Politická ekonomie 2017, 65(4):476-500 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1156

Jak může zahraniční migrace ovlivnit vývoj počtu a věkové struktury obyvatelstva České republiky?

Tomáš Fiala, Jitka Langhamrová
Tomáš Fiala (fiala@vse.cz), Jitka Langhamrová (langhamj@vse.cz), Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, Fakulta informatiky a statistiky

Impact of Foreign Migration on the Development of the Size and Age Structure of the Population of the Czech Republic

As of 2015, the yearly number of live births in the Czech Republic will probably be lower than the number of deaths. Latest population forecast, presented by the Czech Statistical Office in 2013, shows that without permanent international immigration the population of the Czech Republic would decrease. The paper presents the results of our own population forecast, which takes into account the recent fertility increase observed in 2013-2015, and the replacement migration concept, i.e. the estimate of the amount of annual net migration needed to stabilize the Czech Republic population size at its current size (10.6 million of inhabitants) until the end of this century. Three different scenarios of future fertility levels are assumed. We also compare our results with the population forecast without migration and with constant net migration. Additionally to the population forecast itself, we present future trends in the productive, post-productive and old-age population, and compute old-age dependency ratios. We define the upper threshold of the productive age in agreement with the increasing retirement age in the Czech Republic. Based on our findings, we conclude that immigration is not able to stop the population ageing process as such, but can partially eliminate its consequences. Possible opportunities, as well as migration risks, are also discussed.

Keywords: Czech Republic, population projection, net migration, replacement migration, productive age, post productive age, old-age dependency ratio
JEL classification: J11, J61

Published: August 1, 2017  Show citation

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Fiala, T., & Langhamrová, J. (2017). Impact of Foreign Migration on the Development of the Size and Age Structure of the Population of the Czech Republic. Politická ekonomie, 65(4), 476-500. doi: 10.18267/j.polek.1156
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