Prague Economic Papers 2003, 12(3):265-281 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.218

Can pro-natalist policy be effective?

Marek Loužek
University of Economics, 4, W. Churchill Sq., CZ - 130 67 Prague 3 and Center for Economics and Politics, Politických vězňů 10, CZ - 110 00 Prague 1 (e-mail: louzek@vse.cz).

The article is concerned with pro-natalist policies, examining empirically their effectiveness. There are proposed four hypotheses: continuous decline of the birth rate; adaptive model; natural-rate hypothesis; crowding-out hypothesis. Nine countries are tested: Germany, Italy, Sweden and France before the World War II and Romania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and East Germany during the communism. Best empirical results arise from the crowding-out hypothesis. Good results follow from the adaptive model and the continuous decline of birth rates. The natural-rate hypothesis has small explanatory power. Pro-natalist policies, according to this study, are not too effective.

Keywords: population policy, pro-natalist sentiment, static model, dynamic model, constant decline in the birth rate, adaptive model, natural-rate hypothesis, crowding-out hypothesis
JEL classification: C22, C52, J11, J13

Published: January 1, 2003  Show citation

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Loužek, M. (2003). Can pro-natalist policy be effective? Prague Economic Papers, 12(3), 265-281. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.218
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