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The paper explores the interconnections between foreign capital flows and the exchange rate regime switching in developing countries. We formulate the exchange rate regime switching as annual time series of binary/ordered variables employing de facto classification of exchange rate arrangements and regress them on the financial account capital flows for a panel of 28 developing countries which experienced change in their exchange rate regime during the period 2000-2016. Employing probit and logit regression, we discover the FDI, portfolio flows and changes in reserve assets to precede and/or coincide with switching. Specifically, accumulation of foreign reserves increases the probability of switching from floating to peg, while their spending coincides with exits from pegged regimes; at the same time, outflows of FDI and portfolio investments tend to accompany exchange rate regime liberalization, although the evidence on that is less consistent.

Using developing countries in Europe for context, this study examines the complex relationship between financial crises and financial integration. We use panel data comprising 37 countries in Europe, including Iceland, Belarus, Ukraine, Turkey, and Russia from 2000-2019 and the general method of moments. Our findings show that there is a positive relationship between financial integration and development and economic growth. In addition, the results suggest that a higher degree of financial integration is not necessarily increasing financial fragility during a financial crisis. Therefore, the results show that it is a self-defeating policy for developing countries to apply a strategy of financial protectionism over a financial crisis.

This study examines the role of firm-specific, macroeconomic, banking and financial environment factors in determining whether they were able to access external finance during the global financial crisis. Heckman's selection approach is used to model the demand and supply of credit in the euro area during and after the financial crisis period. We conclude that since 2011, when the rejection probabilities for external credit applications peaked, the chances of obtaining credit have improved. However, young and small firms are still more likely to have their credit applications rejected. A decrease in government support such as guarantees increases the probability of rejec-tion, as does a reduction in firms' own capital and a worsening credit history. Among the bank-specific factors, an increase in banks' equity capitalization reduces the rejection probability, while an increase in the cost of borrowed funds and a decrease in the competition levels raise the rejection probability. The legal structure to deal with insolvency disputes and the development of the credit information market have a significant bearing on credit availability, as we find that an increase in the time to resolve insolvencies and a reduction in adverse selection problems by credit information sharing increase the credit rejection probabilities.

This paper aims to study the dynamic relationship between dependent variables of trade credit (net trade credit to total assets and net trade credit to sales), and six independent variables (profit margin, liquidity ratio, and the dummies collection, credit, size, and crisis) using panel vector autoregression during the period 2004-2013 considering data from eight European countries. The results indicate that net trade credit is negatively influenced by crises, forcing firms to use it less due to survival effects but imposing higher trade restrictions. Notwithstanding, net trade credit to sales is positively influenced by the liquidity ratio and profit margin, and vice-versa, but has a negative relationship with credit and collection dummies, imposing credit shortenings and forcing reliance on short-term credit. For the overall period, firms seem to have sold more than having bought on credit due to tightening trade credit, an effect of the financial crisis.

This paper examines the effects of public debt on the growth rate, investment and domestic credit provided to private sector using the dynamic panel threshold regression method for a large number of developing countries, namely 53 (48) economies for growth and invest-ment (credit) regressions. Our results suggest that public debt does not have a significant impact on the economic growth rate. Despite a strong negative effect of public debt on the total investment, our results do not support the existence of a (strong) threshold effect of public debt on total (private) investment. On the other hand, we present evidence for a threshold effect of public debt on public investment and credit. More precisely, public debt leads to a reduction in public investment and credit when the public debt exceeds the estimated threshold levels. Since public debt matters for investment and credit, it is important to ensure fiscal discipline and prudence in the long term.

The manufacturing sector has been regarded as a key factor in the history of economic devel-opment and growth. However, economic fluctuations affect manufacturing seriously. This study examines the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on Turkish manufacturing sector profit-ability. This paper uses micro-econometric difference in differences methods in conjunction with the macroeconomic forecasting method to investigate how profit levels in the Turkish manufacturing industry are affected by the crisis. The results indicate that the profit levels changed significantly after the crisis with a one-year lag and actual profits exceeded the estimated profits in the later years. Economic impacts of crises have long been investigated; however, this paper differs from the literature in using a new analytical framework for the issue. The suggested method can be expanded to other areas, which can spark new future studies.

This paper examines the impact of financial market development, financial crises and deposit insurance on bank risk based on macro data of 86 countries during the period 1998-2014. The results show that banking sector development and stock market development have opposing effects on bank risk measured as bank non-performing loan ratio. The introduction of an explicit deposit insurance system plays a significant role in reducing banks’ risk. However, the bank market development after the introduction of this system also increases banks’ risk. The impact of financial market development and deposit insurance system on banks’ risk was more significant before the 2008 financial crisis. It is found that there is a nonlinear relationship between financial market development, deposit insurance, financial crises and banks’ risk. The stock market development has an asymmetric effect on banks’ risk.

This analysis tries to address the problem of the insufficiency of premium rates used by export credit agencies. This paper aims to answer why and how states should run agencies that may create losses. We see that each supported exporter brings some other benefits to the public budget, and we try to propose how it could be measured. This paper therefore focuses on benefits and costs of the domestic economy. This analysis aims to develop a model that calculates the impacts of each supported export project. The results must be comparable between projects so that projects can be ranked and decisions made on which ones should receive support under current capacity restraints. The current state of knowledge has been analysed, and little attention has been paid to this microeconomic area of export support. The model structure also helps us understand why governments tend to maintain export credit agencies even though they may be temporarily loss-making.

This article aims to analyse the issue of a lack of rules on the insurance cover of interest from an OECD perspective during the period 2010-2020. Export credit agencies (ECAs) support export and apply minimum premium rates (MPRs) to the principal amount only, while the insurance agreement covers also the interest amount. This area can be described as a grey zone, because ECAs can decide themselves what cover they provide for a limited price. This paper explains which parts of a lending rate should be covered under credit insurance and provides theoretical and empirical analysis of the maximum extent of interest cover. The extent of such cover is closely related to the return on ECAs' investments. An excessive amount of interest cover creates room for market failures such as moral hazard or adverse selection, which have a negative impact on the domestic economy. The right amount of interest cover, on the other hand, guarantees long-term sustainability and a level playing field among ECAs, as the OECD requires.

This paper focuses on national support for export and examines whether, following the OECD arrangement, long-term financial sustainability is assured without sustained fiscal help. Rules on permitted state support in this area are stated by the OECD Consensus, which is meant to guarantee a level playing field for all exporters, to encourage competition among exporters based on the quality and prices of goods, and at the same time, not distort the free market. The main objective is that every export credit agency (ECA) should be self-sustainable with no need for state subsidies. However, this may not be achieved. This research proves inadequacy of minimum premium rates (MPR) due to insured interest. This issue arises mainly from the application of MPRs to the principal value of the insured loan with no correspondence to the insured interest amount. As many ECAs are publicly owned, all systematic losses must be covered by state budgets, which is against OECD agreements and is not allowed.

 The aim of this study is to provide an overview of the principles of IFRS 9 implementation and to analyse its impact on the Czech banking sector. Unlike the previous IAS 39 standard, valid until the end of 2017, the new accounting rules require banks to estimate forward-looking expected credit losses (ECL) while considering relevant exposure level information as well as available macroeconomic predictions. Due to the increased complexity of the ECL models and changing macroeconomic expectations, we hypothesize that the new standard leads to increased volatility of loan loss allowances. This hypothesis is empirically tested and more or less confirmed by an analysis of the quarterly flows of allowances for a sample of large Czech banks from the years 2016-2017 under IAS 39 and from 2018-2019 under IFRS 9.

Foreign banks have played a major role in Central and Eastern European economic landscape over the last decades. They have spurred banking intermediation and fuelled economic growth for years. However, the global financial crisis unveiled the other side of the coin. This article analyses foreign banks' lending behaviour in Central and Eastern Europe over the period from 2000 to 2016. It aims to investigate the nexus between bank loan growth, cross-border bank claims and the cycle period. Moreover, it captures the impact of the financial cycle on foreign banks' credit behaviour and highlights whether foreign bank ownership is influenced by host- and home-country effects. Our findings reveal the strong nexus between foreign banks' loan growth and cross-border bank claims. Also, we emphasize the pro-cyclicality of foreign banks' loan growth and cross-border bank claims. Furthermore, we see clear differences related to foreign banks' lending behaviour during normal and turbulent times, triggered by host- and home-country effects. These results raise policy challenges regarding the right bank ownership balance and the use of prudential regulation.

The size of the shadow banking sector (SBS) has more than doubled in the Czech Republic over the last decade. This places a potential burden on policy makers. On the one hand, the SBS complements regular banking by expanding access to credit and investments, enabling better risk sharing and maturity transformation, and sup-porting market liquidity. On the other hand, SBS activities can put the stability of the financial system at risk and amplify its procyclicality by exacerbating the build-up of leverage and asset price bubbles. We implement a FAVAR model of the Czech economy to determine the impact of macroeconomic factors on the SBS. We find that the SBS: (i) is sensitive to changes in market interest rates and term spread; (ii) exhibits great procyclicality; (iii) can act as a complement to regular banking and satisfy some additional demand for credit. We also define some potential risks of continued growth of the SBS, linked to our empirical evidence.

The influence of foreign banks on a host country's lending depends on several factors, including the policy of the parent bank, the strategy of entry, economic cycles in the home country and abroad, growth prospects, the indebtedness of commitments and the capital adequacy of the parent bank. During the most recent economic crisis, the credit supply of foreign banks in the 10 new European Union (EU) Member States has not remained stable in the crisis. More specifically, we find evidence that foreign banks have cut the credit supply slightly in the new EU Member States.

This paper examines the role of structural change in the asymmetric adjustment of retail energy prices following changes in crude oil costs. The paper also examines the pattern of adjustment in retail energy prices when exchange rate is accounted for as part of the marginal cost of importing crude oil in European countries with high oil import dependency ratio. The paper shows that the results of Greenwood-Nimmo and Shin (2013) no longer hold when the structural change in the relationship between retail energy prices and crude oil costs is taken into the consideration. The paper also cautions that studies like Kristoufek and Lunackova (2014) that failed to account for exchange rate as part of the marginal cost of importing oil for countries with high oil import dependency ratio may be misleading. In fact, the results of this paper further indicate that once the exchange rate effect is taken into consideration, the possibility of rent-seeking behaviour in the gasoline markets of Italy and Spain disappears; while the rockets and feathers effect observed in most of the ex-tax gasoline, diesel, domestic heating oil and industrial fuel oil markets vanishes.

Common exposure to macroeconomic risk factors across financial institutions is a source of a systemic risk that influences quality of banks´ loan portfolios. This paper focuses on the growing literature on credit risk determinants. The aim of the paper is to provide more general information on effects of macroeconomic drivers with the use of quantitative meta-analytic techniques. We consider five of the most common macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans ratio. The meta-regression results suggest that there are some significant differences among studies, which could be identified. For instance, data specification, estimation method, number of countries and observations included in the model play a significant role. In some cases, e.g. inflation and exchange rate, the size of the effects presented in journals with impact factor are significantly different from other types of studies included in the analysis. The sub-sample analysis mostly confirms meta-regressions results.

This paper investigates the short and long-run relationship between credit risk and two bank profitability indicators ROA and ROE in Central and Eastern European countries during the period from 2000 to 2010. Results from previous research mostly confirm the negative relationship between profitability and credit risk by considering the current or one year lagged value of profitability. Certain crisis indicates that more profitable banks before the crisis became more risky during the time of crisis. These results motivate us to upgrade the model of credit risk by including earlier values of profitability. Results indicate that two or three years are necessary for growth of profitability to increase credit risk. However, the long-run relationship between foreign banks' profitability and credit risk is positive, for both indicators. For the domestic bank, the long-run effect of ROA on credit risk is positive, while for ROE this relationship is negative.

This paper empirically assesses the financial performance of Czech credit unions in relation to other European cooperative banks in terms of their profitability and stability. We created a unique dataset of 283 cooperative banks from 15 European countries in the period 2006-2013. Using the system GMM and alternative panel data methods, we reveal worse performance of Czech credit unions in terms of both profitability and stability compared to their European peers. We also argue that big credit unions in the Czech Republic have assumed a non-sustainable business model depending on excessive risk taking while enjoying implicit subsidy via deposit insurance. In conclusion, we argue that under recent capital management policies, big Czech credit unions will likely face serious financial problems in coming years.

In this paper the authors examine the determinants of NPL ratio using a cross-county analysis from the sample of 25 emerging countries. Using the panel data approach, determinants of NPL are analysed for the period from 2000 to 2011. The main aim of this paper is to draw a relevant econometric model, to demonstrate the impact of independent variables on the dependent variable by using static and dynamic model estimation techniques. The results show that NPLs rate can be mainly explained by crucial macroeconomic factors, such as the GDP and inflation rate, and bank-specific factors, such as ROA, CAP and lagged NPLs rate.

This article investigates the employment development in Czech-based firms in German ownership in the years around the Great Recession of 2008/2009. The intense involvement of German firms in the economy of the neighbouring country via foreign direct investment (FDI) raises a question whether under the conditions of a historically deep global downturn, the Czech employees in multinational companies were confronted with an increased volatility of their jobs. Using a unique firm-level dataset, we contrast the affiliates of German investors with purely Czech-owned enterprises. Our findings indicate that in the years before the crisis, firms with German capital exhibited a noticeably more positive employment development. The results from the year 2008 onwards give reason to the conclusion that the German-owned firms played a stabilizing role for the Czech labour market during the recession.

The paper examines determinants of sovereign bond spreads (in relation to Germany) of the peripheral euro area countries in the period 2007Q3-2015Q3. The study indicates that the introduction of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs) by the ECB in the third quarter of 2012 led to a change in the sensitivity of the spreads to the developments of certain macroeconomic fundamentals of these economies. In particular, the ratio of public debt to GDP, which significantly and strongly determined the spreads in the period 2007Q3-2012Q2, proved to be insignificant in the period 2012Q3-2015Q3. In addition, the counterfactual analysis carried out shows that the spreads in the analysed countries would have been much higher if the ECB had not decided to introduce this programme.

This paper analyses temporary work and job satisfaction among salaried workers during the Spanish economic crisis of 2008. Using data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE) 2013 Economically Active Population Survey (EAPS), we find that temporary workers lost their job more than others during this period. However, salaried workers have higher average levels of satisfaction in 2007-2010, possibly due to the lower requirements of workers. We find a positive relationship between the unlikeliness of keeping a job and low job satisfaction levels in data from the Survey of Quality of Life at Work (2010) through a correspondence analysis. A linear model with a level of job satisfaction as a dependent variable shows negative coefficients for a level of job satisfaction if the probability of keeping the job is somewhat unlikely or very unlikely. Finally, an ordinal probit regression finds that the estimated likelihood to reach high job satisfaction is lower in temporary workers.

John Taylor (2009) argues that if the Federal Reserve had followed his famous monetary-policy rule, the severe recession that resulted from the real estate bubble could have been avoided. While one may agree with Taylor's empirical analysis and accept his demonstration that his proposed rule would lead to a more stable economic environment, it is unclear whether central banks are capable of avoiding bubbles by simply following the Taylor rule. One can construct various Taylor rules from the data. Some of those rules model what the Federal Reserve actually did. Following the specific type of Taylor rule recommended by John Taylor would in fact amount to a better monetary policy, but only because it calls for setting interest rates higher. In the second section, we introduce Taylor rules. In the third section, we apply these rules to monetary policy since 2001. The fourth section situates the Taylor rule in the Wicksellian framework of interest rates and macroeconomic stability. In the fifth section, we discuss the effects of policy rules on macroeconomic stability.

Electricity forward contracts can normally be traded in two ways in the Czech Republic: OTC forwards, which means bilaterally or bilaterally through a broker, and futures through the Power Exchange Central Europe. Each way has its own economic pros and cons. As the most crucial point, a counterparty risk and costs of funding are usually mentioned. Contracts traded on the power exchange bear less or no credit risk, as every deal is paired via central counterparty. On the other hand, the power exchange requires a margin deposit and daily profit and loss settlement which might increase funding costs. The fact that the counterparty risk is lower for exchange contracts with higher funding costs is well-known, but rarely quantified. We use the so-called Credit Value Adjustment concept in order to quantify the market value of the credit risk. We compare this value with potential funding costs. The aim of this paper is to compare both the OTC and exchange ways of trading using risk-adjusted economic characteristics.

The paper highlights the results of the survey of potential retail customers. The survey emphasizes the relationship between their responses to the chosen marketing pricing strategies and the perception of the introduction of the euro and the crisis. The multi-dimensional techniques were used to implement input data concerning perceptions of the euro introduction and the crisis in order to create a segmentation of respondents dividing them into: optimists, pessimists, crisispessimists, euro-pessimists, profiteers. It was subsequently proven that the responses of the members of these segments to the chosen pricing strategies EDLP (Every Day Low Pricing), Hi-Lo (High Low Pricing) and PMG (Price Matching Guarantees) differ significantly. Furthermore, the relation between the found segmentation and the subjective perception and assignment to the social group from the point of financial security is shown. Moreover, further segmentation of respondents according to their subjective anxiety about their future was carried out. Finally, the emphasis is put on the relation between the perception of the euro introduction in the country during the current influence of the world economic crisis on potential retail customers in the East Slovak Region and their subjective anxiety about their future.

The purpose of the paper is to analyse the current crisis of the eurozone. The irst part explains why the eurozone is not an optimum currency area. The second part points out that euro is an intensiier of the business cycle. The third part examines the Greek crisis. The fourth part explains the inner tensions in the eurozone. The ifth part asks whether euro is suitable for the countries of Central and East Europe. The sixth part examines the debt crisis within the eurozone.

Recent financial crisis has brought to attention the issues of interactions between financial markets and real economy. This paper presents an analysis of the possible explicit effects of various measures of financial markets' risk on real economy based on impulse - response functions within structural vector autoregressive models. As discussed in the paper the riskiness of financial markets is closely related to the more traditional mechanisms based on financial accelerator approach, however, although the issue of financial risk is closely tied with the financial accelerator model, broader effects outside this model may be considered as well. The analysis is carried out for the Czech Republic. The estimates of the responses in the impulse-response analyses typically correspond with the hypothesized effects of the financial risk factors on the real variables; also the interrelations between some of the financial risk factors are obvious. We conclude that increased financial risk seems to be an amplifying element rather than the key driver in the interactions between financial and real economy.

The paper attempts to analyse the effects of the cumulated public sector debt (in this relation essentially government debt and family debt), primarily on the development of the population's standard of living. In this regard, the paper quantifies the impact of debt on the real standard of living - whether we define it merely as the ability to consume, or broadly as the sum of multiple criteria including, for instance, the quality of the environment. This quantification uses data from the economy of the Czech Republic; however, this method can be in principle used for other national economies, but must be adjusted to reflect the specific features of their development. Using the analysis of time series, the paper investigates some other aspects of the debt situation of families in the Czech Republic, especially the development of the relationship between families' savings and debt, and finds that debt prevails over savings in the long run. Several conclusions for the future can be derived from these results. These conclusions can be summarized in a statement that future political representations will have to continuously bridge the gap between the need to reduce the standard of living of large groups of the population on the one hand, and the need to make sure that the necessary reforms are politically viable on the other hand.

This paper addresses the question of convergence in real wages across Romanian counties, while putting a spotlight on the recent economic crisis, which has hit hard the entire economy. Following the main methodological trends in the literature, convergence methods were applied using the traditional cross-section approach. The empirical analysis covering a 21-year period provided clear evidence in favour of ß-convergence, but indicated ?-divergence (Galton's fallacy). Wages' dispersion seems to rise during the economic crises and persists in the first stage of recovery as well. This finding provides support to Barro and Sala-i-Martin's theory on the temporary divergence effect induced by economic shocks.