Prague Economic Papers, 2003 (vol. 12), issue 1

Original contributions, Original article, Research article

Historical perspectives of growth, integration and policies for catching-up in transition countries

Vladimír Benáček

Prague Economic Papers 2003, 12(1):3-17 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.203  

This paper is aimed at addressing general characteristics of growth and development that concerns all transition countries before their accession to the EU when their convergence to the EU average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is expected. By looking back at the GDP statistics of major industrial countries for the last 90 years, a question is posed why some countries get on a path of a fast growth while some others go from one secular crisis to another. In assessing the policies supporting growth it is concluded that conditions on the company and industry level are more important than national macroeconomic policies.

Restructuring of manufacturing industry in the central and east european countries

Peter Havlik

Prague Economic Papers 2003, 12(1):19-36 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.204  

This paper analyses various aspects of industrial restructuring across all ten Central and East European (CEE) candidate countries for EU membership during the last decade and provides also some comparisons with current EU Member States. The impressive structural adjustments that have taken place in CEE industries since the beginning of transition brought the structure of manufacturing industry in the majority of CEE candidate countries fairly close to the European pattern both in terms of production and employment. Technology-driven industries account for a growing share of exports in nearly all candidate countries, while labour-intensive industries...

The "new economy" and catching-up potential of transition economies

Marcin Piatkowski

Prague Economic Papers 2003, 12(1):37-56 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.205  

The contribution of the "new economy" to economic growth in developing countries has so far been minimal. The "old economy" will for long be the fundamental force behind economic growth in transition economies. Nonetheless, in the longer run the "new economy" offers great potential for faster economic growth in post-socialist economies. Realizing this potential is, however, not automatic. It can be left unharnessed if there is no suitable institutional infrastructure, which would allow for adoption, diffusion, and productive use of information and communication technologies (ICT). The paper introduces a New Economy Indicator (NEI) measuring the level...

Utilities: deregulated or re-regulated?

Jiří Schwarz

Prague Economic Papers 2003, 12(1):57-67 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.206  

This article addresses the restructuration of the utilities sector/industry, a process generally described as deregulation. At the core of deregulation processes, not only in the EU, but also in the US, lies the replacement of old-fashioned forms of state regulation based on ownership control by new forms of regulation based on the operation of an independent regulatory body. In Central and Eastern European countries undergoing economic transition, surviving communist-type behavior, along with half-implemented EU deregulation directives, have led to specifically re-regulated utility markets. The new forms of regulation applied in the process of deregulation...

Forecasting with leading economic indicators - a non-linear approach

Timotej Jagric

Prague Economic Papers 2003, 12(1):68-83 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.207  

Leading economic indicators have a long tradition in forecasting future economic activity. Recent developments, however, suggest that there is scope for adding extensions to the methodology of forecasting major economic fluctuations. In this paper, the author tries to develop a new model, which would outperform the forecast accuracy of classical leading indicators model. The use of artificial neural networks is proposed here. For demonstration a case study for Slovene economy is included. The main finding is that, at the twelve months forecasting horizon, a stable and improved forecast accuracy could be achieved for in- and out-of-sample data.