
File-Format: text/html
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2017:y:2017:i:4:id:1140:p:520-522