Acta Oeconomica Pragensia 2012, 20(6):3-17 | DOI: 10.18267/j.aop.384

Discussion of Methods for Estimating the Shadow Economy

Hana Zídková
Ernst &Young, s.r.o. (hanazidkova@email.cz).

Which method of estimating the shadow economy is the best for the Czech Republic? To answer this question, it is necessary to compare the various existing methods and summarize the benefits and constraints of the individual approaches. At first, direct and indirect methods of estimating the shadow economy are described and various studies quantifying the shadow economy and tax gaps using different methods are mentioned. For each method, the advantages and drawbacks are explained based on the opinions of acknowledged authors engaged in the research in this area. Eventually, the models are compared and assessment methods for the shadow economy are recommended for different purposes depending on the intended use of the resulting estimates. In the conclusion, the partial statistical methods which can be combined to give a total assessment of the shadow economy as well as the indirect discrepancy method for calculating the VAT gap are suggested for the Czech Republic.

Keywords: shadow economy, assessment methods, estimates, tax gap
JEL classification: H26, O17

Published: October 1, 2012  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Zídková, H. (2012). Discussion of Methods for Estimating the Shadow Economy. Acta Oeconomica Pragensia20(6), 3-17. doi: 10.18267/j.aop.384
Download citation

References

  1. BARTHELEMY P The macroeconomic estimates of the hidden economy: A critical analysis. Review of Income and Wealth. 1988, vol. 34, no. 2, s. 190 [cit. 2012-03-25]. www.roiw.org/1988/183.pdf. Go to original source...
  2. CAGAN, P The Demand for Currency Relative to the Money Supply. Journal of Regional studies. 1958, vol. 66, no. 4. Go to original source...
  3. CALZARONI, M.; MADELIN, V. Exhaustivness of GDP Measurement: French and Italian Approaches. Presented at 24th General Conference of International Association for Research in Income and Wealth. Lillehammer, Norway, 2000.
  4. COBHAM, A. Tax evasion, tax avoidance, and development finance [Working Paper No. 129]. Queen Elisabeth House, 2005. [cit. 2012-03-26]. http://www3.qeh.ox.ac.uk/pdf/qehwp/qehwps129.pdf.
  5. CONTINI, B. Labour Market Segmentation and the Development of Parallel Economy: The Italian Experience. Oxford Economic Papers. 1981, vol. 33. no 4, s. 401-412. Go to original source...
  6. DALLAGO, B. The irregular economy in systematic transformation and statistical measurement [Research Paper]. Russan-European Centre for Economic Policy, 2002. [cit. 2012-03-25]. www.re-cep.ru/phase4/en/rp/dallagoe.pdf. Go to original source...
  7. DILNOT, A.; MORRIS, C. N. What do we know about the Black Economy? Fiscal Studies. 1981, vol. 2, no. 1, s. 58-73. Go to original source...
  8. FASSMANN, M. Stínová ekonomika II. Stínová ekonomika v České republice. Praha : Národohospodářský ústav Josefa Hlávky, 2003. ISBN 80-86729-04-4.
  9. FASSMANN, M. Stínová ekonomika I. Příčiny, důsledky, měření. Praha : Sondy, 2002.
  10. FASSMANN, M. Stínová ekonomika III: Práce na černo a boj proti stínové ekonomice. Praha : Národohospodářský ústav Josefa Hlávky, 2006.
  11. FEIGE, E. How big is the irregular economy? Challenge. 1979, vol. 22, s. 5-13. Go to original source...
  12. FEIGE, E. L.; McGEE, R. T Sweden's Laffer Curve: Taxation and the Unobserved Economy. Scandinavian Journal of Economics. 1983, vol. 85, s. 499-519. Go to original source...
  13. FEIGE, E. L. Defining and Estimating Underground and Informal Economies: The New Institutional Economics Approach. World Development. 1990, vol. 18, no 7. ISSN 0305-750X. Go to original source...
  14. FERWERDA, J.; DELEANU, I.; UNGER, B. Revaluating the Tanzi-Model to Estimate the Underground Economy [Discussion Paper Series nr: 10-04]. Utrecht : Tjalling C. Koopmans Research Institute, 2010.
  15. FREY, B. S.; WECK-HANNEMANN. Estimating the Shadow Economy: A "Naive" Approach. Oxford Economic Papers. 1983, vol. 35, no. 1, s. 23-44. Go to original source...
  16. FUEST, C.; RIEDEL, N. Tax evasion, tax avoidance and tax expenditures in developing countries: A review of the literature. Report prepared for the UK Department for International Development (DFID). Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation, 2009. [cit. 19. 12. 2011]. www.sbs.ox.ac. uk/centres/tax/Documents/reports/TaxEvasionReportDFIDFINAL1906.pdf.
  17. GERVAIS, G. The size of the underground economy: a Statistics Canada. National Accounts and Environment Division, Statistics Canada, 1994. http://books.google.cz/books?id=W3KbGwAACAAJ.
  18. GILES, D. E. A.; TEDDS, L. M.; WERKNEH, G. The Canadian underground and measured economies: Granger causality results. Applied Economics. 2002, vol. 34, no. 18. s 2347-2352. Go to original source...
  19. GUTTMANN, P The Subterranean economy. Financial Analyst Journal. 1977, vol. 34, no. 1, s. 24-27. Go to original source...
  20. HANOUSEK, J.; PALDA, F. Předem odsouzeno k neúspěchu: Měření šedé ekonomiky tranzitivních zemí pomocí makroekonomických metod. Politická ekonomie. 2006, č. 2, s. 190-202. Go to original source...
  21. HANOUSEK, J.; PALDA, F. Vývoj daňových úniků v ČR: Analýza pomocí markovských řetězců. Finance a úvěr. 2006, roč. 56, č. 3-4, s. 127-151.
  22. HANOUSEK, J.; PALDA, F. Problems measuring the underground economy in The Evasional Kuznets Curve1 [Working paper series 390]. Praha : CERGE-EI, 2006. [cit. 8. 12. 2011]. ISSN 1211-3298. http://home.cerge-ei.cz/hanousek/The%20Evasional%20Kuznets%20Curve.pdf.
  23. HANSSON, A.; WALLBERG, K. Tax Gap Map for Sweden. [cit. 15. 12. 2011]. Swedish National Tax Agency, 2008. www.skatteverket.se/download/18.225c96e811ae46c823f800014872/Report_2008_1B.pdf.
  24. HAYES, K.; LOZANO, E. Validating of Exhaustivness of the GNP Estimates of the European Union Member States. Přednáška na Joint IASS/IAOS Conference, Statistics for Economic and Social Development. Voorburg, 1998.
  25. HM CUSTOMS AND EXCISE. Measuring Tax Gaps 2011. [cit. 18. 12. 2011]. London : HMRC, 2011. www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/mtg-2011.pdf.
  26. KAUFMANN, D.; KALIBERDA, A. Integrating the unofficial economy into the dynamics of post-socialist economies: A framework of analysis and evidence [World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 1691]. World Bank, 1996. http://ssrn.com/abstract=620508. Go to original source...
  27. KAZEMIER, B. Concealed Interest Income of Households in the Netherlands: 1977, 1979 and 1981. Public Finance. 1991, vol. 46, no. 3, s. 443-453.
  28. KAZEMIER, B.; VAN ECK, R. Survey Investigations of the Hidden Economy, Some Methodological Results. Journal of Economic Psychology. 1992, vol. 13, s. 569-587. Go to original source...
  29. KLOVLAND, T Tax Evasion and the Demand for Currency in Norway and Sweden. Is there a hoden relationship? The Scandinavian Journal of Economics. 1984, vol. 86, no 4, s. 423-439. Go to original source...
  30. KOTALA, J. Měření daňových úniků [Diplomová práce]. Praha : VŠE, 2011. [cit. 2012-03-26]. www.vse. cz/vskp/show_fle.php?soubor_id=937974.
  31. LACKO, M. Hidden Economy in East-European Countries in International Comparison [Working Paper]. Laxemburg : International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 1996.
  32. OECD. Measuring the Non-Observed Economy: A Handbook. Paris : OECD Publications, 2002. ISBN 92-64-19745-1. Go to original source...
  33. ONDRUŠ, V. Komentář k výsledkům mimořádné revize ročních národních účtů. [cit. 2011-03-25]. ČSÚ, 2011. http://apl.czso.cz/nufle/RevizeRNU2011.pdf
  34. PEDERSEN, S. The Shadow Economy in Germany, Great Britain and Scandinavia: A measurement based on questionnaire surveys, Statistics Denmark, 2003.
  35. RECKON LLP Study to quantify and analyse the VAT gap in the EU-25 Member States. [cit. 17. 12. 2011]. Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission, 2009. http://ec.euro-pa.eu/taxation_customs/resources/documents/taxation/tax_cooperation/combating_tax_fraud/reckon_report_sep2009.pdf.
  36. SCHNEIDER, F. Estimating of Danish Shadow Economyusing the currency demand approach and attempt. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics. 1988, vol. 88, no. 4. Go to original source...
  37. SCHNEIDER, F; ENSTE, D. The Shadow Economy: An International Survey. Cambridge (UK) : Cambridge University Press, 2002. ISBN 0-521- 81408-1.
  38. SCHNEIDER, F. Shadow Economies of 145 countries all over the world: What do we really know? [Mi-meo]. Linz : University of Linz, 2005. Go to original source...
  39. SCHNEIDER, F; BUEHN, A. Shadow Economies and Corruption All Over the World: Revised Estimates for 120 Countries. [cit. 11. 12. 2011]. Open-Access E-Journal. 2007. www.economics-ejournal. org/economics/journalarticles/2007-9. Go to original source...
  40. SMITH, J.; ADAMS, T. The Measurement of Selected Income Flows in Informal Markets, 1981 and 1985-86. Survey Research Center. Michigan : The University of Michigan, 1987.
  41. TANZI, V. The Underground Economy in the United States: Estimates and Implications. Banca Nazio-nale el Lavoro, Quarterly Review. 1980, vol. 135, no. 4, s 427-53.
  42. TANZI, V. The Unobserved Economy in the U.S. Annual Estimates 1930-1980. IMF Staff Papers. 1983, vol. 30, no. 2, s. 283-305. Go to original source...
  43. TODER, E. What is tax gap? [cit. 6. 12. 2011]. Urban Institut, 2007. www.urban.org/Uploaded-PDF/1001112_tax_gap.pdf.
  44. VINTROVÁ, R. Co nezachycuje statistika v ekonomickém růstu. Statistika. 1994, roč. 31, č. 12, s. 477-488. ISSN 0322-788x. www.vsem.cz/ces-vsem-ing-ruzena-vintrova-drsc.html.

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.