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 Article no.

Disappearing Borders in the Visegrad Countries

Ádám Márkus

Prague Economic Papers 2018, 27(2):149-168 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.635

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the trade integration process of the Visegrad countries from a special point of view, namely by estimating border effects in the countries. The regressional analysis run with two different estimators (OLS vs. PPML) on two different model specifications suggests that between 1995 and 2011 the V4 countries were integrating continuously into the Single Market of the European Union. The results also show that the size of border effect is fairly sensitive to the estimator and particularly to the specification chosen by the researcher. According to the country-level estimation, Hungary seems to be the most integrated country getting the lowest home bias parameters followed by the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, respectively.

Is a Model of Comprehensive Regionalism Trade-Increasing for V4 Countries? Sectoral Approach

Iryna Gauger, Katarzyna Sledziewska

Prague Economic Papers 2018, 27(1):21-39 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.639

This paper aims to identify the impact of a "deep" (economic union) and "shallow" (Common Commercial Policy) integration on 4 Visegrad countries' trade with the EU and non-EU industrialized countries. Trade flows are analysed on the basis of sectors over the period of 1995-2011: the gravity model also utilizes sectoral value-added and sectoral output as proxies for the market size. The impact of regional trade agreements (RTAs) is evaluated for 17 WIOD sectors based on the research methodology developed by Baldwin (2006), Flam and Nordstrom (2003) and Fernandes (2006). Contrary to the mentioned research studies, this paper uses a more advanced econometric technique - the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood method displayed in Silva and Tenreyro (2006). This paper concludes that both "deep" and "shallow" trade arrangements have a more pronounced effect on Visegrad high value-added product exports than on Visegrad low value-added product exports. Common Commercial Policy's trade effects on RTAs, for instance in the case of Mexico and Turkey, are comparable to its trade effects with EU countries. The Common Commercial Policy's effect on RTAs is almost absent in low-value-added product sectors of Visegrad countries. Thus, we conclude that integration with the EU influenced Visegrad countries' trade of higher value-added goods with both the EU and non-EU industrialized countries.

The Impacts of Common Commercial Policy on Export Performances of Visegrad Countries

Tinatin Akhvlediani, Katarzyna ¦ledziewska

Prague Economic Papers 2017, 26(1):3-18 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.593

The paper aims to investigate the impact of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) and common commercial policy (CCP) on export performances of Visegrad group of countries (The Visegrad Four, V-4: Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary) preceding and following the EU accession. The V-4, before becoming the EU members, have participated actively in regionalism, signing free trade agreements and customs unions which often also resulted in the extended economic integration. But since the EU accession in 2004, all RTAs of the new members were no longer valid as these countries became the parties of the CCP of the EU. To analyse whether CCP was beneficial on the export performances of the V-4 countries, we estimate the augmented gravity model by employing Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) estimator for time periods before and after the EU accession, in 1999-2003 and 2004-2013, respectively.

To Lend or to Borrow on the Interbank Market: What Matters for Commercial Banks in the Visegrad Countries

Pavla Vodová

Prague Economic Papers 2015, 24(6):662-677 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.529

The aim of this paper is to find out determinants which affect the commercial banks' decision to lend on the interbank market in the Visegrad countries. The data cover the period from 2000 to 2011. The net interbank position of individual banking sectors significantly differs. Results of the probit model showed that banks' decision to lend in interbank market is determined both by bank-specific and macroeconomic factors. Bank liquidity, capital adequacy and quality of the loan portfolio are important bank-specific factors. Growth rate of the gross domestic products, unemployment rate, financial crisis and level of interest rates matter among macroeconomic factors. Although the Visegrad countries have a lot in common, different factors determined the banks' decision in individual countries. Moreover, the direction of influence of some factors may also differ.

The Reaction Function of Three Central Banks of Visegrad Group

Josef Arlt, Martin Mandel

Prague Economic Papers 2014, 23(3):269-289 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.484

The aim of our paper is to formulate and empirically verify the simple backward looking econometric model of the monetary policy rule, which would be able to describe the development of monetary policy rate, namely only on the basis of statistically measured and at the given time available information. We focus on the Czech National Bank, the National Bank of Poland and the Magyar Nemzeti Bank in the period of January 1999 to April 2012. In the present paper we discuss some methodological problems associated with the ex-post empirical verification of the central bank's monetary policy rule. We construct an empirical model of the monetary policy rule, justify the choice and the inclusion of explanatory variables, analyse the statistical properties of time series, and verify the alternative forms of econometric models. Our analysis showed that the development of monetary policy rate in the reporting period can be explained by the past and present development of four explanatory variables: yearly inflation rate, exchange rate, ECB main refinancing rate and growth rate of M2. The annualized inflation rate proved to be statistically insignificant in the model. We find interesting that the statistical quality of the estimated model was further increased after a six-month lag of the annual inflation rate added to the model.

The credit crisis: what lessons for Visegrad?

Colin Lawson, Emília Zimková

Prague Economic Papers 2009, 18(2):99-113 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.344

The origins, growth and importance of the 2007-2009 American and European credit crisis are analysed. The causes lie in the speculative bubbles, the changed attitudes to domestic property, the growth of securitisation and derivatives trading, the changing roles of financial institutions, poor policy choices and inadequate regulation. The Visegrad states are being affected by declining export markets that have triggered domestic recessions, and growing credit problems. The recession is especially penalising economies they have followed risky policies. The course of the recession is currently impossible to predict. But it is possible for these states to draw on the regulatory lessons inflicted on others, and to respond to the challenge of co-regulating the international banks that dominate their domestic markets, and which while too large to fail, are also too large to rescue unaided.

Capital Structure of Listed Companies in Visegrad Countries

Patrik Bauer

Prague Economic Papers 2004, 13(2):159-175 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.237

This paper analyzes capital structure of listed companies in Visegrad countries during the period from 2000 to 2001. The results are based on the database, which assembles financial reports of listed firms. In general, leverage of these firms is relatively low if measured in book value, but it is relatively high if assessed in market value. Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation is used in order to investigate the determinants of capital structure. According to the results, leverage of a company is positively correlated with size and it is negatively correlated with profitability, tangibility and non-debt tax shields. There is a negative relationship between leverage measured in market value and growth opportunities. Moreover, leverage decreases with volatility, albeit on a lower level of statistical significance.