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The active participation of the central bank in exchange rate management has accelerated the growth of foreign exchange reserve in India. The massive reserve stockpiling has substantially contributed to apprehensions about excess liquidity in the domestic economy. The extent to which these concerns are justified depends on the degree to which the central bank is able to mitigate its effects on monetary aggregates. This study is an attempt to assess the magnitude of the sterilization coefficient by using quarterly data from 1996 to 2019. In order to estimate sterilization and offset coefficients, the study employed the two-stage least squares (2SLS) method under the theoretical framework of simultaneous equation modelling. The findings show that the reserve accumulation through central bank interventions puts pressure on money supply. However, the RBI sterilization policy was effective as the central bank was able to sterilize 93 percent of its interventions, while the offset coefficient was 72 percent during the period of study. The low value of the offset coefficient compared to the sterilization coefficient indicates a high degree of monetary policy independence in neutralizing the central bank's purchase interventions. Based on the findings, it can be recommended that policymakers should consider the sustainability of interventions and sterilization operations as the dual policy objectives of independent exchange rate management and monetary policy cannot be achieved in the presence of a high interest rate in an inflation-targeting regime.

Foreign banks have played a major role in Central and Eastern European economic landscape over the last decades. They have spurred banking intermediation and fuelled economic growth for years. However, the global financial crisis unveiled the other side of the coin. This article analyses foreign banks' lending behaviour in Central and Eastern Europe over the period from 2000 to 2016. It aims to investigate the nexus between bank loan growth, cross-border bank claims and the cycle period. Moreover, it captures the impact of the financial cycle on foreign banks' credit behaviour and highlights whether foreign bank ownership is influenced by host- and home-country effects. Our findings reveal the strong nexus between foreign banks' loan growth and cross-border bank claims. Also, we emphasize the pro-cyclicality of foreign banks' loan growth and cross-border bank claims. Furthermore, we see clear differences related to foreign banks' lending behaviour during normal and turbulent times, triggered by host- and home-country effects. These results raise policy challenges regarding the right bank ownership balance and the use of prudential regulation.

We present a macro stress-testing model for banks' market and funding liquidity risks with a survival period of one year. The model follows the main principles of the Basel standards LCR and NSFR. Besides, the model takes into account the impact of both bank-specific and market-wide scenarios and includes second- round effects of shocks due to banks' feedback reactions. The presented methodology is then applied to a sample of Czech banks. This allows us to monitor the sensitivity of their liquidity position to the combination of shocks under consideration.

The size of the shadow banking sector (SBS) has more than doubled in the Czech Republic over the last decade. This places a potential burden on policy makers. On the one hand, the SBS complements regular banking by expanding access to credit and investments, enabling better risk sharing and maturity transformation, and sup-porting market liquidity. On the other hand, SBS activities can put the stability of the financial system at risk and amplify its procyclicality by exacerbating the build-up of leverage and asset price bubbles. We implement a FAVAR model of the Czech economy to determine the impact of macroeconomic factors on the SBS. We find that the SBS: (i) is sensitive to changes in market interest rates and term spread; (ii) exhibits great procyclicality; (iii) can act as a complement to regular banking and satisfy some additional demand for credit. We also define some potential risks of continued growth of the SBS, linked to our empirical evidence.

This paper investigates how lender-borrower relationships affect credit cost for small and medium sized companies (SMEs). We use data within the period 2006–2015 for the Polish SME sector and deploy panel regression models to analyse how the number and length of banking relationships influence the financial costs of a random sample of Polish SMEs. We document that the price of capital decreases as relationships progress. Outcomes of the research are thus inconsistent with the “hold-up” hypothesis. Moreover, we find evidence that supports the view that multiple banking relationships generate more financial benefits for companies than a relationship with one lender.

We examine central banks' involvement in inflation forecast targeting by means of an index-based analysis and ordered logistic regression. The research encompasses the Bank of England, the Czech National Bank, the National Bank of Poland and the Sveriges Riksbank. They produce conditional or unconditional macroeconomic forecasts. Hence, two paths have been used to examine them. We examine whether the four central banks follow their forecasts to some extent. We have found that the CNB and SR are highly consistent in terms of compatibility of their decisions with the forecasts, timing of decisions, and communication by means of forecasts. The NBP follows its forecast much less consistently, while the BoE ignores it altogether. As some of the results for the BoE and NBP are unambiguous, we remain cautious while interpreting them. This paper contributes to the literature on the empirical evaluation of inflation forecast targeting.

This paper empirically assesses the financial performance of Czech credit unions in relation to other European cooperative banks in terms of their profitability and stability. We created a unique dataset of 283 cooperative banks from 15 European countries in the period 2006-2013. Using the system GMM and alternative panel data methods, we reveal worse performance of Czech credit unions in terms of both profitability and stability compared to their European peers. We also argue that big credit unions in the Czech Republic have assumed a non-sustainable business model depending on excessive risk taking while enjoying implicit subsidy via deposit insurance. In conclusion, we argue that under recent capital management policies, big Czech credit unions will likely face serious financial problems in coming years.

The question on the inflation expectations management is one of the most important ones from the central bank's point of view. The inflation forecast can be a helpful tool of managing expectations. If it actually is, the interdependences of the inflation forecast and expectations can be observed. The existence of such interdependences opens the field for determining the preconditions that might support expectations formation. The hypothesis assumes that associations of inflation forecasts and inflation expectations depend on the central bank's credibility and consistency in inflation forecast targeting. The research covers the Czech National Bank, the National Bank of Hungary, the National Bank of Poland and Sveriges Riksbank. The research combines qualitative and quantitative methods. The research uses survey-based expectations quantified with probabilistic method. The main finding is that the relatively high level of credibility and consistency in inflation forecast targeting is not sufficient to achieve strong interdependences of inflation forecast and expectations.

The paper deals with the phenomenon of foreign bank ownership, which is prevalent in the countries of Central, Eastern and South Eastern European region as well as in New Zealand. Using a sample of 17 countries and filtering out more than 140 domestically operating foreign-owned banks, we examine the determinants of their performance in relation to host country conditions over the period of seven years between 2005 and 2011. Based on our knowledge, we use the largest data set in this respect compared to other researchers. Using system GMM and fixed effects models, we reveal that macroeconomic fundamentals of the host country affect the foreign-owned banks' performance but do not suffice in explaining it fully. This result points out that sound banks with higher operational efficiency operating in growing economies with low inflation rate tend to perform better than their peers.

The paper emphasizes that any approach to defining technical efficiency in banking is just a different outlook on manifold goals and functions that commercial banks pursue. Three commonly applied approaches, i.e. the service-oriented approach, the intermediation approach and the profitoriented approach, are not in conflict but are complementary in providing information on how commercial banks perform in financial intermediation, provision of banking services and profit seeking. In addition to the methodological contribution of the paper, it investigates the efficiency of the Slovak banking industry over the years 2000-2011 so as to find whether employment of a specific approach changes the view on efficiency of individual commercial banks. To this end, the non-parametric method of evaluation is employed based on the slack-based measure model of data envelopment analysis. The results suggest that general impressions of the efficiency status of individual banks as obtained within the three approaches are similar in most cases.

This paper empirically examines the possible causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Serbia. In this regard, the focus is on the development of financial intermediation by banks, considering the fact that the banking sector plays an important role in Serbian financial system. The empirical research is based on quarterly data for the period Q1 2004-Q4 2011 by using Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Our empirical findings suggest that process of economic growth contributes to process of financial deepening. On the other hand, the results indicate that there is a significant unidirectional causality that runs from both private enterprise credit to GDP and household credit to GDP to economic growth. Bidirectional causal relation is confirmed only between the share of bank credit to nonfinancial private sector in total domestic credit and economic growth rate.

This paper examines the role of financial development in promoting innovation-related activity using panel data for seven East Asian countries for the period from 1998-2009. On overall financial development, we find that, financial sector size and the overall activity of banks and stock market exert positive influences on patent applications. In particular, our results show that all measures of banking development are positively and significantly related to the number of patent applications after controlling for variables known to affect innovative activities. Interestingly, we find no evidence that variation in patent applications is affected by a country's stock market development. The findings suggest that banking sector plays important roles in supporting innovation activity in East Asian countries.

The global banking system proved significantly vulnerable to systemic risk during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. In this paper, we construct an agent-based network model of systemic risk to a banking system, and use it for stress-testing of several different regulatory measures. First, our simulations confirm that sufficient capital buffers in individual banks are crucial for protecting the stability of the whole system. Second, we show that the regulatory measures installed as preventive measures to ensure that the banks possess sufficient capital buffers have almost no positive effects on stability when the system is collapsing. Finally, we highlight various data deficiencies which prevent the researchers and regulators from fully understanding the complete range of systemic risk and make it difficult to devise effective and targeted regulatory measures at this time.

The origins, growth and importance of the 2007-2009 American and European credit crisis are analysed. The causes lie in the speculative bubbles, the changed attitudes to domestic property, the growth of securitisation and derivatives trading, the changing roles of financial institutions, poor policy choices and inadequate regulation. The Visegrad states are being affected by declining export markets that have triggered domestic recessions, and growing credit problems. The recession is especially penalising economies they have followed risky policies. The course of the recession is currently impossible to predict. But it is possible for these states to draw on the regulatory lessons inflicted on others, and to respond to the challenge of co-regulating the international banks that dominate their domestic markets, and which while too large to fail, are also too large to rescue unaided.

This paper discusses the electoral implications of psychological motivation on voting functions. We tested a claim of the Weber-Fechner law as applied to electoral behaviour - specifically, that an expanded public sector leads politicians to make more significant, opportunistic distortions of public expenditures than the distortions observed when the public sector is diminished. We employed a system of simultaneous equations to test this hypothesis for cases observed in more than sixty democracies since 1960. We gave a special focus to the cases of Central and Eastern European countries. Our results confirm the main implications of the Weber-Fechner law. Years in incumbency, running for re-election, higher unemployment and higher inflation rates tend to generate negative moods, feelings and affects in the electorate; thus, these factors tend to approximate the vote share of the most voted party to the remaining vote share of the challenger political forces.

Channels through which monetary policy affects aggregate demand can be divided into three groups: traditional interest rate channel, other asset price channels and credit channel composed of balance sheet channel (named also broad credit channel), only recently separated bank capital channel and bank lending channel. Banks face troubles in keeping their present or acquiring new financial sources, when central bank tightens its monetary policy. Banks characterized by differences in size, capitalization, liquidity and ownership face different levels of informational asymmetry and are therefore differently affected by changes in monetary policy. If larger, better capitalized, more liquid, state owned and/or domestically owned banks respond weaker to changes in monetary policy it is possible to argue that bank lending channel is effective. This hypothesis is tested on a panel of annual data for individual Slovenian banks in the period between 1993 and 2007 using general method of moments. Results largely confirm the existence of the bank lending channel in Slovenia.

The paper deals with the relationship between monetary policy and asset prices. Besides surveying the general discussion, it attempts to extend it to recent developments in the New Member States of the EU (NMS), namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia (the EU4). After a brief description of the current macroeconomic situation in the NMS, the appropriate reaction of monetary policy to asset price bubbles is analysed and the main pros and cons associated with this reaction are summarized. Afterwards, the risks of asset market bubbles in the EU4 countries are evaluated. Since the capital markets are still underdeveloped and the real estate price boom seems to be a natural reaction to the initial undervaluation, the risks are viewed as rather small. The conclusion is thus that it is crucial for central banks in mature economies as well as in the NMS to conduct their monetary policies as well as their supervisory and regulatory roles in a way that does not promote the build-up of asset market bubbles. In exceptional times, central banks of small open economies must be ready to use monetary policy steps as a kind of insurance against the adverse effects of potential asset market bubbles.

This article presents a meta-regression analysis of 32 studies on frontier efficiency measurement in banking, focusing on the sensitivity of the reported estimates to the methodological design. Our findings suggest that study design is crucial for the resulting scores. The differences between the scores estimated using parametric and non-parametric approaches arise when the Fourierflexible functional form is used since this functional form yields lower scores. Generally, the higher the number of observations, the higher is the average estimated efficiency. The removal of scale effects using equity capital increases the profit efficiency but it is insignificant for other scores. The efficiency analysis should distinguish the commercial banking from other bank types because the former tends to deliver lower efficiency scores.

In this article we argue that the balance sheet of a central bank contains valuable information for the quality of a currency. As an illustration we analyze the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve System (FED) during the subprime crisis between June 2007 and December 2008. Until September 2008 the balance sheet of the FED did not expand strongly. However, the structure of the FED assets varied pronouncedly. Starting in September 2008 the balance sheet expanded dramatically. The calculation of certain balance sheet ratios supports the assessment of an important decrease of the quality of the currency. Our analysis shows that the analysis of central bank balance sheet policies should not rely solely on quantitative issues but rather include qualitative issues.

This paper mainly discusses the effects of media capture on local government accountability in undemocratic countries. Firstly, we construct the models with and without media capture from the perspective of incentive theory. Secondly, we conduct a comparative analysis between the outcomes with and without media capture. The analysis shows that no media capture decreases the local official's equilibrium efficiency wage under whatever conditions, and at the same time makes the central government's constraint to incentivize the local official to exert effort easier to be satisfied under some conditions, while harder to be satisfied under other conditions.

This paper introduces a model for stress testing of probability of default of individuals. The model rests on assumption that the individual defaults if his savings fall below zero. The probability of default is then described as a function of several macroeconomic indicators, such as wages, unemployment and interest rates. Stress testing is carried out by applying exogenous stress scenarios for development of these indicators. The model implies that sensitivity of probability of default to the stress is mainly driven by installment to income ratio and for mortgages also by loan maturity. Hence installment to income ratio is suggested as the appropriate tool to manage credit risk of retail portfolios.

The results of stress tests of the Czech banking sector based on credit risk and credit growth models, applied to the household and corporate sector are presented in the paper. The use of these newly developed models enables the stress tests to be linked to the CNB's official quarterly macroeconomic forecast. In addition, the article updates the stress scenarios, including simple sensitivity analyses of credit risk for individual sectors. Based on the analysis, an answer is sought to the question of whether the observed credit growth to corporate sector and households poses any threat to the stability of the banking sector. The analyses conclude that the banking sector as a whole seems to be resilient to the macroeconomic shocks under consideration.

This paper assesses whether the legal independence granted to the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) by the latest legislation promulgated in 2005 is factual. The author followed Fry's methodology, which assumes that the level of independence of the central bank is determined by fiscal attributes. In an attempt to develop Fry's method, there was used a simple criterion to assess the central bank's independence, namely, that the central bank is actually independent if it can fulfill its money supply target without squeezing the private sector. Applying this criterion to the case of the CBE, we find that the legal independence granted to the CBE by the latest legislation is not factual.

This article sets out to describe and discuss the methodology of selected financial soundness and financial stability indicators, including the attempts to construct an aggregate financial stability indicator. The first part is devoted to discussion of Financial Stability Indicators by the International Monetary Fund and presents also the values of the IMF's core Financial Soundness Indicators for the Czech Republic and other selected countries, using the data from the 2005 pilot study. This part partly covers also other existing approaches to definition and collection of partial financial soundness indicators, such as the indicators regularly assessed by the European Central Bank. In the second part, the article reviews existing approaches to construct an aggregate financial stability indicator. These include alternative approaches using balance sheet and profit and loss data, as well as financial market and regulatory agencies' data. The last part constructs a preliminary composite indicator for the stability of the Czech banking system and discusses its development over time.

The authors are attempting to draw together existing literature on the governance of GVCs; research on host country ""spillovers"" as a consequence of MNE activity and the broader cluster and innovation literature. While cluster research had done important work in identifying and operationalizing the necessary conditions for cluster formation, it had relatively ignored the global-local linkage brought by the presence of MNEs. The ""spillover"" literature has identified in theory numerous benefits of MNE presence in host countries. There was relatively little empirical work done in CEE to discover if these benefits actually exist. Neither literature had focused on how MNEs govern their GVCs. Thus bringing these sources together presents an important opportunity for international business. The authors find that in the Slovak case the industrial clusters among the firms surveyed were not much functional. On a strategic level, there appears to be little evidence of cooperation in areas of marketing, export promotion or investment. This is especially of concern in sectors such as automotive where cooperative strategies among suppliers could offer significant benefits.

Financial sector is prone to cyclical movements and procyclicality of the financial system may endanger financial stability, which depends on asset prices and loan losses due to the fact that the deterioration of bank assets through non-performing loans is characteristics of banking distress. This was the case during Japan's lost decade and the Nordic banking crises. Even the classic banking panics of the Great Depression are being revised in the light of new evidence on the fundamental deterioration of bank assets. Much empirical evidence supports the view that balance sheet variables, such as net worth affect investment and produce business cycle dynamics. In an upswing, the greater availability of credit leads to higher asset prices, which then serve as collateral for more borrowing. Relatively unstable development of share prices on the capital market increases equity risk. This paper is based on the presumption that the stability of macro economic environment, less pronounced cyclical movements and insignificant procyclicality between GDP and equity (used as collaterals for credit insurance) lower equity risk. There was proved no significant procyclicality between collaterals and GDP according to low stock market capitalization. And due to the relation that equity risk (as a part of market risk) is determined by unstable development of shares prices, I accepted the hypothesis of low equity risk in the analysed transition economies on the basis of tested procyclicality.

This paper tries to assess the conditions under which the CNB operates. Using a basic framework suggested by Mishkin (2000), the aim is to find out whether the central bank is able to conduct high-quality monetary policy. First, general principles that central banks should follow to succeed in their pursuit of monetary goals are theoretically introduced. Then, these theoretical principles are looked at in the Czech context. Issues of the strictness and suitability of concrete monetary policy of the CNB will not be dealt with, rather institutional circumstances that potentially allow successful policy are at the centre of this paper. It is concluded that the CNB is functioning in a moderately good environment, but still much room for improvement does exist.

The article presents an empirically tested assessment of the Bank of Slovenia (BS), national central bank, adjustment policy to surges in capital flows during the last decade. Exchange rate appreciation, undeveloped banking sector, immoderate money market oscillation, unstable economic trends (all phenomena that can also be found in other transition countries) are just some of the detrimental effects that can be provoked by surges in capital flows if the national economy is faced with some fundamental sectoral deficiencies. Empirical results indicated that BS quite successfully mitigated listed effects of excessive foreign currency inflows during the last decade. With the suitable combination of direct and indirect adjustment methods, BS succeeded in preventing, still vulnerable Slovenian economy from a major form of financial crisis and stronger nominal tolar appreciation (this was not the case in some other countries like Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Croatia) although there was some real appreciation.

Banks played a central and, at times, controversial, role in the post-1989 transformation of the Czech economy. This article is trying to assess that role by setting it in a historical and comparative context. Economic historians have specified two broad models of banking behaviour, although the differences can be exaggerated. Transition economies show some common characteristics, but past history gave Czech banks a particularly important role and policy makers pursued a conception under which they would finance rapid economic transformation, partly following a model from the past. With varying degrees of willingness, established banks took on this role, undermining their own financial solidity. As the Czech road ran into difficulties, so a different conception of banks' development was adopted, closer to policies more familiar across Central and Eastern Europe.

This paper deals with the implementation of the inflation targeting regime in Poland. The study contributes to the discussion about opportunities and constraints of inflation targeting in the more advanced transitive economies. This analysis of monetary policy issues is based on an econometric investigation of the Polish inflation time series and on the estimation of the links between monetary policy instruments and inflation. In comparison with the Czech Republic, the Polish inflation targeting strategy faces more obstacles and limitations that are caused by the structural characteristics of Polish inflation and the country's less advanced money market.