Prague Economic Papers 2019, 28(1):3-29 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.685

Smoking Czechs: Modelling Tobacco Consumption and Taxation

Karel Janda1, Martin Strobl2
1 Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Finance and Accounting, University of Economics, Prague, Czech Republic (Karel-Janda@seznam.cz)
2 Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic (martin@martinstrobl.cz)

We model the future tobacco consumption, size of smoking population and governmental tax revenues in the Czech Republic. The main model assumption states that smokers determine their future tobacco consumption behaviour as adolescents. Further assumptions make the model applicable to the data from the Czech National Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. Future teenage smoking rates and average consumption are the inputs to the model; consumption growth coefficients for each age category are estimated using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Several scenarios are built to model possible developments, including extreme cases. All our scenarios show that all model outcomes are going to grow until 2028 in a very similar pattern. In particular, the projected number of smokers in 2028 is by 4-8% higher than in 2013, the total daily tobacco consumption and tax revenue by 7-26%. This increase is induced by aging of large birth cohorts.

Keywords: smoking, tobacco, cigarettes, consumption, taxation, forecasting
JEL classification: D12, I12

Accepted: April 23, 2018; Published: February 1, 2019  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Janda, K., & Strobl, M. (2019). Smoking Czechs: Modelling Tobacco Consumption and Taxation. Prague Economic Papers28(1), 3-29. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.685
Download citation

References

  1. Becker, G. S., Murphy, K. M. (1988). A Theory of Rational Addiction. The Journal of Political Economy, 96(4), 675-700, https://doi.org/10.1086/261558 Go to original source...
  2. Cameron, A. C., Trivedi, P. K. (1986). Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1(1), 29-53, https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3950010104 Go to original source...
  3. Carstensen, B. (2007). Age-Period-Cohort Models for the Lexis Diagram. Statistics in Medicine, 26(15), 3018-3045, https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.2764 Go to original source...
  4. Hilbe, J. M. (2011). Negative Binomial Regression. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 9780511973420, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511973420 Go to original source...
  5. Kerr, W. C., Greenfield, T. K., Bond, J., Ye, Y., Rehm, J. (2004). Age, Period and Cohort Influences on Beer, Wine and Spirits Consumption Trends in the US National Alcohol Survey. Addiction, 99(9), 1111-1120, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1360-0443.2004.00820.x Go to original source...
  6. Kralikova, E., Kmetova, A., Zvolska, K., Blaha, M., Bortlicek, Z. (2013). Czech Adolescent Smokers: Unhappy to Smoke but Unable to Quit. The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, 17(6), 842-846. Go to original source...
  7. Kvaček, J. (2011). Poptávka po cigaretách v České republice a výnosnost spotřební daně z cigaret. Master's thesis, IES FSV UK.
  8. Levy, D. T., Ross, H., Kmetova, A., Kralikova, E., Stoklosa, M., Blackman, K., Diab, O. A., Abdelrahim, E. M., Esmail, M., Golding, J. F. et al. (1997). The Czech Republic SimSmoke: The Effect of Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking Attributable Deaths in the Czech Republic. J Prev Med Public Health, (4), 697-707.
  9. Mason, K. O., Mason, W. M., Winsborough, H. H., Poole, W. K. (1973). Some Methodological Issues in Cohort Analysis of Archival Data. American Sociological Review, 38(2), 242-258, https://doi.org/10.2307/2094398 Go to original source...
  10. Mendez, D., Warner, K. E., Courant, P. N. (1998). Has Smoking Cessation Ceased? Expected Trends in the Prevalence of Smoking in the United States. American Journal of Epidemiology, 148(3), 249-258, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009632 Go to original source...
  11. Mori, H., Clason, D. L. et al. (2004). A Cohort Approach for Predicting Future Eating Habits: The Case of At-Home Consumption of Fresh Fish and Meat in an Aging Japanese Society. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, (1), 22-41.
  12. Movsisyan, N. K., Sochor, O., Kralikova, E., Cifkova, R., Ross, H., Lopez-Jimenez, F. (2016, July). Current and Past Smoking Patterns in a Central European Urban Population: a Cross-sectional Study in a High-burden Country. BMC Public Health, 16(1), https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-016-3216-5 Go to original source...
  13. OECD (2014). OECD Factbook 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/factbook-2014-en Go to original source...
  14. Peřinová, P., Feketeová, E., Kemplink, D., Kovalská, P., Chlebušová, K., Nepožitek, J., Ibarburu, V., Králíková, E., Nevšímalová, S., Šonka, K. (2016). Smoking Prevalence and its Clinical Correlations in Patients with Narcolepsy-Cataplexy. Prague Medical Report, 117(2-3), 81-89, https://doi.org/10.14712/23362936.2016.8 Go to original source...
  15. Pertold, F. (2009). Sorting into Secondary Education and Peer Effects in Youth Smoking. CERGE-EI. Working Paper Series No. 399, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1517222 Go to original source...
  16. Powell, L., Tauras, J., Ross, H. (2005, September). The Importance of Peer Effects, Cigarette Prices and Tobacco Control Policies for Youth Smoking Behavior. Journal of Health Economics, 24(5), 950-968, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2005.02.002 Go to original source...
  17. Rentz, J. O., Reynolds, F. D. (1991). Forecasting the Effects of an Aging Population on Product Consumption: An Age-Period-Cohort Framework. Journal of Marketing Research, 28(3), 355-360, https://doi.org/10.2307/3172871 Go to original source...
  18. Ross, H., Chaloupka, F. J. (2003). The Effect of Cigarette Prices on Youth Smoking. Health economics, 12(3), 217-230, https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.709 Go to original source...
  19. Shirane, R., Smith, K., Ross, H., Silver, K. E., Williams, S., Gilmore, A. (2012). Tobacco Industry Influence in the Czech Republic in Times of Major Political Change: Manipulating Tobacco Excise Tax and Tobacco Advertising Policies. PLoS Med, (6), -. Go to original source...
  20. Sovinova, H., Csemy, L. (2016). Užívání tabáku v České republice 2015. Výzkumná zpráva, Státní zdravotní ústav.
  21. Sovinová, H., Csémy, L., Procházka, B., Kottnauerová, S. (2008). Smoking-attributable Mortality in the Czech Republic. Journal of Public Health, 16(1), 37-42, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10389-007-0116-2 Go to original source...
  22. Sovinová, H., Csémy, L., Sadílek, P. (2014). Užívání tabáku v České republice 2013. Státní zdravotní ústav.
  23. Spilková, J., Dzúrová, D., Pikhart, H. (2011). Inequalities in Smoking in the Czech Republic: Societal or Individual Effects? Health & Place, 17(1), 215-221, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2010.10.003 Go to original source...
  24. Tesar, T. (2011). Comparative Analysis of Factors Influencing Childrens Smoking. Bachelor's thesis, IES FSV UK.
  25. Vuong, Q. H. (1989). Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-Nested Hypotheses. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 307-333, https://doi.org/10.2307/191255715010050Frequency0 Go to original source...

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.