Prague Economic Papers 2005, 14(2):117-129 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.257

Empirical Testing of New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Conditions of the Czech Republic in 1994 - 2003

Josef Arlt, Miroslav Plašil
University of Economics, 4, W. Churchill Sq., CZ - 130 67 Prague 3 (e-mail: arlt@vse.cz; plasil@vse.cz).

New concepts have been presented in modelling of inflation dynamics recently, among others the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). There are several traditional ways of NKPC model validity testing, but none of them seems to be practically applicable in conditions of the Czech Republic. We tried to test the validity of NKPC on the basis of time series. For this purpose we applied an interesting non-traditional method proposed by Demery and Duck. This method does not rely on direct estimation of NKPC parameters, but relatively easy tests based on the cointegration analysis of time series are employed. Its application indicates that the NKPC model cannot be considered as effective in conditions of the Czech Republic; this model does not describe the inflation process sufficiently and it is not a suitable model for inflation prediction or for the choice of appropriate monetary (anti-inflation) policy.

Keywords: inflation, time series, cointegration analysis, model, new Keynesian Phillips curve
JEL classification: C22, E12, E31

Published: January 1, 2005  Show citation

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Arlt, J., & Plašil, M. (2005). Empirical Testing of New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Conditions of the Czech Republic in 1994 - 2003. Prague Economic Papers, 14(2), 117-129. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.257
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