Politická ekonomie 2012, 60(5):590-613 | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.865

Kompozitný predstihový indikátor hospodárskeho cyklu českej ekonomiky

Andrea Tkáčová
Technická univerzita v Košiciach.

Composite Leading Indicator of Czech Business Cycle

The main goal of this paper is to create composite leading indicator for Czech economy and its comparison with composite leading indicators created by OECD and Eurostat. The theoretical part of the paper consists of the methods that are employed for creation composite leading indicator in the world. We compare methods of OECD, Eurostat, Conference Board and the methods of Slovak and Czech authors. The empirical part of the paper is focused on analysis of 120 indicators of Czech economy and their selection on the coincident, lagging and leading indicators. From the group of leading indicators is created new composite leading indicator for Czech economy which can by used on monitoring and short-term prediction of Czech business cycle.

Keywords: business cycle, composite leading indicator, reference series, cyclical indicator
JEL classification: E3, E32

Published: October 1, 2012  Show citation

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Tkáčová, A. (2012). Composite Leading Indicator of Czech Business Cycle. Politická ekonomie60(5), 590-613. doi: 10.18267/j.polek.865
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