Politická ekonomie, 2005 (vol. 53), issue 1

Articles

Politické riziko v tranzitivních ekonomikách a v Evropské Unii

Political risk in transition economies and the European Union

Milan Žák

Politická ekonomie 2005, 53(1) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.493

The article deals with political risk, its definition, assessment and measuring. In the theoretical part different approaches to the definition of political risk are discussed and methodical approaches to its measuring and assessment are explained. The practical part is focused on the analysis of political risk assessment in transition countries of Europe and in countries of former Soviet Union compared to political risks in EU countries. The conclusions indicate that transition economies lag behind substantially in the areas of corruption, law observance and bureaucracy quality. For economic policy it is urgent to improve the quality of the institutional...

Tendence a faktory vývoje hospodářského cyklu v České republice

Trends and factors of the business cycle development in the Czech Republic

Slavoj Czesaný

Politická ekonomie 2005, 53(1) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.494

The goal of analysis of business cycle development in the Czech Republic is to identify causes and consequences of economic activity fluctuations in the 1990 to 2003 period. The approach to analysis of economic activity fluctuations is based on this part of business cycle theory which is oriented to the links between macroeconomic equilibrium and economic growth. Description of contexts between changes in the economic environment, nature of the demand and supply side of the economy and a character of external and internal balance provides the economic framework for the analysis. The decomposition of supply and demand to its components enabled the identification...

ZvláŠtnosti vzniku českého kapitálového trhu

Specific features of the emerging of the czech capital markets

Jan Pudlák, Pavel Neset

Politická ekonomie 2005, 53(1) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.495

Focus is made on the historical circumstances of the arising of the Czech capital markets. Transformation from state-owned enterprises to private businesses and corporations, via coupon (or voucher) privatization, i.e. distribution of shares to a large number of small shareholders, required a tailor made capital markets. Two competitive project were launched: Prague Stock Exchange and RM-System. As investment funds collected investment vouchers and become important shareholders, large packages of shares were formed and new majority shareholders stepped into their rights and powers. The transfer of ownership finished, public markets lost their broad...

Nekonzistence cílování inflace a maastrichtských kritérií: Impossible trinity

Inconsistency of inflation targeting with the maastricht criteria: A case of impossible trinity

Dana Viktorová

Politická ekonomie 2005, 53(1) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.496

The paper discusses the issue of impossible trinity and its potential threat for Central and Eastern European countries operating under an inflation-targeting regime during the convergence process before entering the euro area. The threat of monetary policy inconsistency (the impossible trinity) consists of a conflict of the two monetary aims - the criterion of internal price stability and external stability of exchange rates. Providing study on monetary development in Hungary in 2003, as the National Bank of Hungary fought against the speculative attack on a strong edge of the Hungarian forint's fluctuation band. However, Bank's lowering the interest...

Nový Keynesovský model inflace a jeho empirické ověření

New-Keynesian model of inflation and its empirical verification

Josef Arlt, Miroslav Plašil, Richard Horský

Politická ekonomie 2005, 53(1) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.497

New concepts have been presented in modelling of inflation dynamics recently, among others the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). There are several traditional ways of NKPC model validity testing, but none of them seems to be practically applicable in conditions of the Czech Republic. We tried to test the validity of the NKPC model by the untraditional method proposed by Demery and Duck (2002). This method does not rely on direct estimation of NKPC parameters, but relatively easy tests based on the cointegration analysis of time series are employed. Its application indicates that the NKPC model cannot be considered as effective in conditions of the...

Ohodnotenie výkonnosti verejnej správy: Teoretické východiská a skúsenosti z experimentu v Slovenskej republike

Performance measurement in public administration: Selected theory and experience from Slovakia

Juraj Nemec, Jozef Medveď, Markéta Šumpíková

Politická ekonomie 2005, 53(1) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.498

Public administration significantly changes during last years. One of main reforms is switch from administration to management, based also on implementation of private management tools in the public sector. The impact and outcomes of such approaches are not only positive, especially in specific conditions of Central and Eastern European countries. Because of this such approaches shall be introduced carefuly, and on case by case basis. As the part of public administration reform Slovakia introduced the experiment to measure performance of state administration offices in four dimensions: professional quality of performance (the quality of administrative...

Consultations

Úvod do moderních přístupů analýzy časových řad: Stavově prostorové modely a Kalmanův filtr

Introduction to time series modeling: State space models and Kalman filter

Michal Slavík

Politická ekonomie 2005, 53(1) | DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.499

This contribution undertakes to outline the state space models and the recursive technique called the Kalman filter to a wider audience of the Czech economics readers. One can find both terms in a whole range of empirical studies from recent years. Following this approach also allows us among other things to model unobservable variables such as the potential output or the natural rate of unemployment. The primary motivation of this article is to bring a basic introduction to the reader who does not deal with the time series analysis on an everyday basis and to sketch the roots of state space models and the Kalman filter. Those who are interested can...