Prague Economic Papers 2011, 20(2):177-189 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.395

Fractional Cointegration Relationship between Oil Prices and Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis from G7 Countries

Burcu Kiran
Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, Beyazit, Istanbul, Turkey (burcukiran@gmail.com).

This paper examines the long-run relationship between oil prices and stock market prices of G7 countries by using Robinson (1994a) tests for fractional integration and cointegration instead of the classical approaches. Having found that the unit root null hypothesis cannot be rejected for any individual series, it is examined whether oil prices and stock market prices have a fractional cointegration relationship. Test results on the residuals from the cointegrating regressions indicate that there is evidence of fractional cointegration between oil prices and DAX 30, Dow Jones, FTSE 100 and SP-TSX indices while there is no evidence of fractional cointegration for others.

Keywords: fractional integration, fractional cointegration, oil prices, stock markets, G7 countries
JEL classification: C10, E44, G15

Published: January 1, 2011  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Kiran, B. (2011). Fractional Cointegration Relationship between Oil Prices and Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis from G7 Countries. Prague Economic Papers20(2), 177-189. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.395
Download citation

References

  1. Anoruo, E., Mustafa, M. (2007), "An Empirical Investigation into the Relation of Oil to Stock Market Prices." North American Journal of Finance and Banking Research, Vol.1, pp. 22-36.
  2. Basher, S. A., Sadorsky, P. (2006), "Oil Price Risk and Emerging Stock Markets." Global Finance Journal, Vol.17, pp. 224-251. Go to original source...
  3. Brown, S. P., Yücel, M. K. (2002), "Energy Prices and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Interpretative Survey." Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 42, pp. 193-208. Go to original source...
  4. Caporale, G. M., Gil-Alana, L. A. (2004), "Fractional Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models." Review of Financial Economics, Vol.13, pp. 245-258. Go to original source...
  5. Caporale, G. M., Gil-Alana, L. A. (2002), "Unemployment and Input Prices: A Fractional Cointegration Approach." Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 9, pp. 347-351. Go to original source...
  6. Cong, R. G. et al. (2008), "Relationships Between Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market: An Empirical Analysis From China." Energy Policy, Vol. 36, pp. 3544-3553. Go to original source...
  7. El-Sharif, I. et al. (2005), "Evidence on the Nature and Extent of the Relationship between Oil Prices and Equity Values in the UK." Energy Economics, Vol. 27, pp. 819-830. Go to original source...
  8. Gil-Alana, L. A. (1999), "Testing of Fractional Integration with Monthly Data." Economic Modelling, Vol. 16, pp. 613-629. Go to original source...
  9. Gil-Alana, L. A. (2000), "Mean Reversion in the Real Exchange Rates." Economics Letters, Vol. 16, pp. 285-288. Go to original source...
  10. Gil-Alana, L. A. (2001). "Testing of Stochastic Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series." Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 22, pp. 411-430. Go to original source...
  11. Gil-Alana, L. A. (2002b), "Structural Breaks and Fractional Integration in the US Output and Unemployment Rate." Economics Letters, Vol. 77, pp. 79-84. Go to original source...
  12. Gil-Alana, L. A. (2003), "Fractional Cointegration in Macroeconomic Time Series." Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 65, pp. 517-524. Go to original source...
  13. Gil-Alana, L. A. (2004), "Long Memory in the U.S. Interest Rate." International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol. 13, pp. 265-276. Go to original source...
  14. Gil-Alana, L. A., Robinson, P. M. (1997), "Testing of Unit Roots and Other Nonstationary Hypothesis in Macroeconomic Time Series." Journal of Econometrics, Vol.80, pp. 241-268. Go to original source...
  15. Gil-Alana, L. A., Robinson, P. M. (2001), "Testing of Seasonal Fractional Integration in the UK and Japanese Consumption and Income." Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.16, pp. 95-114. Go to original source...
  16. Granger, C. W. J., Joyeux, R. (1980), "An Introduction to Long-Memory Time Series Models and Fractional Differencing." Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol.1, pp. 15-29. Go to original source...
  17. Hammoudeh, S., Choi, K. (2006), "Behavior of GCC Stock Markets and Impacts of US Oil and Financial Markets." Research in International Business and Finance, Vol.20, pp. 22-44. Go to original source...
  18. Happe, L. N. (1984), South Korea in the Wake of the Oil Price Rise. New York and London: Garlang Publishing.
  19. Hosking, J. (1981), "Fractional Differencing." Biometrika, Vol. 68, pp. 165-176. Go to original source...
  20. Huang, R. D. et al. (1996), "Energy Shocks and Financial Markets." Journal of Futures Markets, Vol. 16, pp. 1-27. Go to original source...
  21. Jawadi, F., Leoni, P. L. (2009), "Threshold Cointegration Relationships Between Oil and Stock Markets." Discussion Papers on Business and Economics No.3. Go to original source...
  22. Jones, C. M., Gautam, K. (1996), "Oil and the Stock Markets." Journal of Finance, Vol. 51, pp. 463-491. Go to original source...
  23. Jones, D. W. et al. (2004), "Oil Price Shocks and the Macro Economy: What has been Learned since 1996?" The Energy Journal, Vol.25, pp. 1-32. Go to original source...
  24. Jones, M., Kaul, G. (1996), "Oil and the Stock Markets." The Journal of Finance, Vol. 51, pp. 463-491. Go to original source...
  25. Kwiatkoski, D. et al. (1992), "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?" Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 54, pp. 159-178. Go to original source...
  26. Lardic, S., Mignon, V. (2006), "Oil Prices and Economic Activity: An Asymmetric Cointegration Approach." Energy Economics, Vol. 34, pp. 3910-3915. Go to original source...
  27. Maghyereh, A. (2004), "Oil Price Shocks and Emerging Stock Markets: A Generalized VAR Approach." International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Vol. 1, pp. 27-40.
  28. Papapetrou, E. (2001), "Oil Price Shocks, Stock Market, Economic Activity and Employment in Greece." Energy Economics, Vol. 23, pp. 511-532. Go to original source...
  29. Park, J., Ratti, R. A. (2008), "Oil Price Shocks and Stock Markets in the US and 13 European Countries." Energy Economics, Vol. 30, pp. 2587-2608. Go to original source...
  30. Robinson, P. M. (1994a), "Efficient Tests of Nonstationary Hypothesis." Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 89, pp. 1420-1437. Go to original source...
  31. Sadorsky, P. (1999), "Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Activity." Energy Economics, Vol. 21, pp. 449-469. Go to original source...

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.