Prague Economic Papers 2015, 24(1):17-37 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.498

Czech Exports and German GDP: A Closer Look

Josef Taušer1, Markéta Arltová2, Pavel Žamberský3
1 Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, Department of International Trade, Prague, Czech Republic (tauser@vse.cz).
2 Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, Faculty of Informatics and Statistics, Prague, Czech Republic (arltova@vse.cz).
3 Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, Faculty of International Relations, Prague, Czech Republic (pavel.zambersky@vse.cz).

This paper analyses the relation between Czech exports in goods and services and German GDP. In order to contribute to the current state of knowledge the analysis goes more into detail in terms of disaggregating the German GDP. Do Czech exports depend more on German domestic absorption, or is it, rather, German exports which determine Czech exports? Does the Czech Republic produce goods for German consumers or is it an ""outsourced"" supplier to German export channels, instead? Co-integration analysis and the analysis of the commodity structure of Czech exports to Germany are employed to address these questions. The indings of this research indicate that the relationship between Czech exports and German GDP is a very complex one. The Czech economy can be considered a part of German distribution channels, which serves as its specialized outsourced production capacity.

Keywords: determinants of Czech exports, commodity structure of Czech exports, export concentration, co-integration analysis, ADL model, EC model
JEL classification: C5, F14

Published: January 1, 2015  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Taušer, J., Arltová, M., & Žamberský, P. (2015). Czech Exports and German GDP: A Closer Look. Prague Economic Papers, 24(1), 17-37. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.498
Download citation
  • BibTeX (.bib)
  • Bookends (.ris)
  • EasyBib (.ris)
  • EndNote (.enw)
  • EndNote 8 (.xml)
  • ISI WoS (.isi)
  • Medlars (.medlars)
  • Mendeley (.ris)
  • MODS (.xml)
  • Papers (.ris)
  • RefWorks (.txt)
  • RefManager (.ris)
  • RIS (.ris)
  • MS Word (.xml)
  • Zotero (.ris)
    • Open full article

    References

    1. Agosin, M. R., Alvarez, R., Bravo-Ortega, C. (2012), "Determinants of Export Diversification around the World: 1962-2000." World Economy, Vol. 35, No. 3, pp. 295-315. Go to original source...
    2. Ali, B., Sami, M. (2011), "Determinants of Tunisia's Exports: A Gravity Model Framework." Empirical Economics Letters, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 347-58.
    3. Arlt, J., Guba, M., Radkovský, Š., Sojka, M., Stiller, V. (2001), "Vliv vybraných faktorů na vývoj poptávky po penězích v letech 1994-2000." Politická ekonomie, Vol. 49, No. 5, pp. 635-657. Go to original source...
    4. Arlt, J., Arltová, M. (2009), Ekonomické časové řady. Prague: Professional Publishing.
    5. Balassa, B. (1964), "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal." The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 72, No. 6, pp. 584-596. Go to original source...
    6. Blanchard, J. O., Fischer, S. (2000), "Lectures on Macroeconomics." London: The MIT Press.
    7. Breusch, T., Godfrey, L. G. (1986), "Data Transformation Tests." Economic Journal, 96 (Souplement), pp. 47-58. Go to original source...
    8. CZSO (2012), External Trade. Volume 2012, Ref. No. 1222/2012-44, Prague: Czech Statistical Office.
    9. Čihák, M., Holub, T. (2000), "Cenová konvergence k Evropské unii - problém relativních cen." Politická ekonomie, Vol. 48, No. 5, pp. 660-670. Go to original source...
    10. Darnell, A. C. (1994), A Dictionary of Econometrics. Edward Elgar.
    11. Deardorff, A. V. (1982), "The General Validity of Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem." American Economic Review, Vol. 72, No. 4, pp. 683-694.
    12. Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A. (1979), "Distribution of Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root." Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, No. 366, pp. 427-431. Go to original source...
    13. Dungey, M. (2004), "Identifying Terms of Trade Efects in Real Exchange Rate Movements: Evidence from Asia." Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 217-235. Go to original source...
    14. Engle, R. F., Granger, C. W. J. (1987), "Cointegration and Error Correction Representation: Estimation and Testing." Econometrica, Vol. 55, No. 2, pp. 251-276. Go to original source...
    15. Gandolfo, G. (1986), International Economics. Berlin: Springer. Go to original source...
    16. Granger, C. W. J., Newbold, P. (1974), "Spurious Regressions in Econometrics." Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 111-120. Go to original source...
    17. Havrlant, D., Hušek, R. (2011), "Models of Factors Driving the Czech Export." Prague Economic Papers, Vol. 20, No. 3, pp. 195-215. Go to original source...
    18. Hendry, D., Pagan, A., Sargan, J. (1984), "Dynamic Specifications." Chapter 18 in Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. II (ed., Z. Griliches and M. Intriligator), North Holland. Go to original source...
    19. Jarque, C., Bera, A. (1980), "Efficient Tests for Normality, Heteroscedasticity, and Serial Independence of Regression Residuals." Economics Letters, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 255-259. Go to original source...
    20. Kaus, R. S. (2008), "An Inquiry into the Determinants of the Exports of China and India." China and World Economy, Vol. 16, No. 5, pp. 1-15. Go to original source...
    21. Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M. (2000), "International Economics: Theory and Policy", Reading: Addison-Wesley.
    22. Krugman, P. R. (1979), "Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition, and International Trade." Journal of International Economics, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 469-479. Go to original source...
    23. Majeed, M. T., Ahmad, E. (2006), "Determinants of Exports in Developing Countries." Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 45, No. 4, pp. 1265-75. Go to original source...
    24. Mandel, M., Tomšík, V. (2008), "External Balance in a Transition Economy: The Role of Foreign Direct Investments." Eastern European Economics, Vol. 46, No. 4, pp. 5-26. Go to original source...
    25. Nešvera, V. (2006), "Ceny v obchodě České republiky se zeměmi Evropské unie." Politická ekonomie, Vol. 54, No. 2, pp. 214-226. Go to original source...
    26. Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K. (1996), Foundations of International Macroeconomics. Cambridge; London: MIT Press.
    27. Ohlin, B. (1967), Interregional and International Trade. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
    28. Pilbeam K. (1992), International Finance. London: Macmillan Press LTD.
    29. Podkaminer, L. (2010), "Real Convergence and Price Levels: Long-Term Tendencies versus Short-Term Performance in the Enlarged European Union." Metroeconomica, Vol. 61, No. 4, pp. 640-64. Go to original source...
    30. Ricardo, D. (1817), On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. London: John Murray.
    31. Rojíček, M., Košťáková, T., Sixta, J. (2010), "Zahraniční obchod v pojetí platební bilance a národních účtů. Metodické změny v roce 2011" (Foreign Trade in the Concept of the Balance of Payments and National Accounts. Methodological Changes in 2011). Presentation, Workshop at the Czech Statistical Office and the Czech National Bank, Prague, 18.10.2010.
    32. Rojíček, M., Košťáková, T., Sixta, J. (2011), "Zahraniční obchod v národním pojetí. Metodické změny a údaje za roky 2009-2010 " (Foreign Trade in the National Concept. Methodological Changes and Data for the Years 2009-2010). Presentation, Workshop at the Czech Statistical Office, Prague, 7.3.2011.
    33. Rojíček, M., Košťáková, T., Sixta, J. (2012), "Ownership Principle in the Foreign Trade Statistics: Czech Approach." Statistika, Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 5-22.
    34. Romalis, J. (2004), "Factor Proportions and the Structure of Commodity Trade." American Economic Review, Vol. 94, No. 1, pp. 67-97. Go to original source...
    35. Rose, A. K. (2004), "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?" American Economic Review. Vol. 94, No. 1, pp. 98-114. Go to original source...
    36. Rybczinski, T. M. (1955), "Factor Endowments and Relative Commodity Prices." Economica, Vol. 22, No. 88, pp. 336-341. Go to original source...
    37. Samuelson, P. A. (1964), "Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems." The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 46, No. 2., pp. 145-154. Go to original source...
    38. Smith, A. (2001), Pojednání o podstatě a původu bohatství národů. Prague: Liberální institut.
    39. Stolper, W. F., Samuelson, P. A. (1941), "Protection and Real Wages." Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp.58-73. Go to original source...
    40. Tomšík, V. (2000), "Analysis of Foreign Trade in the Czech Republic." Eastern European Economics, Vol. 38, No. 6, pp. 43-68. Go to original source...
    41. Tomšík, V. (2001), "Regresní analýza funkcí zahraničního obchodu ČR v letech 1993-1998." Finance a úvěr, Vol. 51, No. 1, pp. 46-58. Go to original source...
    42. Turner, G. (2011), "Financial Geography and Access as Determinants of Exports." Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 269-86. Go to original source...
    43. U.S. Census Bureau (2004), X-12-ARIMA. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce.
    44. Vanek, J. (1968), "The Factor Proportions Theory: the N-Factor Case." Kyklos, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 749-756. Go to original source...
    45. Vintrová, R. (2007), "Reálná a nominální konvergence v zemích středoevropské pětky." Politická ekonomie, Vol. 55, No. 2, pp. 206-25. Go to original source...
    46. Vural, I. Y., Zortuk, M. (2011), "Foreign Direct Investment as a Determining Factor in Turkey's Export Performance." Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, Vol. 4, No. 7, pp. 13-23.
    47. Wilson, S. J., Mann, C. L., Otsuki, T. (2005), "Assessing the Potential Benefit of Trade Facilitation: Global Perspective," In: Dee, P. S.: Quantitative Methods for Assessing the Effects of Non-Tariff Measures and Trade Facilitation. River Edge: World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated. Go to original source...

    This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.


    Return to the content