Politická ekonomie
Politická ekonomie
Politická ekonomie
TEORETICKÝ ČASOPIS • ISSN 0032-3233 (Print) • ISSN 2336-8225 (Online)

Politická ekonomie Vol. 65 No. 6

Empirická verifikace exportní funkce s akcentem na vliv kurzu české koruny k euru

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1168

[plný text (PDF)]

Martin Mandel, Van Quang Tran

The traditional view of international economics is that exchange rate is a leading factor which can strongly affect a country’s foreign trade. However, the production fragmentation widespread around the world due to the recent globalization may weaken the role of exchange rate on international trade. As the Czech economy is a very open one, a quantitative knowledge of the impact of exchange rate on export is a valuable information for all actors in the economy. In our contribution, we examine effect of the exchange rate of the Czech crown on domestic export in three macroeconomic models in both short and long run. The first one is a Keynesian model representing the demand for export in the form of marginal propensities. The second one is a VAR model in elasticities of the reduced form. The last one is a structural model resulting from the findings from the previous one. To estimate their parameters, we use quarterly data from 2000 Q1 to 2016 Q1. In all three cases we identify statistically significant impact of exchange rate on export in short-run models.

JEL klasifikace: E12, F14, F37

Alexander, S. (1952). The Effect of a Devaluation on the Trade Balance. IMF. Staff Papers. April 1952, 263–278.

Altintas, H., Türker, O. (2014). The Dynamics of Export and Import Functions in Turkey:

Cointegration and Multivariate Granger Causation Analysis. International Journal of Asian

Social Science, 4(5), 676–689.

Arlt, J., Arltová, M. (2009). Ekonomické časové řady. Praha: Professional Publishing.

ISBN 978-80-86946-85-6.

Athukorala, P., Riedel, J. (1994). Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of

NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong: A Comment. The Economic Journal, 104(427), 1411–1414, https://doi.org/10.2307/2235456

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1985). Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDSc.

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 500–504, https://doi.org/10.2307/1925980

Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Goswami, G. (2003). A Disaggregated Approach to Test the J-Curve

Phenomenon: Japan versus Her Major Trading Partners. Journal of Economics and Finance,

27(1), 102–113, https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02751593

Baláž, P., Hamara, A. (2016). Analýza závislosti exportu SR na vývoji ekonomiky SRN. Politická ekonomie, 64(5), 573–590, https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1088

Canova, F. (2007). Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research. Princeton: Princeton University Press. ISBN 9780691115047.

Enders, W. (2014). Applied Econometric Time Series. 4th Edition. Wiley. ISBN 978-1-118-80856-6.

Franta, M., Holub, T., Král, P., Kubicová, I., Šmídková, K., Vašíček, B. (2014). Měnový kurz jako nástroj při nulových úrokových sazbách: případ ČR. ČNB, Research and Policy Notes 3/2014.

Goldstein, M., Khan, M. S. (1978). The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous

Approach. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 60(2), 275–286, https://doi.org/10.2307/1924981

Grullon, S. (2012). Determinants of the Dominican Republic’s Export Demand Function: Results from the Bounds Test for Co-integration. The International Journal of Applied Economics and Finance, 6(3), 109–116, https://doi.org/10.3923/ijaef.2012.109.116

Hanousek, J., Kočenda, E. (2014). Factors of Trade in Europe. Economic Systems, 38(4), 518–535, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2014.06.001

Havrlant, D., Hušek, R. (2011). Models of Factors Driving the Czech Export. Prague economic papers, 20(3), 195–215, https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.396

Hlušek, M., Singer, M. (1999). Možnosti modelování vývozu a dovozu v období restrukturalizace. Finance a úvěr, 49(3), 143–156.

Holub, T. (1999). Ceny v českém zahraničním obchodě. Finance a úvěr, 49(5), 253–267.

Holub, T., Král, P. (2013). Mýty opřádající intervence ČNB. Praha: ČNB. Dostupné z: https://www.cnb.cz/cs/verejnost/pro_media/clanky_rozhovory/media_2013/cl_13_131112_holub_


Juselius, K. (2006). The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications. Oxford: Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780199285679.

Kapička, M. (1997). Vývoj obchodní bilance v letech 1993–1996. Finance a úvěr, 47(3), 163–175.

Kharroubi, E. (2011). The Trade Balance and the Real Exchange Rate. BIS Quarterly Review,

September 2011, 33–42.

Kindleberger, Ch. P. (1968). International Economics, revised ed. Homewood. Illinois: R. D. Irwin, Inc. 1968.

Kreidl, V. (1995). Analýza české importní a exportní poptávky. Finance a úvěr, 45(12), 695–708.

Magee, S. P. (1973). Currency Contracts, Pass Through, and Devaluation. Brookings Papers of Economic Activity, 4(1), 303–325, https://doi.org/10.2307/2534091

Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, M. H. (2016). Oil Prices and the Global Economy: Is it Different this Time Around? USC-INET. Research Paper No. 16-21, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2808084

Muscatelli, V. A., Srinivasan, T. G., Vines, D. (1992). Demand and Supply Factors in the

Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong. The Economic Journal, 102(415), 1467–1477, https://doi.org/10.2307/2234801

Obešlo, F. (2015). Exportní a importní funkce (empirická analýza na příkladě České republiky). VŠE v Praze, diplomová práce, obhájeno 2015.

Pánková, V. (2003). Analýza vlivu cenových relací na objem exportu v České republice. Politická ekonomie, 51(4), 533–540, https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.415

Riedel, J. (1988). The Demand for LDC Exports of Manufactures: Estimates from Hong Kong.

The Economic Journal, 98(389), 138–148, https://doi.org/10.2307/2233515

Šmídková, K., Barrell, R., Holland, D. (2003). Estimates of Fundamental Real Exchange

Rates for the Five EU Pre-Accession Countries. Prague Economic Papers, 12(4), 291–318, https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.223

Thaver, R. L., Bova, Ch. (2014). An Estimation of Ecuador’s Export Demand Function with the Us. The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, 8(1), 89–102.

Tomšík, V. (2001). Regresní analýza funkcí zahraničního obchodu ČR v letech 1993–1998.

Finance a úvěr, 51(1), 46–58.

Winters, L. A. (1981). An Econometric Model of the Export Sector: UK Visible Exports and Their Prices 1955-1973. Cambridge Studies in Applied Econometrics. No. 4.