Politická ekonomie 2007, 55(2):183-205 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.596

Monetární teorie cyklu, dluhový problém a finanční krize

Pavel Dvořák
Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze.

Monetary Cycle Theory, Debt Problem and Financial Crises

In attempts to explain the mechanism of a financial crisis of the third generation, the basic problem is to specify the basic causes of its emergence. In the text of the paper we have formulated a hypothesis saying that the basic cause of the emergence of a systemic financial crisis of the Asian type is an overall unsound indebtedness, initiated - using the terminology of a monetary theory of cycles - by malinvestment, caused by an excessive credit boom. If these investments are financed through credits, their systematic liquidation leads not only to recession, but also to the development of unsound indebtedness and to a massive credit non-reimbursement. If the credits are granted in the local currency, there develops an internal debt problem, a banking crisis and subsequently a monetary crisis. If the credits are given in foreign currencies, there develops an external debt problem, a monetary crisis and subsequently a banking crisis. Debt, banking and monetary problems are mutually amplified and lead to the emergence of a systemic financial crisis.

Keywords: systemic financial crisis, monetary theory of business cycles, malinvestment, credit boom, debt problem
JEL classification: F34, G15

Published: April 1, 2007  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Dvořák, P. (2007). Monetary Cycle Theory, Debt Problem and Financial Crises. Politická ekonomie, 55(2), 183-205. doi: 10.18267/j.polek.596
Download citation
  • BibTeX (.bib)
  • Bookends (.ris)
  • EasyBib (.ris)
  • EndNote (.enw)
  • EndNote 8 (.xml)
  • ISI WoS (.isi)
  • Medlars (.medlars)
  • Mendeley (.ris)
  • MODS (.xml)
  • Papers (.ris)
  • RefWorks (.txt)
  • RefManager (.ris)
  • RIS (.ris)
  • MS Word (.xml)
  • Zotero (.ris)
    • Open full article

    References

    1. AGHION, P.; BACCHETTA, P.; BANERJEE, A. 2001. Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints. European Economic Review, 2001, no. 45, s. 1121-1150. Go to original source...
    2. AIZENMAN, J.; MARION, N. Uncertainity and the Disappearance of International Credit. In GLICK, R.; MORENO, R.; SPIEGEL, M. M. (eds.). Fiancial crises in emerging markets. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2001, s. 167-190. Go to original source...
    3. BIS annual report. 1997, 1998.
    4. Capital flows to emerging market economies. Institute of international finance, 2006, January 19.
    5. COCHRAN, J. P.; CALL, S. T.; GLAHE, F. R. 2003. Austrian business cycle theory: Variations on a theme. The quaterly journal of austrian economics, 2003, vol. 6, no. 1, s. 67-73. Go to original source...
    6. CORSETTI, G.; PESENTI, P.; ROUBINI, N. What caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? [NBER Working Paper 6833]. December 1998. Go to original source...
    7. Debt and reserve related indicators of external vulnerability. IMF, 2000, March 23.
    8. DIAMOND, D. W.; RAJAN, R. G. 2001. Banks, short term debt and finacial crises: theory, policy implications and applications. Carnegie-Rochester Conference series on public policy, June 2001, vol. 54, issue 1, s. 37-71. Go to original source...
    9. DOOLEY, M. P. 2000. Capital Flows and Crises in Emerging Markets. NBER Reporter, Fall 2000.
    10. DOOLEY, M. P.; SHIN, I. Private Inflows when Crises Are Anticipated: A Case Study of Korea. In GLICK, R.; MORENO, R.; SPIEGEL, M. M. (eds.). Financial crises in emerging markets. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2001, s. 243-274. Go to original source...
    11. DVOŘÁK, P. 2004. Finanční krize jako globální problém a možnost jejího vzniku v České republice. Studie č. 2. Praha : Národohospodářský ústav Josefa Hlávky, 2004.
    12. DVOŘÁK, P. 2004. Dluhový problém v otevřené ekonomice a problém jeho kvantifikace, Sborník Theoretical and practical aspects of public finance, IXth international conference, VŠE, Praha, březen 2004.
    13. EICHENGREEN, B.; MITCHENER, K. 2003. The Great Depression as a credit boom gone wrong. [BIS Working Papers No 137]. Berkeley : University of California, Monetary and Economic Department, September 2003. Go to original source...
    14. Financial crises: Characteristics and indicators of vulnerability. 1998. IMF, World economic Outlook, May, s. 74-97.
    15. Financial stability review. ECB, December 2005.
    16. GARRISON, R.W. 2004. Overconsumption and forced saving in the Mises-Hayek theory of the business cycle. History of political Economy, 2004, vol. 36, no. 2. Go to original source...
    17. GAVIN, M.; HAUSMAN, R. 1995. The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context. Paper presented at the Conference on Banking Crises in Latin America, Washington, DC, 1995. Go to original source...
    18. GLICK, R.; MORENO, R.; SPIEGEL, M. M. (eds.). 2001. Financial crises in emerging markets. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2001. Go to original source...
    19. GRIFFITH-JONES, S.; MONTES, M.; NASUTION, A. 2001. Short term capital flows and economic crises. Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2001. Go to original source...
    20. HAHM, JOON-HO; MISHKIN, F. 2000. Causes of the Korean financial crisis: Lessons for policy. [NBER working paper 7483]. January 2000. Go to original source...
    21. HAYEK, F. A. 1996. Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle. New York : Augustus M. Kelley, 1996.
    22. CHINN, M. D.; KLETZER, K. M. 1999. International Capital Inflows, Domestic Financial Intermediation and Financial Crises under Imperfect Information. First draft. Santa Cruz : University of California, Department of Economics, September 1999. Go to original source...
    23. CHUNG, R.; FUNG, H. G. 2005. Asian financial crisis: A credit perspective. Credit and Financial Management Review, third quarter, 1998.
    24. International private capital flows. World Economic and social survey. Chpt. III. UN, 2005.
    25. International financial instability and the east Asian crisis. Trade and development report. UNTCAD, 1998, s. 53-77.
    26. JONÁŠ, J. 2002. Argentina: příběh jedné krize. Bankovnictví, 2002, č. 2, s. 26-28; č. 3, s. 27-29.
    27. KAMINSKY, G.; LIZONDO, S.; REINHART, C. 1997. Leading Indicators of Currency Crises. [IMF Working Paper vol. 45], July, s. 1-45. Go to original source...
    28. KAMINSKY, G. 1998. Currency and banking crises: The early warning of distress. Washington, DC : G.Washington University, February 1999. Go to original source...
    29. KAMINSKY, G.; REINHART, C.; VÉGH, C. A. 2004. When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies. NBER, Draft from June 7, 2004. Go to original source...
    30. KRUGMAN, P. 2001. Crises: The next generation? Draft prepared for conference in Tel Aviv, March 25-26, 2001.
    31. MANDEL, M.; TOMŠÍK, V. 2001. Mix monetární a fiskální politiky v České republice: empirická verifikace modelu efektivní tržní klasifikace. Politická ekonomie, 2001, č. 2, s. 163-175. Go to original source...
    32. MINSKY, H. P. 1972. Financial stability revisited: The economics of disaster. In Reappraisal of the Federal Reserve discount mechanism. Board of governors of the FRS, Washington DC, 1972, vol. 3, s. 95-36.
    33. MISHKIN, F. S. 2001. Financial policies and the prevention of financial crises in emerging market economies. The World Bank, October 2001. Go to original source...
    34. MISES, L. 1963. The theory of money and credit. New Haven and London : Yale university press, 1963.
    35. Monthly bulletin, 2006. European central bank, February 2006.
    36. Nonperforming Loan Report: Asia 2002. Ernst and Young, 2002. www.ey.com.
    37. RADALET, S.; SACHS, J. 1998. The East Asian financial crisis: Diagnosis, remedies, prospects. Brooking papers on economic activity, 1998, no. 1, s. 1-74. Go to original source...
    38. RAJAN, R. G. 2006. Has financial development made the world riskier? September 2005. Materiál z prezentace v ČNB, Praha, duben 2006. Go to original source...
    39. RAZIN, A.; SADKA, E.; CHI-WA,YUEN: Excessive FDI Flows under Assymmetric Information. In GLICK, R.; MORENO, R.; SPIEGEL, M. M. (eds.). Fiancial crises in emerging markets. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2001, s. 283-301. Go to original source...
    40. REINHART, C.; ROGOFF, K. S. 2004. Serial default and the paradox of rich to poor capital flows. [NBER Working paper 10296]. February 2004. Go to original source...
    41. ROUBINI, N.; SETSER, B. 2004. Bailouts or Bail-ins? Responding to financial crises in emerging economies. Washington, DC : Institute of international economics, 2004.
    42. SCHNEIDER, M.; TORNELL, A. 2000. Balance sheets effects, bailout guarantees and financial crises. [NBER Working paper no. 8060]. Cambridge (MA), December 2000. Go to original source...
    43. Swedish Schools, Cumulative Process, Wicksell's Theory of Capital, the Production Function, the Marginal Productivity Theory of Distribution. http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/schools/sweden.htm.
    44. TERRONES, M.; MENDOZA, E. 2004. Are credit booms in emerging markets a concern? Chpt. IV. World economic outlook, 2004, no. 4, s. 147-165.
    45. The crises in emerging Asia. 1998. OECD Economic Outlook, IMF, June 1998, s. 9-21.
    46. TOMŠÍK, V. 2006. Mýty o přímých zahraničních investicích. Vystoupení na semináři Zahraniční investice - zázračný lék, 2004. Publikováno 16. 2. 2006, dostupné na www.cep.cz.
    47. WICKSELL, K. 1962. Interest and Prices. New York : Augustus M. Kelly, 1962.
    48. WORLD BANK. East Asia's financial crisis: causes, evolution and prospects. In Global development finance. Chapter 2. Washington, DC : World Bank, 1998.
    49. WRAY, L. R. 2001. Financial instability. [Working paper no. 19]. University of Missouri, July 2001. Go to original source...

    This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.


    Return to the content