Politická ekonomie 2017, 65(5):583-600 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1163

Zmeny zloženia kompozitného predstihového indikátora Slovenska v čase

Andrea Tkáčová, Veronika Kišová
Andrea Tkáčová (andrea.tkacova@tuke.sk), Veronika Kišová (veronika.kisova@student.tuke.sk), Technická univerzita v Košiciach, Ekonomická fakulta

Changes of Composite Leading Indicator Composition over Time

Cyclical behavior of the economy can be monitored and predicted with the help of composite leading indicator (CLI) which is an aggregate index of several individual indicators and is statistical relevant for analyzing and forecasting of reference series. This article is focus on construction of CLI for Slovakia and its changes over time. For its construction is used combination of methodologies of OECD and Institute of Informatics and Statistics (Infostat). These methodologies are based on chosen reference series and 124 economic indicators, filtering of time series with Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP filter), normalization of time series, cross correlation and creation of CLI with system of same and different weights. On the base of economic indicator analysis are selected different groups of leading cyclical indicators in seven different time periods. It means that exist changes of CLI composition over time. The best predictable abilities of Slovak business cycle has CLI constructed from time period 2010-2015. On this base was created short-term forecast of Slovak business cycle which supposed economic grow in second and third quarter 2017. Positive GDP growth expectations create space for new investment opportunities as well as government restrictions on public expenditures. The result of our analysis indicate that in the future we can expect new changes in composition of CLI for Slovak economy.

Keywords: composite leading indicator (CLI), business cycle, gross domestic product, cyclical indicators, cross correlation.
JEL classification: E32, E37

Published: October 1, 2017  Show citation

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Tkáčová, A., & Kišová, V. (2017). Changes of Composite Leading Indicator Composition over Time. Politická ekonomie, 65(5), 583-600. doi: 10.18267/j.polek.1163
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