Politická ekonomie
Politická ekonomie
Politická ekonomie
TEORETICKÝ ČASOPIS • ISSN 0032-3233 (Print) • ISSN 2336-8225 (Online)

Politická ekonomie Vol. 67 No. 1

Vliv ekonomické krize na úroveň plodnosti ve státech Evropské unie

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1230

[plný text (PDF)]

Jiřina Kocourková, Anna Šťastná, Alena Černíková

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of the economic crisis which commenced in 2008 on fertility levels across the EU, i.e., whether the onset of the crisis influenced the fertility trends and whether the various countries differed in terms of their response to the crisis. The relationship between the two economic indicators GDP per capita and unemployment rate and the total fertility rate as the dependent variable was explored employing panel regression models. Simultaneously, an investigation was conducted into which indicator better fits the modelling of the influence of macro-economic conditions of individual countries on the fertility levels. Data on 28 EU member states from the period 2001 to 2013 were included in the analysis. The results revealed that the onset of the economic crisis exerted a fundamental effect on fertility. In addition, it was found that the two economic indicators were interchangeable in terms of the effects exerted. In conclusion, it was determined that the findings support the supposition that fertility tends to be pro-cyclical in character.

JEL klasifikace: C51, C52, J11, O15

Adserà, A. (2004). Changing Fertility Rates In Developed Countries. The Impact of Labor Market

Institutions. Journal of Population Economics, 17(1), 17–43, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-003-0166-x

Adserà, A. (2005). Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed

Countries. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 95(2),189–193,


Adserà, A., Menendez, A. (2011). Fertility Changes in Latin America in Periods

of Economic Uncertainty. Population Studies, 65(1), 37–56, https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2010.53029

Bagliano, F. C., Morana, C. (2012) The Great Recession: US Dynamics and Spillovers to the

Word Economy. Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(1), 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.06.002

Basten, S., Lutz, W., Scherbov, S. (2013). Very Long Range Global Population Scenarios to 2300

and the Implications of Sustained Low Fertility. Demographic Research, 28, 1145–1166,


Becker, G. (1960). An Economic Analysis of Fertility, in George B. Roberts, ed., Demographic and

Economic Change in Developed Countries. NBER: Columbia University Press, pp. 209–240.

ISBN 0-87014-302-6.

Becker, G. (1981). A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

ISBN 0-674-90699-3.

Becker, G. S., Murphy, K. M., Tamura, R. (1990). Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth.

Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 12–37, https://doi.org/10.3386/w3414

Blaszczyński, E. M. (2009). From Crisis to Recovery: Central Europe’s Winners and Losers. Washington:

Center for European Policy Analysis. ISBN 978-0-9825117-2-5.

Butz, W. P., Ward, M. P. (1979). The Emergence of Countercyclical U. S. Fertility. The American

Economic Review, 69(3), 318–328.

Cazzola, A., Pasquini, L., Angeli, A. (2016). The Relationship between Unemployment and

Fertility in Italy: A Time-series Analysis. Demographic Research, 34, 1–38, https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2016.34.1

Claessens, S., Kosse, M. A. (2009). What is a Recession? Finance and Development, 46(1).

Comolli, Ch. L. (2017). The Fertility Response to the Great Recession in Europe and the United

States: Structural Economic Conditions and Perceived Economic Uncertainty. Demographic

Research, 36, 1549–1600, https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2017.36.51

Currais, L. (2003). Demographic Transition, Human Capital and Growth. Journal of Business

& Economics Research, 1(7), 1–12, https://doi.org/10.19030/jber.v1i7.3027

Gorzelak, G., Goh, Ch.-Ch. (eds.) (2011). Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe: From

Similarity to Diversity. Barbara Budrich Publishers. ISBN 978-3866493568.

Graham, E., Sabater, A., Fiori, F., Mcgowan, Teresa (ed.) (2016). Fertility Change in the Context

of Economic Recession in Italy and Spain. ESCR Centre for Population Change. Briefing 36.

Gujarati, D. N. (2009). Basic Econometrics. Boston: McGraw-Hill Irwin.

EUROSTAT (2015a). Real GDP Per Capita, Growth Rate and Totals [online]. [cit. 2015-25-11].

Dostupné z: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

EUROSTAT (2015b). Unemployment Rate by Sex and Age Groups - annual Average, % [online].

[cit. 2015-25-11]. Dostupné z: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

EUROSTAT (2015c). Fertility indicators [online]. [cit. 2013-15-11]. Dostupné z: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database >

Goldstein, J. R., Sobotka, T., Jasilioniene, A. (2009). The End of „lowest-low“

Fertility? Population and Development Review, 35(4), 663–700, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00304.x

Goldstein, J. R., Kreyenfeld, M., Jasilioniene, A., Karaman Örsal, D. (2013) Fertility Reactions to

the ‘Great Recession’ in Europe: Recent Evidence from Order-specific Data. Demographic

Research, 29(4), 85–104, https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.4

Kohler, H-P., Billary, F. C., Ortega, J. A. (2006). Low Fertility in Europe: Causes, Implications and

Policy Options, in Harris, F. R., ed., Who Will Do the Work? Who Will Pay the Taxes? USA:

Rowman & Littlefield Publisher.

Koop, G. (2008). Introduction to Econometrics. Hoboken. Hoboken: John Wiley.

Kravdal, Ø. (2002). The Impact of Individual and Aggregate Unemployment on Fertility

in Norway. Demographic Research, 6(10), 263–294, https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.10

Lanzieri, G. (2013). Towards a „Baby Recession“ in Europe? Differential Fertility Trends During

the Economic Crisis. Statistics in Focus, 2013 (13).

Macunovich, D. J. (1996). Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring Their Effects on US

Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation. Population and Development Review,

22(Supplement: Fertility in the United States: New Patterns, New Theories), 223–257,


Neels, K., Theunynck, Z., Wood, J. (2013). Economic Recession and first Births in Europe:

Recession-induced Postponement and Recuperation of Fertility in 14 European Countries

between 1970 and 2005. International Journal of Public Health, 58(1), 43–55, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-012-0390-9

Pavelka, T. (2006). Makroekonomie: základní kurz. Slaný: Melandrium, Vyd. 1., ISBN 80-86175-46-6.

Reichardt, A. (2011). Poland and the Global Economic Crisis: Observations and Reflections in the

Public Sector. Journal of Finance and Management in Public Services, 10(1), 38–48.

Schneider, D. (2015). The Great Recession, Fertility, and Uncertainty: Evidence from the

United States. Journal of Marriage and Family, 77(5), 1144–1156, https://doi.org/10.1111/jomf.12212

Sobotka, T, Skirbekk, V., Philipov, D. (2011). Economic Recession and Fertility in the

Developed World. Population and Development Review, 37(2), 267–306, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00411.x

Testa, M. R., Basten, S. (2014) Certainty of Meeting Fertility Intentions Declines in Europe During

the ‚Great Recession’. Demographic Research, 31(23), 687–734, https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2014.31.23

Varea, C., Terán, J. M., Bernis, C., Bogin, B., Gonzáles-Gonzáles, A. (2016). Is The Economic Crisis

Affecting Birth Outcome in Spain? Evaluation of Temporal Trend in Underweight at Birth

(2003–2012). Annals of Human Biology, 43(2), 169–182, https://doi.org/10.3109/03014460.2015.1131847

Vikat, A. (2004). Women’s Labor Force Attachment and Childbearing in Finland. Demographic

Research, Special Collection, 3(8), 177–212, https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.8

Wang, Q., Sun, X. (2016). The Role of Socio-political and Economic Factors in Fertility Decline:

A Cross-country Analysis. World Development, 87, 360–370, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.07.004