Politická ekonomie
Politická ekonomie
Politická ekonomie
TEORETICKÝ ČASOPIS • ISSN 0032-3233 (Print) • ISSN 2336-8225 (Online)

Politická ekonomie Vol. 65 No. 1

Dynamika inflácie v krajinách monetárnej únie: jej vplyv na spoločnú hospodársku politiku

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1127

[plný text (PDF)]

Patrik Kupkovič

This paper studies the impact of inflation dynamics on a common economic policy in the monetary union using a small New Keynesian model of the monetary union. We are considering two open economy versions of the Phillips curve: a typical New Keynesian Phillips curve with only forward looking dynamics and a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve with forward and backward looking dynamics. The main findings are as follows: (i) the backward looking dynamics (persistence) of inflation in the Phillips curve is an important determinant of the common economic policy in the monetary union; (ii) in the case of asymmetric dynamics of inflation in the monetary union countries, the country with more persistent inflation dynamics has a significant impact on the common economic policy.

JEL klasifikace: E52, E61, E62, E63, F41

Reference:
Backus, D. K., Kehoe, P. J., Kydland, F. E. (1992).International Real Business Cycles. Journal of Political Economy, 100(4), 745–775, https://doi.org/10.1086/261838

Beetsma, R. M. W. J., Jensen, H. (2002). Monetary and Fiscal Interactions in a Micro-Founded model of a Monetary Union. ECB. Working Paper Series. No. 166.

Benigno, P., López-Salido, J. D. (2004). An Evaluation of Alternative Targeting Rules for the ECB, in Beetsma, R., et al. ed., Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policies and Labour Markets. New York: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-511-18468-0, pp. 59–87.

Bodenstein, M., Guerrieri, L., Labriola, J. (2014). Macroeconomic Policy Games. Federal Reserve

Board. Finance and Economics Discussion Series No. 2014-87.

Calvo, G. A. (1983). Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383–398, https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(83)90060-0

Čížek, O. (2015). Makroekonometrický model eurozóny. Politická ekonomie, 63(3), 279–299.

Dejong, D. N., Dave, C. (2011). Structural macroeconometrics. Second Edition. New Jersey:

Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0-691-15287-5.

Dixit, A. K., Stiglitz, E. S. (1977). Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity. The American Economic Review, 67(3), 297–308.

Ferrero, A. (2005). Fiscal and Monetary rules for a Currency Union. ECB. Working Paper Series No. 502.

Fuhrer, J. C. (1997). The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29(3), 338–350, https://doi.org/10.2307/2953698

Galí, J. (2008). Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle: An introduction to the New Keynesian Framework. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0-691-13316-4.

Galí, J., Gertler, M. (1999). Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 44(2), 195–222, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-3932(99)00023-9

Galí, J., Gertler, M., López-Salido, J. D. (2001). European Inflation Dynamics. NBER. Working Paper No. 8218.

Galí, J., Monacelli, T. (2004). Optimal Fiscal Policy in Monetary Union. Príspevok na konferencii Open Macro Models and Policy in the Development of the European Economy

a na Designing a Macroeconomic Policy Framework for Europe.

Horvath, M. (2008). Does Government Spending Optimally Crowd in Private Consumption? Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. Working Paper Series CDMA 07/03. Dostupné z:

http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/CDMA/papers/wp0805.pdf

Janků, J., Kappel, S., Kučerová, Z. (2015). Koordinace fiskální a monetární politiky Slovenska prizmatem teorie her. Ekonomický časopis, 63(1), 51–71.

Jondeau, E., Le Bihan, H. (2005). Testing for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Additional

international evidence. Economic Modelling, 22(3), 521–550, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.

econmod.2004.09.002

Juillard, M. (2010). Report on computing optimal policy. CEPREMAP. MONFISPOL FPT project

No. SSH-225149.

Machado, C., Ribeiro, A. P. (2010). Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in a Monetary Union with Country-size Asymmetry. CEF.UP. Working Paper No. 2010-03.

Meller, B., Nautz, D. (2012). Inflation persistence in the Euro area before and after the European Monetary Union. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1170–1176, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.03.016

Múčka, Z., Horváth, M. (2015). Fiscal Policy Matters A New DSGE Model for Slovakia. Council for Budget responsibility. Discussion Paper No.1/2015.

Roberts, J. M. (2001). How Well Does the New Keynesian Sticky-Price Model Fit the Data? Federal Reserve Board. Finance and Economics Discussion Series No. 2001-13.

Rudd, J., Whelan, K. (2005). New Tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(6), 1167–1181, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.08.006

Sbordone, A. M. (2002). Prices and Unit Labor Costs: a New Test Of Price Stickiness. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49(2), 265–292, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-3932(01)00111-8

Senaj, M., Výškrabka, M., Zeman, J. (2010). MUSE: Monetary Union and Slovak Economy Model.

NBS. Working Paper No. 1/2010.

Smets, F., Wouters, R. (2002). An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area. ECB. Working Paper Series No. 171. Dostupné z: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp171.pdf

Villemot, S. (2011). DSGE Solving rational expectations models at first order: what DYNARE does.DYNARE. Working Paper No. 2.

Vogel, L., Roeger, W., Herz, B. (2012). The Performance of Simple Fiscal Policy Rules in Monetary Union. European Commission. Economic Papers No. 470.

Woodford, M. (2003). Interest and Prices. Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy. United Kingdom: Princeston University Press. ISBN 0-691-01049-8.