Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, 2018 (vol. 26), issue 1

Time series forecasting with a prior wavelet-based denoising step

Milan Bašta

Acta Oeconomica Pragensia 2018, 26(1):5-24 | DOI: 10.18267/j.aop.592  

We provide an extensive study assessing whether a prior wavelet-based denoising step enhances the forecast accuracy of standard forecasting models. Many combinations of attribute values of the thresholding (denoising) algorithm are explored together with several traditional forecasting models used in economic time series forecasting. The results are evaluated using M3 competition yearly time series. We conclude that the performance of a forecasting model combined with the prior denoising step is generally not recommended, which implies that a straightforward generalisation of some of the results available in the literature (which found the denoising...

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE REFERENCE CLASS FORECASTING METHOD FOR PROJECTS IMPLEMENTED IN A CHEMICAL INDUSTRY COMPANY

Renata Walczak, Tomasz Majchrzak

Acta Oeconomica Pragensia 2018, 26(1):25-33 | DOI: 10.18267/j.aop.593  

The purpose of this article is to present an industrial application of the Reference Class Forecasting Method (RCFM) developed by Kahneman and Tversky for planning and decision-making under uncertainty. Project plans are usually prepared on the basis of detailed calculations and arrangements according to selected project management methodology. Undertakings that are planned in this manner often fail and do not achieve their goals. However, the American Planning Association recommends using the RCFM as an additional method. The article presents four groups of projects implemented by a chemical industry company over four years. A few of the projects...

SURVIVAL ANALYSIS AS A TOOL FOR BETTER PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT PREDICTION

Michal Rychnovský

Acta Oeconomica Pragensia 2018, 26(1):34-46 | DOI: 10.18267/j.aop.594  

This paper focuses on using survival analysis models in the area of credit risk and on the modelling of the probability of default (i.e. a situation where the debtor is unwilling or unable to repay the loan in time) in particular. Most of the relevant scholarly literature argues that the survival models produce similar results to the commonly used logistic regression models for the development or testing of samples. However, this paper challenges the standard performance criteria measuring precision and performs a comparison using a new prediction-based method. This method gives more weight to the predictive power of the models measured on an ex-ante...

Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics 2017

Pavel Sirůček, Zuzana Džbánková

Acta Oeconomica Pragensia 2018, 26(1):67-72 | DOI: 10.18267/j.aop.597  

Richard H. Thaler was awarded the 2017 Nobel Prize for Economics for the Development of Behavioural Economics. His studies of psychological assumptions of economic decision-making processes and his contribution to the interconnection of economics and psychology were identified as pioneering.

Editorial

Jindřich Špička

Acta Oeconomica Pragensia 2018, 26(1):3-4 | DOI: 10.18267/j.aop.598  

The Role of Technological Change in Income Inequality in the United States

Elena Deskoska, Jana Vlčková

Acta Oeconomica Pragensia 2018, 26(1):47-66 | DOI: 10.18267/j.aop.596  

This paper examines the impact of the technological change on income inequality in the United States of America. This is done by integrating theoretical and analytical findings of the channels through which technological change affects income inequality. The research is based on century-long income inequality data sets, although it prioritises the study of income inequality between the 1970s and the 2010s. The two major causes of rising income inequality have been technological change and globalisation. The paper also accounts for the other inequality triggers that have resulted from the political and economic structure of the country. The spread of...