Politická ekonomie
Politická ekonomie
Politická ekonomie
TEORETICKÝ ČASOPIS • ISSN 0032-3233 (Print) • ISSN 2336-8225 (Online)

Politická ekonomie Vol. 66 No. 2

Investice v transmisním mechanismu cílování inflace – verifikace zdrojů variability investic v České republice

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1184

[plný text (PDF)]

Lukáš Kučera

The paper is devoted to the topic of investment with emphasis on their position within the transmission mechanism of inflation targeting. It briefly discusses starting-points of inflation targeting regime, individual transmission channels of monetary policy, and routes through which the central bank may influence the investment. There are mentioned selected investment theories. Other factors, whose changes may induce changes in investment, are derived using these theories. Using available data, sources of investment variability are verified for the Czech Republic. Correlation analysis is performed and the vector error correction model is compiled. It seems that rise of aggregate demand is transformed into rise of investment. Similarly in case of asset prices. Appreciation of CZK is reflected in decline of investment. All three relations are consistent with the theory. On the contrary, sensitivity of investment to changes in market expected real interest rates is not clear.

JEL klasifikace: C32, E22, E43, E52

Alpanda, S., Aysun, U. (2012). Global Banking and the Balance Sheet Channel of Monetary

Transmission. International Journal of Central Banking, 8(3), 141–175.

BCPP (2016). Burzovní indexy. Praha: Burza cenných papírů Praha. Dostupné z: https://www.pse.cz/dokument.aspx?k=Burzovni-Indexy

Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 27–48, https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.9.4.27

Bernanke, B., Gertler, M., Gilchrist, S. (1996). The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(1), 1–15, https://doi.org/10.2307/2109844

Boivin, J., Kiley, M. T., Mishkin, F. S. (2010). How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time? National Bureau of Economic Research. Cambridge Working Paper No. 15879, https://doi.org/10.3386/w15879. Dostupné z: http://www.nber.org/papers/w15879

Brainard, W. C., Tobin, J. (1968). Pitfalls in Financial Model Building. The American Economic Review, 58(2), 99–122.

Cacciatore, M., Ghironi, F., Turnovsky, S. J. (2015). Inflation Targeting and Economic Reforms in New Zealand. International Journal of Central Banking, 11(S1), 145–198.

ČNB (2016a). ARAD systém časových řad. Praha: Česká národní banka. Dostupné z: http://www.


ČNB (2016b). Inflační očekávání finančního trhu. Praha: Česká národní banka. Dostupné z: http://www.cnb.cz/cs/financni_trhy/inflacni_ocekavani_ft/index.html

ČSÚ (2016). Hrubý domácí produkt - Časové řady ukazatelů čtvrtletních účtů. Praha: Český

statistický úřad. Dostupné z: https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/hdp_cr

Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431, https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531

Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057–1072, https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517

Feldstein, M. (1994). The Effect of Outbound Foreign Direct Investment on the Domestic Capital Stock. National Bureau of Economic Research. Cambridge Working Paper No. 4668, https://doi.org/10.3386/w4668. Dostupné z: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4668

Fisher, I. (1930). The Theory of Interest, As Determined by Impatience To Spend Income and

Opportunity To Invest It. New York: The Macmillan Company. Dostupné z: http://lf-oll.


Fuller, W. A. (1976). Introduction to Statistical Time Series. New York: J. Wiley.

Hodrick, R. J., Prescott, E. C. (1997). Postwar U. S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), 1–16, https://doi.org/10.2307/2953682

Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 231–254, https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3

Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in

Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551–1580, https://doi.org/10.2307/2938278

Jorgenson, D. W. (1963). Capital Theory and Investment Behavior. The American Economic

Review, 53(2), 247–259.

Kamin, S., Turner, P., Van’t dack, J. (1998). The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies: An Overview. Bank for International Settlements. Policy Papers No. 3. Dostupné z: http://www.bis.org/publ/plcy03.htm

Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. London: MacMillan and Co., Limited.

Kohlscheen, E., Miyajima, K. (2015). The Transmission of Monetary Policy in EMEs in a Changing Financial Environment: A Longitudinal Analysis. Bank for International Settlements.

BIS Working Papers No. 495. Dostupné z: http://www.bis.org/publ/work495.pdf

Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., Schin, Y. (1992). Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stacionarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1–3), 159–178, https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-y

Mishkin, F. S. (1996). The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy.

National Bureau of Economic Research. Cambridge Working Paper No. 5464, https://doi.

org/10.3386/w5464. Dostupné z: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5464

Pollock, D. S. G. (2000). Trend Estimation and De-trending via Rational Square-wave Filters. Journal of Econometrics, 99(2), 317–334, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-4076(00)00028-2

Rouzet, D. (2010). From the Neoclassical Model to Tobin´s Q Theory of Investment [Ec 1011b, Spring 2010, Section 10: Investment]. Cambridge: Harvard University. Dostupné z: http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic734133.files/Section10.pdf

Rudebusch, G. D., Svensson, L. E. O. (1998). Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting. National Bureau of Economic Research. Cambridge Working Paper No. 6512, https://doi.org/10.3386/w6512. Dostupné z: http://www.nber.org/papers/w6512

Samuelson, P. A., Solow, R. M. (1960). Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy. The American Economic Review, 50(2), 177–194.

Svensson, L. E. O. (1998). Open-Economy Inflation Targeting. National Bureau of Economic

Research. Cambridge Working Paper No. 6545, https://doi.org/10.3386/w6545. Dostupné z:


Tobin, J. (1969). A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1(1), 15–29, https://doi.org/10.2307/1991374

van Els, P., Locarno, A., Morgan, J., Villetelle, J. P. (2001). Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area: What Do Aggregate and National Structural Models Tell Us? European Central Bank. Working Paper No. 94. Dostupné z: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp094.pdf?4899044289dedf57ef6cd2523f6b4da9