Politická ekonomie 2011, 59(1):22-46 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.770

Měnová politika a cena ropy

Jan Hošek, Luboš Komárek, Martin Motl
Česká národní banka.

Monetary Policy and Price of Oil

The article discusses the relationship between monetary policy and price of oil, in broader sense price of commodities. Firstly it focuses on describing the relationship of key macroeconomic variables, gas prices and other commodities against oil prices. Subsequently, it discusses the existence of a "transmission channels" through which monetary policy can be propagated into oil prices (or prices of commodities). Secondly it provides further insight into the forecasting process of the CNB, in both a retrospective look back at the prospects of oil prices in the past and the analysis of transitory and permanent shock (the rise in oil prices of 30 USD/b). Simulated oil price shock is calculated from the average level of Brent oil prices in the first quarter of 2010, i.e. 77.50 USD/b.

Keywords: monetary policy, real interest rate, oil price, oil price shock
JEL classification: C53, E52, N50

Published: February 1, 2011  Show citation

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Hošek, J., Komárek, L., & Motl, M. (2011). Monetary Policy and Price of Oil. Politická ekonomie, 59(1), 22-46. doi: 10.18267/j.polek.770
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